{"id":609855,"date":"2023-11-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/12\/inflation-eases-for-the-first-time-in-five-months-in-october-slower-than-analyst-expectations\/"},"modified":"2023-11-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-12T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-eases-for-the-first-time-in-five-months-in-october-slower-than-analyst-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/12\/inflation-eases-for-the-first-time-in-five-months-in-october-slower-than-analyst-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation eases for the first time in five months in October, slower than analyst expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s been a while since we\u2019ve had good inflation news:<\/strong> Annual urban inflation in October eased for the first time in six months on the back of slowing food and beverage price inflation. Consumer prices in urban areas decelerated to 35.8% y-o-y from 38.0% in September<\/a>, marking October as the first reprieve since April, according to figures released<\/a> yesterday by state statistics agency Capmas. Headline inflation has been running above 30% since February on the back of a series of currency devaluations and the FX crunch. <\/p>\n

The figure came in lower than expected:<\/strong> The median forecast in a recent Reuters poll<\/a> saw annual inflation easing to 37.1%. Analysts in a CNBC poll, however, predicted an acceleration of between 0.5-1.5%. <\/p>\n

What to look for next: <\/strong>Core inflation figures are due out today from the central bank.<\/p>\n

We were also none the wiser:<\/strong> Analysts w<\/a>e spoke with<\/a> were split on which way the inflation figures would go, with some worrying that the parallel market would continue to put pressure on prices and others believing the Madbouly government\u2019s curbs on key food items would pay dividends.<\/p>\n

You can thank food and beverage prices:<\/strong> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest components of the basket of goods and services used to calculate inflation \u2014 slipped to 71.3% y-o-y from a record high of 73.6% in September. This is the first time food inflation has slowed since April. <\/p>\n

What changed?<\/strong> The government agreed with private food producers to cut prices of 10 key<\/a>food items by 15-25%<\/a> from the middle of October in a bid to reel in inflation.<\/p>\n

Monthly inflation figures are also back on a downward trend:<\/strong> October put monthly inflation back on a downward trend, coming at 1.0%, down from 2.0% in September.<\/p>\n

The intensifying FX crunch means this isn\u2019t over -Goldman:<\/strong> \u201cThe weakening of the EGP in the parallel market suggests broader upward pressure on domestic prices going forward,\u201d Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a report picked up by Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cThis is likely to keep real interest rates deep in negative territory in the months to come\u201d and necessitate further interest rate hikes.<\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> The EGP has weakened to record lows against the greenback in the parallel market in recent weeks as pressure builds on the currency. The currency was trading at 48.0 to the USD compared to the 30.9 official exchange rate on Thursday, according to traders<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The international press also has the story:<\/strong>Reuters<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Food inflation slowed for the first time since April<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":609856,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,271,104,72,564,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-609855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-food","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c463d2d9-390f-4e0c-b240-5dbf10bf591a","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/11\/532.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt inflation eases for the first time in five months in October, slower than analyst expectations","related_issue":[609846],"teaser":"Food inflation slowed for the first time since April","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/11\/.7f30e409-ac44-4e1b-be2c-3547ec9c2221.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nInflation eases for the first time in five months in October, slower than analyst expectations - 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Annual urban inflation jumped to 13.1% last month from 10.5% in March, according to figures (pdf) released by statistics agency\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/136.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577923,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/11\/inflation-accelerates-to-five-year-high-in-november\/","url_meta":{"origin":609855,"position":3},"title":"Inflation accelerates to five-year high in November","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Deval drives inflation to five-year high: Urban annual inflation accelerated to 18.7% in November, up from 16.2% in October, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas. November\u2019s inflation figures are the highest in nearly five years, driven primarily by rising food and beverage prices. On a month-on-month basis, urban\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/181.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567942,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/13\/food-prices-drive-inflation-rate-to-five-month-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":609855,"position":4},"title":"Food prices drive inflation rate to five-month high","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month to 5.7% in November from 4.6% in October, according to Capmas figures (pdf) released on Thursday. The increase was driven by higher food prices, which single-handedly brought annual inflation to its highest since May. Monthly headline figures remained muted at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/220.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542673,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/11\/urban-inflation-rises-to-5-9-in-december-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":609855,"position":5},"title":"Urban inflation rises to 5.9% in December, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose to 5.9% in December from 5.6% in November, ending a two-month downward trend despite a slowdown in food price inflation, according to figures released yesterday by statistics agency Capmas. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/609855","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=609855"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/609855\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/609846"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/609856"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=609855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=609855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=609855"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=609855"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=609855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}