{"id":608180,"date":"2023-10-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/16\/optimism-grows-that-the-us-may-avoid-a-recession\/"},"modified":"2023-10-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-16T00:00:00","slug":"optimism-grows-that-the-us-may-avoid-a-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/16\/optimism-grows-that-the-us-may-avoid-a-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Optimism grows that the US may avoid a recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

US could sidestep a recession, say economists: <\/strong>With the Fed potentially halting its cycle of interest rate hikes, inflation easing, and growth surpassing expectations, economists have now put the chance of a US recession within the next year at 48%, down from a 54% average in July, the Wall Street Journal<\/a> reports, citing data from its quarterly survey of business and academic economists. The results are the first time that the country\u2019s recession probability has fallen below 50% since the middle of 2022. <\/p>\n

Driving optimism: <\/strong>Strong jobs data and economic growth, falling inflation, and optimism that interest rates have reached their peak.<\/p>\n

A case for a soft landing: <\/strong>The predictions relay confidence that the Fed will be able to create a \u2018soft-landing\u2019, a situation in which inflation falls without causing a recession, writes the WSJ. \u201cThe case for a soft landing has undeniably strengthened,\u201d Deutsche Bank economists said. <\/p>\n

But risks still remain: <\/strong>Deutsche Bank economics warned that despite the optimism,\u201cheadwinds such as depleted savings, tightening credit conditions, slowing income growth and return of student debt payments will weigh more appreciably over the next year.\u201d Recent developments like the war in Gaza and the potential for regional escalation could also have unforeseen effects for the US economy in coming months. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/a> <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20,325<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.6% (YTD: +39.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 30.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 30.96<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD at CIB<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 30.85<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 30.95<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates CBE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,543<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,483<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.1% (YTD: -7.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

D<\/strong>F<\/strong>M<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3,965<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.3% (YTD: +18.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,328<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +12.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,600<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +2.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,136<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.5% (YTD: +9.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 90.89<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+5.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.24<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 1,941.50<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 27,262<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5% (YTD: +64.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL-<\/strong><\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 1.6% at yesterday\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 2.6 bn (19.4% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 39.2% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Mopco (+16.7%), Orascom Construction (+14.0%) and Oriental Weavers (+6.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Madinet Masr (-3.3%), EFG Holding (-2.8%) and Alexandria Containers and Goods (-2.7%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economists now put the likelihood of a recession at 48%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":608181,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[72,8780,119,2403,122,117],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-608180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-global-economy","tag-planet-finance","tag-us","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0fd9a1a9-0202-4181-8729-2d3476c49d5b","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/777.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Optimism grows that the US may avoid a recession","related_issue":[608159],"teaser":"Economists now put the likelihood of a recession at 48%","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/10\/.e705cc7f-3567-4117-b387-96e302afd6bb.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nOptimism grows that the US may avoid a recession - 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The financial press is continuing to ride a wave of optimism out of the tail-end of the World Economic Forum in Davos. As we reported in yesterday\u2019s EnterprisePM, market-watchers and economists no longer seem so sure there will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/393.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550449,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/27\/coming-recession-could-be-short-and-shallow-say-economists\/","url_meta":{"origin":608180,"position":1},"title":"Coming recession could be short and shallow, say economists","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The global economy could be heading into a recession \u2014 but it might not be so bad: Economists polled by Reuters see the global economy growing at just a 2.3% clip next year as a recession becomes more certain amid spiraling inflation and volatility in global markets. Only six out\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578844,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/16\/eu-sanctions-to-redraw-global-diesel-markets-us-still-headed-for-recession-despite-slower-inflation-wsj-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":608180,"position":2},"title":"EU sanctions to redraw global diesel markets + US still headed for recession despite slower inflation -WSJ poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"New European sanctions are about to hit Russian oil products \u2014 but expect major re-routing rather than major re-pricing on diesel: After banning shipments on seaborne Russian crude in December, the EU a will ratchet up the pressure on Moscow from 5 February with a ban on refined Russian fuel\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/254.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":550182,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/17\/eu-wants-a-price-cap-on-its-gas-markets-more-us-economists-expect-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":608180,"position":3},"title":"EU wants a price cap on its gas markets + More US economists expect recession","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The EU wants to cap prices in its benchmark gas market: The European Commission will propose an emergency price cap on transactions on the benchmark Dutch TTF, in the region\u2019s latest bid to tame spiraling energy prices, according to an official document seen by Bloomberg and the Financial Times. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547536,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/26\/the-imf-says-the-us-wll-narrowly-avoid-recession-us-stocks-had-a-good-week-for-once\/","url_meta":{"origin":608180,"position":4},"title":"The IMF says the US wll \u201cnarrowly avoid\u201d recession + US stocks had a good week for once","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Not predicting a recession in the US this year or next: The IMF, which said in a statement Friday that it expects the US to \u201cnarrowly avoid\u201d going into recession before 2023, as curbs to inflation help protect real income and sustain growth over the medium term. Economists and analysts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547449,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/22\/recession-is-inevitable-if-the-economy-continues-in-this-direction-maait\/","url_meta":{"origin":608180,"position":5},"title":"Recession is \u201cinevitable\u201d if the economy continues in this direction -Maait","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"We\u2018re not in a recession \u2014 but the risk is very much there, says Maait: \u201cWe are not yet in a recession\u201d despite the World Bank, IMF, and others have reduced their expectations for economic growth, Finance Minister Maait said in an interview with Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 10:02) on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/270.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/608180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=608180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/608180\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/608159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/608181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=608180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=608180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=608180"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=608180"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=608180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}