{"id":609726,"date":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/09\/egyptian-stocks-gold-hit-record-highs-on-currency-fears\/"},"modified":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T00:00:00","slug":"egyptian-stocks-gold-hit-record-highs-on-currency-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/11\/09\/egyptian-stocks-gold-hit-record-highs-on-currency-fears\/","title":{"rendered":"Egyptian stocks, gold hit record highs on currency fears"},"content":{"rendered":"

We love the smell of optimism in the morning. <\/strong>Yes, there\u2019s a risk that we just let our inner Pollyanna loose. <\/p>\n

But still: A little bit of light amid all of the gloom is most welcome.<\/strong> This morning, that takes the form of a research note from EFG Hermes offering a (cautiously optimistic) case for our being in the final stage of our FX crunch.<\/p>\n

Also: <\/strong>Multinational lender Standard Chartered is pushing ahead with plans to open here and a Saudi healthcare investor is eyeing a stake in UCP \u2014 signs of investor interest in our fair country. <\/p>\n

And:<\/strong> Dice\u2019s founders really, really want to buy their company back.<\/p>\n

As the SFE\u2019s Ayman Soliman has said over and over again: It\u2019s all about sentiment.<\/strong> There are plenty of people out there (public and private market investors and strategics alike) who believe in the business case for Egypt. What they need is a clear signal that they can commit capital today and not see the value of their investment halved the next day (in USD terms). <\/p>\n

Onward:<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> PSA #1- Foreigners with expired residency permits are being given a little more<\/strong> time to sort everything out: <\/strong>The government has extended the deadline announced<\/a> in August for foreign residents who have overstayed their residency permits to legalize their stay in the country, according to a cabinet statement<\/a>. The deadline to settle the USD 1k fine<\/a> and arrange an Egyptian host has now been pushed back three months to the middle of March, from its initial December deadline. <\/p>\n

PSA #2- Fall weather may finally be upon us. <\/strong>Next week could see daytime highs of in the mid-to-high 20s and overnight lows in the mid-teens, according to our favorite weather app, suggesting an end to the unseasonably warm weather may be in the works. Look for a chance of a shower in the early morning hours of Sunday. <\/p>\n

PSA #3- University students who want to study in Egypt have until Saturday to register. <\/strong>The government\u2019s university admission portal Study in Egypt<\/a> has extended the registration deadline for international students wanting to transfer to Egyptian universities from abroad until Saturday, according to a statement (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n

INFLATION FIGURES LAND TODAY- <\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> There\u2019s little consensus about what we\u2019re going to find when Capmas and the <\/strong>Central Bank of Egypt publish October\u2019s inflation data later today.<\/strong> Seven analysts we spoke to are split down the middle about what happened, with three forecasting inflation to accelerate to a new record high, three predicting a dip, and one expecting no change. <\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>Inflation reached an all-time high of 38% in September<\/a> as the effects of a series of currency devaluations combined with seasonal factors to keep the upward pressure on prices.<\/p>\n

What should you expect? <\/strong><\/p>\n

ON ONE HAND- Food inflation to slow on government price curbs? <\/strong>Annual inflation for October will decrease to between 37.1-37.2% due to the government\u2019s initiative<\/a> to reduce the prices of basic commodities, as well as the customs exemption handed to producers and retailers, said Ahmed Nashy, head of the research department at CFI Financial.<\/p>\n

Remember:<\/strong> The government agreed with business leaders during the middle of the month to reduce prices of 10 staple foods by 15-25%.<\/p>\n

ON THE OTHER- Currency pressures could weigh on prices:<\/strong> \u201cInflation may reach 39% or a little more due to the widening gap between the exchange rate of the EGP against the USD in the parallel and official markets and the continued pressure on commodity prices,\u201d said Mostafa Shafie, head of research at Arabeya Online Brokerage.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no consensus among the international press either:<\/strong><\/p>\n