{"id":613763,"date":"2024-01-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-21T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/21\/imf-officials-are-in-town-for-loan-discussions-plus-moodys-downgrades-our-credit-outlook\/"},"modified":"2024-01-21T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-21T00:00:00","slug":"imf-officials-are-in-town-for-loan-discussions-plus-moodys-downgrades-our-credit-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/21\/imf-officials-are-in-town-for-loan-discussions-plus-moodys-downgrades-our-credit-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF officials are in town for loan discussions. PLUS: Moody\u2019s downgrades our credit outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Another round of IMF talks is underway: <\/strong>Representatives from the IMF, led by themission chief for Egypt Ivanna Hollar, are in town to discuss the two long-stalled reviews of Egypt\u2019s loan program, an IMF spokesperson told Reuters<\/a> on Friday. The visit comes on the heels of IMF Mideast and Central Asia head Jihad Azour\u2019s trip to Cairo, where he met with Egyptian authorities and \u201cregional stakeholders,\u201d the spokesperson added. Updates and outcomes will follow the end of Hollar\u2019s visit, the spokesperson added.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s on the agenda?<\/strong> Cabinet spokesperson Mohamed El Homsani had mentioned<\/a> earlier this month that IMF officials are likely to pay Egypt a visit in January to finalize the timeframe for the Fund\u2019s new loan to the country. Asharq Business<\/a> also reported yesterday, citing people it says attended the meetings, that Sovereign Fund of Egypt head Ayman Soliman, and Planning Minister Hala El Said held hours-long talks with the IMF team, briefing them on the state\u2019s structural reform program and other economic performance indicators.<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>The IMF postponed reviews scheduled for March and September of 2023 afterauthorities failed to meet several conditions of the facility. Unlocking the remainder of the facility is contingent on the reviews happening \u2014 the first and second reviews should release almost USD 700 mn. The Fund will need to sign off on the two reviews before any announcement is made about potentially topping up the loan. <\/p>\n

What are the conditions?<\/strong> The Fund wants Egypt to fulfill key policy requirements \u2014 includingtighter fiscal and monetary policy, and moving towards a flexible exchange rate \u2014 before signing off on the first two reviews, the Fund\u2019s communications head Julie Kozack reiterated<\/a> last week. <\/p>\n

We\u2019ve seen mounting signs of a larger package: <\/strong>Kozack said that a larger package would be\u201ccritical\u201d for the success of Egypt\u2019s loan, amid the growing strain on the economy triggered by Israel\u2019s war on Gaza and its impact on tourism and Red Sea trade movement. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in November<\/a> that the Fund was \u201cseriously considering\u201d increasing Egypt\u2019s USD 3 bn loan program. <\/p>\n

How much are we talking? <\/strong>Talk show host Lamees El Hadidi told viewers<\/a> that she was told by unnamed sources that the authorities are in talks with the Fund over potentially raising the value of the loan to USD 10-12 bn, up from the USD 3 bn originally pencilled in by the Fund. Previous unconfirmed reports<\/a> in October said that the government was looking boost its loan to USD 5 bn.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next?<\/strong> The IMF delegation is also expected to hold meetings with the ministries of transport, oil, and finance along with the Central Bank of Egypt and other institutions in the next few days, according to the outlet.<\/p>\n

MOODY\u2019S DOWNGRADES EGYPT\u2019S CREDIT OUTLOOK- <\/p>\n

IMF progress is not enough to remedy Egypt\u2019s credit outlook:<\/strong>Moody\u2019s hasdowngraded Egypt\u2019s credit outlook to negative from stable, affirming its Caa1 rating \u2014 seven rungs into junk territory \u2014 the credit rating agency wrote<\/a> on Thursday. The agency cites concerns that IMF support may be insufficient to ward off macroeconomic challenges and currency instability in the country. <\/p>\n

Foreign debt will weigh more heavily as the EGP depreciates in value: <\/strong>Interest payments are expected to burn up to two thirds of the government\u2019s revenues by the end of fiscal year 2023-2024 due to the widening gap between the official USD-EGP exchange rate and the parallel market rate, the report noted. \u201cWhile a debt restructuring in the near term is not Moody's current baseline expectation, the risks have increased,\u201d it added. <\/p>\n

