{"id":611389,"date":"2023-12-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/12\/06\/private-sector-optimism-hits-record-low-on-inflation-currency-woes\/"},"modified":"2023-12-06T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-12-06T00:00:00","slug":"private-sector-optimism-hits-record-low-on-inflation-currency-woes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/12\/06\/private-sector-optimism-hits-record-low-on-inflation-currency-woes\/","title":{"rendered":"Private-sector optimism hits record low on inflation, currency woes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Three years and counting:<\/strong> Economic headwinds buffeting Egypt\u2019s non-oil private sector continued in November as inflationary pressures weighed on demand and sent business confidence to record lows, according to S&P Global\u2019s purchasing managers\u2019 index (pdf)<\/a>. The downturns in demand and output eased slightly during the month, resulting in a marginal improvement in the headline PMI figure, but continued to decline \u201csolidly,\u201d S&P Global said. The PMI came in at 48.4 in November, up slightly from 47.9 in October<\/a>.<\/p>\n

November 2020 seems like a long time ago:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s PMI has not climbed above 50.0 \u2014 the threshold that separates growth from contraction \u2014 since November 2020, making last month the third anniversary of the private-sector downturn.<\/p>\n

Inflation + import backlog dragged output down: <\/strong>High inflation continued to \u201cdepress customer demand,\u201d while unresolved import problems drove down production in a number of sectors, namely among wholesale and retail companies. Companies also hiked their prices at a faster rate in November to offset higher production costs triggered by currency weakness and supply shortages.<\/p>\n

Businesses are not confident about what next year has in store:<\/strong> Business sentiment fell to its lowest levels since at least April 2012 when data collection began. The survey data showed that pessimism about output levels over the next 12 months also sank to an all-time low, with businesses expecting inflation to continue to depress demand and raise input costs.<\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> Inflation has soared to record highs this year on the back of successive currency devaluations and a chronic shortage of FX. Authorities are widely expected to devalue the EGP again and raise interest rates to new multi-decade highs following this month\u2019s presidential election, a move which would trigger a new bout of inflation and further weigh on economic activity.<\/p>\n

Optimism is in short supply: <\/strong>\u201cOptimism in the Egyptian non-oil economy is eroding as we approach the end of the year,\u201d said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. \u201cWhile the resulting downturns in new business and output were not as severe compared to those seen at the start of the year, they are also showing no signs of letting up, stretching a sequence of decline that goes back to late-2021.\u201d<\/p>\n

ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION- Saudi growth eases: <\/strong>Non-oil private sector activity in Saudi Arabia eased to 57.5 in November from October\u2019s four-month high of 58.4, according to the PMI (pdf)<\/a>. The report attributed the drop to \u201cmoderations in the rate of staff and inventory growth, as well as a sharp reduction in delivery times.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Activity in country\u2019s non-oil private sector has now been in contraction for the past three years<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":611390,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,2234,185],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-611389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-pmi","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"875fb710-43e4-4bd4-809a-6297270f25bf","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/12\/375.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Optimism in Egypt\u2019s private sector hits record low on inflation, currency woes","related_issue":[611384],"teaser":"Activity in country\u2019s non-oil private sector has now been in contraction for the past three years","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/12\/.effa8a36-9351-4420-957c-0ff51c9e891f.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nPrivate-sector optimism hits record low on inflation, currency woes - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/12\/06\/private-sector-optimism-hits-record-low-on-inflation-currency-woes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Private-sector optimism hits record low on inflation, currency woes\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Activity in 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NBD\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/535.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544469,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/06\/pmi-says-youre-not-optimistic-but-our-survey-said-you-are\/","url_meta":{"origin":611389,"position":4},"title":"PMI says you\u2019re not optimistic, but our survey said you are\u2026","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Non-oil business activity in Egypt saw a \u201csolid decline\u201d in February as inflationary pressures continued to impact business confidence and demand, according to IHS Markit\u2019s purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI) survey (pdf). The contraction eased slightly to 48.1 from 47.9 in January but concerns about economic conditions sent confidence levels to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/54.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576986,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/06\/private-sector-activity-contracts-for-23rd-consecutive-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":611389,"position":5},"title":"Private sector activity contracts for 23rd consecutive month","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Activity in Egypt\u2019s non-oil private sector continued to contract in October, remaining effectively unchanged from the month before as inflation, supply disruptions, and falling demand abroad continued to weigh on businesses, according to S&P Global\u2019s purchasing managers\u2019 index (pdf). 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