{"id":608956,"date":"2023-10-29T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/29\/citigroup-turns-bullish-on-egyptian-debt\/"},"modified":"2023-10-29T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-29T00:00:00","slug":"citigroup-turns-bullish-on-egyptian-debt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/29\/citigroup-turns-bullish-on-egyptian-debt\/","title":{"rendered":"Citigroup turns bullish on Egyptian debt"},"content":{"rendered":"

Citigroup likes Egyptian debt: <\/strong>Bulge bracket stalwart Citigroup thinks our geopolitical importance (we\u2019re \u2018too big to fail\u2019) and an accelerating privatization program mean it is worth taking a punt on our USD-denominated debt, Bloomberg<\/a> writes, picking up on a Citi note by strategists Nikola Apostolov and Luis Costa. <\/p>\n

Too important to fail: <\/strong>\u201cWhile geopolitical risks are likely to weigh on the region in the coming months, in our view Egypt\u2019s geostrategic position may reinforce its bargaining power with its multilateral and Gulf Cooperation Council creditors and catalyze increased new financing,\u201d Apostolov and Costa write.<\/p>\n

\u201cEgypt sovereign risk sentiment might be at an inflection point,\u201d<\/strong> they note, despite recent sovereign credit downgrades<\/a> and delays in the IMF\u2019s review of our USD 3 bn assistance program. Citi is going overweight on Egypt, Bloomberg\u2019s Mirette Magdy reports, \u201cwhile reducing its exposure\u201d to underperforming Jordanian debt. The bank is recommending Egyptian bonds maturing in 2031 and 2050. <\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s USD debt has been the region\u2019s best performer since the outbreak of violence <\/strong>in Palestine and Israel on 7 October<\/strong>, according to the business information service. <\/p>\n

But, there\u2019s a caveat: <\/strong>Regional escalation of the war on Gaza or the failure of talks to secure additional funding wouldn\u2019t be positive for our debt, Citigroup warned.<\/p>\n

LAZARD ISN\u2019T AS BULLISH-<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wealth managers at Lazard are investing an \u201cunusually low\u201d portion of their assets in <\/strong>high-yield bonds from emerging markets<\/strong>, describing debt in Egypt, Argentina, Kenya, and Nigeria as \u201cof particular concern,\u201d it said in a statement<\/a> this month. The firm noted the surge in US bond yields<\/a> and geopolitical uncertainty amid Israel\u2019s war on Gaza as factors placing pressure on the EM asset class. <\/p>\n

Sentiment is a pretty important gauge to watch right now: <\/strong>The government is reportedly seeking<\/a> to increase its USD 3 bn loan program with the IMF to more than USD 5 bn, and there are growing expectations that the UAE and Saudi Arabia will at least roll over some USD 5 bn worth of deposits they have at the central bank. <\/p>\n

Next to play the \u201cEgypt sentiment\u201d game: Fitch.<\/strong> The ratings agency is set to weigh in on 3 November, following S&P Global<\/a> (which downgraded us last week), citing FX shortages and rising uncertainties about the sustainability of our debt sustainability, and Moody\u2019s<\/a> .<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The bulge bracket bank thinks our geopolitical importance and an accelerating privatization program mean it\u2019s time to take a punt on our USD-denominated debt<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":608957,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[82,102,294,104,72,119,272,8679],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-608956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-bonds","tag-capital-markets","tag-citigroup","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-financial-markets","tag-imf","tag-lazard","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"af942136-2361-4cfe-983d-dc78c025450c","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/1353.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Citigroup turns bullish on Egyptian debt on our newfound geopolitical importance in finance negotiations","related_issue":[608942],"teaser":"The bulge bracket bank thinks our geopolitical importance and an accelerating privatization program mean it\u2019s time to take a punt on our USD-denominated debt","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/10\/.25f9e33f-0dc3-41a8-921b-dd3bdd9c661c.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nCitigroup turns bullish on Egyptian debt - 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