{"id":612940,"date":"2024-01-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/04\/a-sneak-peek-of-next-fiscal-years-budget\/"},"modified":"2024-01-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-01-04T00:00:00","slug":"a-sneak-peek-of-next-fiscal-years-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/01\/04\/a-sneak-peek-of-next-fiscal-years-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"A sneak peek of next fiscal year\u2019s budget"},"content":{"rendered":"

What can we expect from next fiscal year\u2019s budget? <\/strong>Yesterday, we got our firstglance at the Finance Ministry\u2019s fiscal projections for the fiscal year 2024-2025, giving us the government\u2019s initial targets for growth, inflation, deficit, and primary surplus for the year. The budget call circularseen by Enterprise also laid out revised projections for the current fiscal year. <\/p>\n

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GROWTH- <\/p>\n

Growth to pick up: <\/strong>The Madbouly government sees the economy growing at a 4.7% clip in thecoming fiscal year from an estimated 3.0% in FY 2023-2024 and 4.2% the year before. <\/p>\n

This year\u2019s growth forecast slashed again: <\/strong>This year\u2019s growth projections are 0.5 percentagepoints lower than Planning Minister Hala El Said\u2019s latest forecast<\/a>. Last month, the minister said she expects the economy to grow at a 3.5% clip in the fiscal year ending June 2024. <\/p>\n

A little less optimistic than international monitors:<\/strong> The IMF<\/a>, the World Bank<\/a>, and S&P<\/a><\/a>Global<\/a> penciled in 3.5-3.7% growth in FY 2023-24 late last year.<\/p>\n

But more optimistic than one: <\/strong>Capital Economics expects the economy growing \u201cwell belowconsensus expectations\u201d at 2.5% this fiscal year and 3.8% for the next year. \u201cOver the remainder of this fiscal year and heading into FY 2024-25, the growth outlook is pretty bleak,\u201d MENA economist James Swanston wrote in a note seen by Enterprise<\/p>\n

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INFLATION- <\/p>\n

Ambitious inflation targets: <\/strong>The government is hoping to see annual headline inflation fall toan average of 15% for the upcoming fiscal year, a significant drop from the estimated 38% for the current year.<\/p>\n

Other targets:<\/strong><\/p>\n