{"id":608670,"date":"2023-10-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/24\/shoukry-to-call-for-gaza-ceasefire-at-un-security-council-eu-officials-race-to-agree-migration-deal-with-egypt\/"},"modified":"2023-10-24T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-24T00:00:00","slug":"shoukry-to-call-for-gaza-ceasefire-at-un-security-council-eu-officials-race-to-agree-migration-deal-with-egypt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/24\/shoukry-to-call-for-gaza-ceasefire-at-un-security-council-eu-officials-race-to-agree-migration-deal-with-egypt\/","title":{"rendered":"Shoukry to call for Gaza ceasefire at UN Security Council + EU officials race to agree migration deal with Egypt"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, wonderful people. <\/strong>The US has categorically ruled out a ceasefire in Gaza, where fuel is on track to run out tomorrow and about two-thirds of all residents have now been forced out of their homes. <\/p>\n

As you might expect, the war continues to be the big story at home and abroad<\/strong>, as Gaza braces itself for the eighteenth day of Israel\u2019s brutal air campaign.<\/p>\n

US and Israeli media are setting up expectations of a larger hostage release by Hamas<\/strong>that could impact how Tel Aviv prosecutes its war against Gaza, as we report in this morning\u2019s War Watch, below. <\/p>\n

ECONOMIC IMPACT ON EGYPT-<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- <\/strong>Fearing a wave of refugees, the EU is said to be scrambling to \u201caccelerate\u201d a <\/strong>package of aid for Egypt:<\/strong> The EU is trying to get a financial agreement with Egypt over the line as fast as possible as it wakes up to the potential for a new refugee crisis on its doorstep. The Financial Times<\/a> reports that European officials held talks in Cairo over the weekend over a package that would fund job creation and the green transition, rather than pay the country to keep migrants within its borders. \u201cThe issue here is stabilizing the country,\u201d said one of the people involved in the talks. \u201c[Egypt] is doing a good job with migration but is facing economic headwinds. This is about shoring up.\u201d<\/p>\n

#2- <\/strong>War isn\u2019t great for tourism:<\/strong> The conflict in Gaza could take the wind out of Egypt\u2019s recent tourism boom as travelers shun the region amid the possibility of a wider conflict, the head of Virgin Atlantic Airways told Bloomberg<\/a> yesterday <\/p>\n

<\/a> #3- EGP WATCH- The EGP is now trading at <\/strong>44-45 per USD in the parallel market<\/strong>, almost 50% above the official rate, Al Borsa<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

Blame the war in Gaza and <\/strong>recent sovereign downgrades<\/strong> from Moody\u2019s<\/a> and S&P<\/a>, the newspaper speculates. The official USD-EGP exchange rate has remained pegged at 30.96 since March.<\/p>\n

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HAPPENING TODAY-<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a> #1- <\/strong>Shoukry to call for ceasefire at UN Security Council:<\/strong> Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is in New York<\/a> today to attend an emergency ministerial session of the UN Security Council called by Brazil to continue discussions aimed at de-escalating the conflict. Shoukry will reiterate the need for an immediate ceasefire and acceleration of aid deliveries to the besieged territory.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect a ceasefire while the US is still dead against it:<\/strong> White House spokesperson John Kirby yesterday reiterated Washington\u2019s opposition to a ceasefire in an interview<\/a> last night. A proposal for a temporary humanitarian ceasefire was shot down by the US<\/a> at the Security Council last week because it didn\u2019t mention Israel\u2019s right to self defense (yes, really).<\/p>\n

Washington isn\u2019t alone: Its European allies have stopped well short of calling for a <\/strong>ceasefire<\/strong>, and Canada\u2019s foreign minister yesterday called for both Israel and Hamas<\/a> to \u201cact with greater restraint to avoid large-scale deaths and alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.\u201d<\/p>\n

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<\/a> #2- Day one of \u201cDavos in the Desert\u201d:<\/strong> Business leaders, investors, and policymakers the world over have been heading over to Riyadh for the Future Investment<\/a>Initiative<\/a> (FII) \u2014 commonly referred to as \u201cDavos in the Desert\u201d \u2014 set to kick off this morning. The conference\u2019s busy schedule<\/a> is set to wrap on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Expect to hear a lot more about China this conference: <\/strong>Days before the conference in Saudi Arabia had even kicked off, Reuters<\/a> was already reporting the number of Chinese attendees was doubling this year as Saudi and Chinese relations continued to warm. This is the first FII after Saudi Arabia was formally invited<\/a> to join Brics in August.<\/p>\n

Who to look out for: <\/strong>IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva\u2019s upcoming and World Bank President Ajay Banga are set to make speeches. Big names on Wall Street like JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon are also reportedly set to take to the stage.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> #3- GERD talks are back:<\/strong> A third round of talks between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) started in Cairo yesterday, the Irrigation Ministry said<\/a>. <\/p>\n

This is the third round of talks since August: <\/strong>The three sides have met twice over the past two months in a bid to reach an agreement. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pledged in July<\/a> to finalize an agreement within four months.<\/p>\n

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PSA- <\/strong>Get ready to turn your clocks back an hour at the end of the week:<\/strong> Daylight savings time will end in Egypt on Thursday 26 October.<\/p>\n

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MARKET WATCH-<\/strong><\/p>\n

#1- Th<\/strong>e <\/strong>sell-off in the US bond market<\/a><\/strong> shows no signs of slowing: <\/strong>Yields on US government debt hit a fresh 16-year high yesterday as investors continued to ditch their bonds after Fed chair Jerome Powell hinted<\/a> that further rate hikes could be on the table, the Financial Times<\/a> wrote. The rate on the 10-year note surpassed 5% for the first time since 2007 before dipping later in the session.<\/p>\n

What happens in the US matters in Egypt:<\/strong> Higher yields on US treasuries put pressure on emerging-market assets such as Egyptian debt, which become less attractive to foreign investors. Egypt in particular isn\u2019t being helped by record-breaking inflation, which has pushed its real interest rate deep into the red. Rising yields have also helped send the USD to its highest level in 10 months, increasing Egypt\u2019s import bill and raising debt repayments.<\/p>\n

#2- Oil prices dip as Middle East conflict fears ease:<\/strong> Oil prices fell more than 2% yesterday as the weekend\u2019s developments in Gaza eased concerns about a broader conflict. Brent futures slipped 2.5% to end the session at USD 89.83 as traders reacted to the breakthrough in negotiations to deliver aid to Gaza, and Israel\u2019s hesitation over its anticipated ground offensive.<\/p>\n

COP28 WATCH-<\/strong><\/p>\n

A l<\/strong>oss and damage fund was a landmark achievement for COP27, but it\u2019s a sticking <\/strong>point for COP28: <\/strong>Countries involved in ironing out the finer details of the loss and damage fund left a meeting on Saturday without coming to terms on the fund\u2019s future overseer or which countries would pay in \/ which would receive payouts, reports Reuters<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The key sticking points<\/strong>, according to the newswire:<\/p>\n