It seems Lamees Al Hadidi isn\u2019t the only one predicting a larger package: <\/strong>\u201cMoody's assigns a high likelihood to a program enhancement to up to USD 10 bn from the previously approved USD 3 bn,\u201d Moody\u2019s said. <\/p>\n

ICYMI: <\/strong>Moody\u2019s last downgraded<\/a> Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating in October on the back ofworsening debt affordability and the impact of the FX crunch on the state\u2019s ability to meet repayments. Moody\u2019s cut Egypt\u2019s rating to Caa1 with a stable outlook from B3. <\/p>\n

FinMin reax:<\/strong> The government is working \u201cwith extreme caution\u201d to manage the risks of geopolitical tension and successive economic headwinds, the Finance Ministry said<\/a> on Friday, adding that Moody\u2019s outlook did not take into account the state privatization program, which is expected to reduce the need for external financing for the coming two years.<\/p>\n

EGP WATCH: <\/strong>The EGP weakened to a record low<\/a> against the greenback in the parallel marketover the weekend, with local media reporting that the currency is changing hands at more than EGP 60.0 per USD, almost double the official exchange rate of EGP 30.96.<\/p>\n

But remember, the usual caveats apply:<\/strong> The parallel market is by definition thin and opaque, making it difficult to figure out what a fair value is. The exchange rate on the parallel market depends on where you are, who you are, and what you\u2019re buying.<\/p>\n

The war on Gaza is partially to blame<\/strong>, hurting our already dwindling FX reserves. The warhas delayed<\/a> the resumption of Egypt\u2019s LNG exports, which were already on hold due to a long summer heatwave and declining local production, meanwhile disruptions to the Red Sea trade movement has halted<\/a> much of the traffic passing through the Suez Canal, causing revenues from the canal since the beginning of the year to decline 40% y-o-y<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The international press also has the story:<\/strong>Bloomberg<\/a> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Currency weakness means that even IMF support may be \u201cinsufficient\u201d to stave off Egypt\u2019s growing debt burden, Moody\u2019s says<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":613764,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,1419,72,655,272,1324,7103],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-613763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-imf","tag-moodys","tag-suez-canal","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6ce5a6d0-407b-42ea-a58b-ae7eaab021f3","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/1\/1648.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF officials are in Egypt to discuss loan program. 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Statements from the IMF and cabinet yesterday confirmed that the two sides are in talks on a new program, though it remains unclear what kind of assistance the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/336.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":581328,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/08\/moodys-downgrades-egypts-credit-rating-for-first-time-since-2013\/","url_meta":{"origin":613763,"position":2},"title":"Moody\u2019s downgrades Egypt\u2019s credit rating for first time since 2013","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Due to reduced external buffers and shock absorption capacity","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/EGP-1600.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597660,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/13\/what-the-pundits-are-saying-about-our-economy-this-morning-from-expectations-of-devaluation-to-a-possible-moodys-downgrade\/","url_meta":{"origin":613763,"position":3},"title":"What the pundits are saying about our economy this morning, from expectations of devaluation to a possible Moody\u2019s downgrade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 August 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s is watching the reform program closely, while Citigroup is turning bearish on our USD bonds","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/545.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547846,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/17\/imf-talks-were-productive-but-theres-no-new-help-just-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":613763,"position":4},"title":"IMF talks were \u201cproductive,\u201d but there\u2019s no new help just yet","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cProductive discussions\u201d with the IMF \u2014 but no agreement yet: The IMF and Egyptian officials held \u201cproductive discussions\u201d on a fresh assistance programme during recent meetings in Cairo, the Fund and a government spokesperson said in separate statements this past Friday. The staff-level talks, which took place between 26 June\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/7\/163.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546412,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/16\/an-agreement-with-the-imf-is-coming-within-months\/","url_meta":{"origin":613763,"position":5},"title":"An agreement with the IMF is coming \u201cwithin months\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A fresh IMF program could be sealed in a few months: The government expects to reach an agreement with the IMF on a fresh support package \u201cwithin months\u201d, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said yesterday at a presser (watch, runtime:2:07:15).What IMF program? 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