{"id":609729,"date":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/09\/a-case-for-optimism-on-the-egp\/"},"modified":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","slug":"a-case-for-optimism-on-the-egp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/09\/a-case-for-optimism-on-the-egp\/","title":{"rendered":"A case for optimism on the EGP"},"content":{"rendered":"

We need a foreign currency liquidity buffer of between USD 8-10 bn to get through the FX <\/strong>crunch<\/strong> and go ahead with a successful float in the coming months, according to a note to clients by EFG Hermes lead MENA economist Mohamed Abu Basha seen by Enterprise. Better yet, he thinks it could be within reach.<\/p>\n

The rationale:<\/strong> EFG Hermes produced the estimate \u201cafter considering current levels of FX backlogs, as well as enough buffers for the [Central Bank of Egypt] to ensure sustained liquidity in the interbank markets for an extended period of time as it ensure the return of confidence back to the market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where the money\u2019s coming from: privatization, debt, state revenues.<\/strong> EFG Hermes is confident that the Madbouly government will raise another USD 1 bn from the sale of state assets over the next three months, taking total proceeds from the privatization program to almost USD 3 bn. Recent debt agreements with the UAE<\/a> and China<\/a> have contributed a further USD 2.4 bn, in addition to inflows from revenue-raising measures such as the car import<\/a> and the military service settlement<\/a> schemes. <\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> The government wants to raise another USD 5 bn<\/a> from its offering program between November and June, and is working on the sale of a number of assets including two military-owned companies<\/a>, wind farms<\/a>, and one of the Siemens-built combined-cycle power plants<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, Abu Basha sees signs that the \u201cEGP\u2019s adjustment is coming close to an end.\u201d <\/strong>He notes evidence that FX is \u201caccumulating in the economy,\u201d particularly in the form of corporate foreign-currency deposits, which \u201chave risen by USD 5 bn in the 18 months to August, hitting a historic all-time high of USD 17.5 bn.\u201d Add \u201cgenuine improvement in CA dynamics \u2026 and extended stability of the parallel market rate\u201d from May through mid-October, and it feels likely that we\u2019re reaching a juncture where a resolution could be possible.<\/p>\n

So, w<\/strong>here does the EGP land against the greenback?<\/strong> \u201cWe see the EGP 40<\/strong> mark as being an eventual area of stability for the EGP when the FX market clears,\u201d Abu Basha wrote. <\/p>\n

A credible exchange rate will trigger significant inflows from both investors and folks in <\/strong>Egypt who have USD under their proverbial mattresses. <\/strong>\u201cAn EGP closer to the 40-mark would primarily translate into an EGP that is nearly as cheap as it was post the 2016 devaluation \u2026 providing an attractive entry point for foreign investors<\/strong>.\u201dIt could also see some USD 12-14 bn enter the system as individuals holding USD or trading currency in the parallel market return to safty. Factoring in Egyptian expats, this could increase to USD 20 bn if easing FX liquidity conditions convinces them to bring money into the country.<\/p>\n

Now is the time for policymakers to act:<\/strong> \u201cA longer time period opens room for downside risks, as was the case in the past two weeks, with a rally in the parallel market<\/a>. An elevated FX rate at this stage would not necessarily bode well for debt dynamics, in addition to magnifying inflationary pressures,\u201d Abu Basha wrote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some USD 8 bn could be raised in the coming months via asset sales, liabilities agreements, and government initiatives<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":609730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,84,72,2234,587],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-609729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-efg-hermes","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-state-privatization-program","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dd5e5da8-31cd-45c6-b958-b8a46f77e544","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/11\/438.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"Egypt needs USD 8-10 bn to address the FX crunch, says EFG Hermes","full_issue_title":"Egypt needs USD 8-10 bn to address the FX crunch, says EFG Hermes","related_issue":[609724],"teaser":"Some USD 8 bn could be raised in the coming months via asset sales, liabilities agreements, and government initiatives","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/11\/.aa98ef2e-4ac1-4a7b-bcd7-21fc2c9d9653.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nA case for optimism on the EGP - 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The commitments, which are well above an initial target of USD 50-100\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566684,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/07\/big-esg-private-equity-funding-coming-courtesy-of-efg\/","url_meta":{"origin":609729,"position":2},"title":"Big ESG private equity funding coming, courtesy of EFG","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"EFG Hermes makes first USD 200 mn close for Vortex Energy IV fund: EFG Hermes announced its first close of USD 200 mn for the fourth fund of its flagship renewable energy platform Vortex Energy, including a USD 25 mn of conditional commitment, the company said in a press release\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: GREEN ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: GREEN ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-green-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/347.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591515,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/09\/egx-needs-larger-companies-to-attract-more-foreign-investment-efg-hermes-ceo\/","url_meta":{"origin":609729,"position":3},"title":"EGX needs larger companies to attract more foreign investment -EFG Hermes CEO","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"IPO WATCH- EGX needs larger companies to attract more foreign investment -EFG Hermes CEO: The Egyptian bourse needs to attract larger companies to list on the index if it is going to increase foreign inflows into Egyptian equities, EFG Hermes CEO Karim Awad said at a conference yesterday, Al Mal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546608,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/23\/pif-eyes-united-bank-amid-state-privatization-push\/","url_meta":{"origin":609729,"position":4},"title":"PIF eyes United Bank amid state privatization push","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Saudi sovereign wealth fund is considering making a bid to acquire United Bank, Hapi Journal reported yesterday, citing sources it claims have knowledge of the transaction. The Public Investment Fund\u2019s play for UB comes amid a backdrop of an influx of investment from our friends in the Gulf, part\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "M&A WATCH"","block_context":{"text":"M&A WATCH","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/ma-watch\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/294.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":650611,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/03\/28\/earnings-watch-gb-auto-efg-hermes-release-4q-fy2016-results\/","url_meta":{"origin":609729,"position":5},"title":"Earnings watch: GB Auto, EFG Hermes release 4Q\/FY2016 results","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 March 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"EARNINGS WATCH - GB Auto reported a net loss of EGP 865.7 mn in 2016, compared with a netprofit of EGP 233.1 mn in 2015, the company said in its earnings filing. 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