{"id":607888,"date":"2023-10-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/11\/imf-cuts-our-23-24-growth-outlook-amid-fx-crunch-mena-and-saudi-outlooks-also-trimmed\/"},"modified":"2023-10-11T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-11T00:00:00","slug":"imf-cuts-our-23-24-growth-outlook-amid-fx-crunch-mena-and-saudi-outlooks-also-trimmed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/11\/imf-cuts-our-23-24-growth-outlook-amid-fx-crunch-mena-and-saudi-outlooks-also-trimmed\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF cuts our 23-24 growth outlook amid FX crunch, MENA and Saudi outlooks also trimmed"},"content":{"rendered":"

The economy will slow more than expected this year:<\/strong> The IMF has downgraded its FY 2023-24 growth outlook for Egypt to 3.6% from its previous 4.1% forecast<\/a> in July in its W<\/a>orld Economic Outlook (p<\/a>df)<\/a> released yesterday. This is the second time it has lowered its outlook this year, cutting it to 4.1% from 5.0% in July, citing the shortage of foreign currency and dwindling investor confidence.<\/p>\n

Lower growth seems to be the consensus: <\/strong>Pundits left and right have been lowering their expectations of how our economy will grow in FY 2023-24 and 2024, citing (let\u2019s all sing it together) the FX crunch, record inflation, and high interest rates. Among them: the World Bank<\/a> and Morgan Stanley<\/a> presented more pessimistic forecasts for FY 2023-24, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development<\/a> downgraded its 2024 outlook.<\/p>\n

Growth to slow in FY 2022-23, but not as much as we thought:<\/strong> The Fund revised upwards its estimate for FY 2022-23 to 4.2% from 3.7% previously. The economy grew at a 6.7% clip the year before.<\/p>\n

What we know:<\/strong> The government has released official growth figures for the first three quarters of FY 2022-23, during which growth slowed to 4.0% from 7.8% in the same period a year earlier.The government has not yet released official figures for the final quarter.<\/p>\n

The inflation outlook: <\/strong>Consumer price growth is expected to average 32.2% this year, up from 23.5% in FY 2022-23, slightly ahead of its forecast in July.The annual urban rate of inflation rose to 38% y-o-y last month, according to state statistics agency Capmas\u2019s most recent report (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n

THE REGIONAL OUTLOOK-<\/strong><\/p>\n

MENA outlook slashed again:<\/strong> The IMF lowered its 2023 MENA growth outlook by 0.5percentage points, and now expects regional growth to slow to 2.0% from 5.6% in 2022. Growth estimates for 2024 were revised upwards to 3.4% from 3.2% in July. <\/p>\n

As was Sau<\/strong>di\u2019s growth forecast: <\/strong>The IMF now sees Saudi Arabia\u2019s GDP to fall to 0.8% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024 (down from from 8.7% in 2022), citing \u201cannounced production cuts, including unilateral cuts and those in line with an agreement through OPEC+.\u201d <\/p>\n

THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK-<\/strong><\/p>\n

I<\/strong>MF holds glo<\/strong>bal growth outlook<\/strong>:<\/strong> The IMF left its 2023 forecast for global growth unchanged at 3.0%, below 2022\u2019s 3.5% rate. The lender trimmed its outlook for next year by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%. \u201cPart of the slowdown is the result of the tighter monetary policy necessary to bring inflation down. This is starting to bite, but the transmission is uneven across countries,\u201d IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in the foreword. <\/p>\n

Inflation is cooling off: <\/strong>The Fund is now forecasting global headline inflation to fall to 5.9% this year from 9.2% last year, marking a 0.9 percentage-point drop from July\u2019s forecast. The fund now expects global inflation to continue to slow to 4.8% in 2024, down from the 5.2% projected in July.<\/p>\n

Correction: 11 October 2023<\/p>\n

A previous version of this article incorrectly attributed the Egypt figures to the 2023 and 2024 calendar years, instead of the FY 2022-23 and FY 2023-24 fiscal years.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Saudi and MENA growth outlooks are also cut in the latest update to the World Economic 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"Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/7\/1027.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556144,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/13\/inequality-threatens-pandemic-recovery-imf-says-in-its-latest-global-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":607888,"position":2},"title":"Inequality threatens pandemic recovery, IMF says in its latest global outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The global recovery is bruised, but not broken: The IMF slightly downgraded its projection for global growth in 2021 to 5.9% in its October World Economic Outlook report (pdf) \u2014 down a slim 0.1 percentage points from 6% in its last update in July. The international lender held its growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/142.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":658906,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/01\/19\/imf-world-bank-cut-egypts-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":607888,"position":3},"title":"IMF, World Bank cut Egypt's growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF now sees the economy growing at a 3.6% clip during the current fiscal year","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/1\/1175.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":585192,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/12\/rising-rates-risk-global-growth-imf-warns\/","url_meta":{"origin":607888,"position":4},"title":"Rising rates risk global growth, IMF warns","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cChances of a hard landing have risen sharply,\u201d IMF warns","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/519.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597367,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/24\/the-imfs-emerging-markets-outlook-is-looking-sluggish-amid-expectations-for-subdued-global-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":607888,"position":5},"title":"The IMF\u2019s emerging markets outlook is looking sluggish amid expectations for \u201csubdued\u201d global growth","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF\u2019s emerging markets outlook is looking sluggish amid expectations for \u201csubdued\u201d global growth: The IMF has revised downwards its forecasts for emerging markets\u2019 GDP growth in its July update of the World Economic Outlook, saying it sees EMs growing 4.1% and 4.7% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The figures\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/2565.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=607888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607888\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/607883"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/607889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=607888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=607888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=607888"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=607888"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=607888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}