{"id":609113,"date":"2023-10-31T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-31T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/31\/analysts-split-on-egypt-interest-rate-path-ahead-of-central-bank-meeting\/"},"modified":"2023-10-31T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-31T00:00:00","slug":"analysts-split-on-egypt-interest-rate-path-ahead-of-central-bank-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/31\/analysts-split-on-egypt-interest-rate-path-ahead-of-central-bank-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts split on Egypt interest rate path ahead of central bank meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"

Where<\/strong> rates currently stand: <\/strong>The overnight deposit rate stands at 19.25%, while the overnight lending rate is 20.25%, and the main operation and disc. rates are at 19.75%. Rates have risen 1.1k bps since March 2022.<\/p>\n

Interest rate hikes seem to be losing their ability to curb inflation: <\/strong>Several analysts said that the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates further because the policy tool seems to be losing its ability to control inflation. \u201cIn my opinion, the stubborn inflation rate has now lost the ability to interact with interest rate changes,\u201d banking expert Mohamed Abdel Aal told Enterprise.<\/p>\n

Inflation at record highs despite aggressive hikes:<\/strong> Inflation reached<\/a> a fresh all-time high of 38% last month and has been running above 30% since February, despite the central bank aggressively raising interest rates to their highest levels since the early 1990s. Zilla Capital\u2019s Aya Zoheir puts this down to the FX crunch. The central bank is \u201cfully convinced that without abundant USD liquidity in the exchange market, the interest rate tool will not achieve any targeted effect of reducing inflation,\u201d she told us. <\/p>\n

Weighing the costs: <\/strong>\u201cRaising the interest rate alone during the current situation will be an additional burden on the budget without a significant desired benefit,\u201d Al Ahly Pharos\u2019 Israa Ahmed told Enterprise. A 100 bps increase in interest rates will add at least EGP 70 bn to the government\u2019s interest bill, economic expert Medhat Nafie said.<\/p>\n

Plus, inflation might be stabilizing:<\/strong> That\u2019s according to EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha, who expects the CBE to leave rates unchanged due to \u201cthe near-stability\u201d of inflation rates.<\/p>\n

The anticipated devaluation will be in mind:<\/strong> Policymakers will want to maximize the policy space available to them when they go ahead with the anticipated EGP devaluation at the end of this year or in early 2024. Any rate hikes done this week will limit how much they can tighten policy to stabilize the currency following the devaluation.<\/p>\n

But <\/strong>the FX crunch may force the CBE to act sooner: <\/strong>A third of the analysts and economists that responded to our poll predicted that interest rates will be raised in Thursday\u2019s meeting and pointed to FX shortages as one of the main culprits. HC Securities\u2019 Heba Mounir expects it to raise rates by 100 bps to \u201cdefend the currency against dollarization and purchases of gold by Egyptian citizens,\u201d followed by an additional 100 bps before the end of the year. <\/p>\n

Volatility spiked in the parallel currency market last week:<\/strong> The EGP fell to a record low<\/a> against the greenback in the black market last week in the wake of the central bank\u2019s restrictions on credit card use<\/a>. The FX liquidity squeeze and pressure on the exchange rate is going to require the CBE to raise rates by 200-300 bps during the next two MPC meetings, said Ali Metwally, an analyst at UK-based risk assessment firm Infospectrum<\/a>. Meanwhile, Zilla Capital\u2019s Aya Zoheir predicts a 150-200 bps rate hike at the December meeting.<\/p>\n

Curb your inflation: <\/strong>While many of those polled mirrored banking expert Hany Aboul Fotouh\u2019s predictions that the EGP \u201cwill continue to weaken against the USD in the medium term,\u201d they also saw inflation peaking at 40%.<\/p>\n

But it will be a bumpy path: <\/strong>Analysts told us that inflation is likely to rise rapidly after an expected currency devaluation but then begin a steady decline over the next few years. \u201cThe interest rate rise that will accompany [the devaluation], in addition to the base effect, will lead to a gradual decline in inflation to reach 24% on average next year and 9% in 2025, Metwally said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts pointed to rate hikes losing their ability as a policy tool to calm inflation as a reason behind their predictions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":609114,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,104,72,2234,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-609113","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1ac86a3f-2d86-4b03-8f45-19d49e23a5a7","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/1485.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Analysts 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