{"id":609729,"date":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/09\/a-case-for-optimism-on-the-egp\/"},"modified":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","slug":"a-case-for-optimism-on-the-egp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/09\/a-case-for-optimism-on-the-egp\/","title":{"rendered":"A case for optimism on the EGP"},"content":{"rendered":"

We need a foreign currency liquidity buffer of between USD 8-10 bn to get through the FX <\/strong>crunch<\/strong> and go ahead with a successful float in the coming months, according to a note to clients by EFG Hermes lead MENA economist Mohamed Abu Basha seen by Enterprise. Better yet, he thinks it could be within reach.<\/p>\n

The rationale:<\/strong> EFG Hermes produced the estimate \u201cafter considering current levels of FX backlogs, as well as enough buffers for the [Central Bank of Egypt] to ensure sustained liquidity in the interbank markets for an extended period of time as it ensure the return of confidence back to the market.\u201d<\/p>\n

Where the money\u2019s coming from: privatization, debt, state revenues.<\/strong> EFG Hermes is confident that the Madbouly government will raise another USD 1 bn from the sale of state assets over the next three months, taking total proceeds from the privatization program to almost USD 3 bn. Recent debt agreements with the UAE<\/a> and China<\/a> have contributed a further USD 2.4 bn, in addition to inflows from revenue-raising measures such as the car import<\/a> and the military service settlement<\/a> schemes. <\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> The government wants to raise another USD 5 bn<\/a> from its offering program between November and June, and is working on the sale of a number of assets including two military-owned companies<\/a>, wind farms<\/a>, and one of the Siemens-built combined-cycle power plants<\/a>.<\/p>\n

With that in mind, Abu Basha sees signs that the \u201cEGP\u2019s adjustment is coming close to an end.\u201d <\/strong>He notes evidence that FX is \u201caccumulating in the economy,\u201d particularly in the form of corporate foreign-currency deposits, which \u201chave risen by USD 5 bn in the 18 months to August, hitting a historic all-time high of USD 17.5 bn.\u201d Add \u201cgenuine improvement in CA dynamics \u2026 and extended stability of the parallel market rate\u201d from May through mid-October, and it feels likely that we\u2019re reaching a juncture where a resolution could be possible.<\/p>\n

So, w<\/strong>here does the EGP land against the greenback?<\/strong> \u201cWe see the EGP 40<\/strong> mark as being an eventual area of stability for the EGP when the FX market clears,\u201d Abu Basha wrote. <\/p>\n

A credible exchange rate will trigger significant inflows from both investors and folks in <\/strong>Egypt who have USD under their proverbial mattresses. <\/strong>\u201cAn EGP closer to the 40-mark would primarily translate into an EGP that is nearly as cheap as it was post the 2016 devaluation \u2026 providing an attractive entry point for foreign investors<\/strong>.\u201dIt could also see some USD 12-14 bn enter the system as individuals holding USD or trading currency in the parallel market return to safty. Factoring in Egyptian expats, this could increase to USD 20 bn if easing FX liquidity conditions convinces them to bring money into the country.<\/p>\n

Now is the time for policymakers to act:<\/strong> \u201cA longer time period opens room for downside risks, as was the case in the past two weeks, with a rally in the parallel market<\/a>. An elevated FX rate at this stage would not necessarily bode well for debt dynamics, in addition to magnifying inflationary pressures,\u201d Abu Basha wrote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Some USD 8 bn could be raised in the coming months via asset sales, liabilities agreements, and government initiatives<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":609730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,84,72,2234,587],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-609729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-efg-hermes","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-state-privatization-program","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dd5e5da8-31cd-45c6-b958-b8a46f77e544","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/11\/438.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"Egypt needs USD 8-10 bn to address the FX crunch, says EFG Hermes","full_issue_title":"Egypt needs USD 8-10 bn to address the FX crunch, says EFG Hermes","related_issue":[609724],"teaser":"Some USD 8 bn could be raised in the coming months via asset sales, liabilities agreements, and government initiatives","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/11\/.aa98ef2e-4ac1-4a7b-bcd7-21fc2c9d9653.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nA case for optimism on the EGP - 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