{"id":614098,"date":"2024-01-28T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-28T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/28\/sp-sees-the-egp-losing-half-its-value\/"},"modified":"2024-01-28T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-28T00:00:00","slug":"sp-sees-the-egp-losing-half-its-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/28\/sp-sees-the-egp-losing-half-its-value\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P sees the EGP losing half its value"},"content":{"rendered":"

S&P sees a devaluation in our future:<\/strong> S&P Global Ratings is expecting authorities to devalue the EGP to half its current value to unlock the remainder of the IMF package, the rating agency said in a report<\/a>. Once the devaluation is through, S&P sees the EGP trading at \u201ca level that is more in line with the parallel market rate, which is currently at about 60 USD \/ EGP.\u201d The rating agency thinks that \u201cmore clarity on exchange rate policy would benefit trade and economic growth and trigger an increase in remittance inflows.\u201d<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>The central bank has maintained the USD \/ EGP exchange rate at 30.9 since March, despite EGP continuing to fall against the greenback in the parallel market. <\/p>\n

No shocker here:<\/strong> Everyone agrees that a devaluation is on the way and it\u2019s just a question of when and how much. Last we heard, traders are optimistic that the devaluation will be smaller than expected after IMF officials indicated<\/a> that a full float of the EGP may not be in the cards for the immediate future, saying that the Fund is prioritizing getting inflation under control over exchange-rate reform.<\/p>\n

We should know more soon: <\/strong>Representatives from the IMF were in town last week<\/a> to discuss the two long-awaited stalled reviews of the loan program. Although not much has been revealed about the visit, an IMF spokesperson promised updates when the visit wraps up. <\/p>\n

It's not looking good for the country\u2019s banks:<\/strong> \u201cWe expect Egyptian banks' foreign-currency liquidity positions will continue to deteriorate,\u201d the report reads, pointing to the FX crunch. Net foreign assets in commercial banks<\/a> was at a negative USD 15.8 bn in November. <\/p>\n

DEBT WATCH-<\/p>\n

Citibank cuts bullish outlook for Egyptian USD bonds: <\/strong>Citibank has downgraded its recommendation for Egypt\u2019s USD bonds issued in October to \u201cmarketweight,\u201d after giving the bonds an \u201c overweight\u201d recommendation<\/a> last year, Asharq Business<\/a> reports. \u201cIn contrast to our previously optimistic outlook, we now believe the situation has changed with a significant increase in interest rates expected over the next few months, with few signs of positive catalysts so far,\u201d Citibank strategists wrote in a note seen by the outlet.<\/p>\n

SOUND SMART- <\/strong>A marketweight rating is given to fixed-income securities to indicate that their yields align with market expectations \u2014 the rating varies depending on if the yield spread is over, under, or in line with market expectations. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rating agency thinks that \u201cmore clarity on exchange rate policy would benefit trade and economic growth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":614099,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[294,104,72,1666,1653],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-614098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-citigroup","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-exchange-rate","tag-sp","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"544d13ae-78ee-4bf0-af44-34935958906c","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/2275.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"S&P expects Egypt\u2019s EGP to trade close to the black market rate","related_issue":[614093],"teaser":"The rating agency thinks that \u201cmore clarity on exchange rate policy would benefit trade and economic growth","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/1\/.2f17e1f2-4a5f-41de-bde6-6a768554201b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nS&P sees the EGP losing half its value - 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The rating agency believes that Egypt will be able to rely on lenders to satisfy its FX\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/474.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586548,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/14\/bnp-paribas-citi-analysts-think-an-imminent-egp-deval-looks-increasingly-unlikely\/","url_meta":{"origin":614098,"position":1},"title":"BNP Paribas, Citi analysts think an imminent EGP deval looks increasingly unlikely","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Policymakers could wait for FX inflows before any further devaluation","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/697.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577097,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/09\/fitch-cuts-outlook-on-egypt-to-negative-affirms-b-rating\/","url_meta":{"origin":614098,"position":2},"title":"Fitch cuts outlook on Egypt to negative, affirms B+ rating","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has cut its outlook on Egyptian debt from \u201cstable\u201d to \u201cnegative\u201d due to \u201cdeterioration\u201d in the country\u2019s external liquidity position, it said yesterday. The rating agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B+ rating on robust economic growth and \u201cstrong international support\u201d from Gulf allies and multilateral partners but warned that it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/154.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546046,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":614098,"position":3},"title":"S&P, Fitch ratings affirm credit rating at BB, B+, say outlook stable despite Russia-Ukraine war","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P and Fitch Ratings have both affirmed Egypt\u2019s BB and B+ credit ratings with a stable outlook, despite surging food and energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances, the two ratings agencies said last week (here and here). The agencies attributed their affirmed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/351.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548774,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/22\/egypt-could-opt-for-soft-egp-devaluation-to-stave-off-inflation-moodys\/","url_meta":{"origin":614098,"position":4},"title":"Egypt could opt for soft EGP devaluation to stave off inflation -Moody\u2019s","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s is the latest to speculate on the fate of the EGP: Egyptian policymakers will likely choose to maintain a close watch on the EGP and allow it to ease gradually against the greenback to avoid exacerbating inflationary pressures, Moody\u2019s says in a report picked up by the regional press.The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/344.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597660,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/13\/what-the-pundits-are-saying-about-our-economy-this-morning-from-expectations-of-devaluation-to-a-possible-moodys-downgrade\/","url_meta":{"origin":614098,"position":5},"title":"What the pundits are saying about our economy this morning, from expectations of devaluation to a possible Moody\u2019s downgrade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s is watching the reform program closely, while Citigroup is turning bearish on our USD bonds","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/545.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/614098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=614098"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/614098\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/614093"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/614099"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=614098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=614098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=614098"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=614098"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=614098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}