{"id":607639,"date":"2023-10-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/08\/world-bank-downgrades-egypt-growth-outlook-says-mena-is-on-an-unacceptably-low-growth-path\/"},"modified":"2023-10-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-08T00:00:00","slug":"world-bank-downgrades-egypt-growth-outlook-says-mena-is-on-an-unacceptably-low-growth-path","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/08\/world-bank-downgrades-egypt-growth-outlook-says-mena-is-on-an-unacceptably-low-growth-path\/","title":{"rendered":"World Bank downgrades Egypt growth outlook + says MENA is on an \u201cunacceptably low\u201d growth path"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong> The World Bank sees Egypt\u2019s growth slowing in the state\u2019s 2023-2024 fiscal year. <\/strong>That comes as the region is growing a whole lot slower, it said in its latest <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/328.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">MENA economic update (pdf)<\/a>. Here\u2019s how it all breaks down:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> EGYPT- <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The World Bank has downgraded its <\/strong><strong> Egypt growth forecast <\/strong> as rising borrowing costs and heightened inflation squeeze economic activity. The lender expects economic growth to slow to 3.7% in the current fiscal year from a projected 4.2% in FY 2022-2023, 0.3 percentage points lower than its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f728602f-ed22-4d87-a238-026ee05af493\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">previous forecast<\/a> in June, according to its latest .<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The rationale: <\/strong> A series of <strong> currency devaluations <\/strong> has triggered a run of record inflation, hitting private-sector business activity and consumer demand. Meanwhile, a <strong> rapid rise in borrowing costs <\/strong> is leaving businesses without access to cheap credit, constraining economic activity. The Central Bank of Egypt has more than doubled policy rates since March in an attempt to rein in inflation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> This is the second time the lender has cut its forecast this year: <\/strong> The Bank <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f728602f-ed22-4d87-a238-026ee05af493\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">lowered its FY<\/a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f728602f-ed22-4d87-a238-026ee05af493\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">2023-2024 growth forecast<\/a> from 4.8% to 4% in June.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The Bank isn\u2019t the only one to recently lower its growth expectations: <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong> EBRD: <\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/a0bc5d8a-a535-4a8f-9a9f-567ba6f522b0\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">4.5% growth<\/a> in 2024 (down 0.7 percentage points)<\/li>\n<li><strong> IMF: <\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/db88caa3-3c4b-4a6a-b81c-f91cd46d3e2c\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">4.1% in 2024<\/a>(down 0.9 percentage points)<\/li>\n<li><strong> Morgan Stanley: <\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/a8466130-8880-4a71-b32b-3b1b25dc24dd\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">4.2% in 2023-2024<\/a>(down 0.8 percentage points)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The World Bank sees our budget deficit widening to <\/strong><strong> 7.1% of GDP <\/strong> this fiscal year from an expected 6.0% last year. The Finance Ministry is currently penciling in <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/65f505ce-69f1-45f1-be0e-11118a220d2c\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">a 6.9% deficit<\/a> this year. It sees the <strong> current account balance will remain in deficit <\/strong>at 2.8% of GDP this year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> FROM THE REGION- <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Our neighbors are also in for a sharp slowdown: <\/strong>The World Bank expects regional growth to slump to 1.9% in 2023 from 6% last year, thanks to the ongoing voluntary cuts in oil output, the global high interest rate environment, and a rise in living costs. \u201c<strong> MENA continues to be on an unacceptably low growth path<\/strong>,\u201d said Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank vice president for the MENA region, warning about the impact on youth unemployment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Oil exporters are driving the slowdown: <\/strong>In reversal of a 2022 trend, growth in regional oil exporters is forecasted to decelerate to just 1.5% this year from 6.2% in 2022. The slowdown will be even more pronounced in the GCC, which will record 1% growth in 2023 compared to 7.3% last year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Remember: <\/strong> GCC states saw their economies boom in 2022 on the back of surging oil and gas prices. This year, a combination of lower oil prices and oil supply cuts has caused economic growth to slow significantly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> KSA will be the hardest hit of the bunch: <\/strong> The Bank expects the Saudi economy to contract by 0.9% this year on the back of the deep voluntary oil production cuts, which it recently extended through to the end of the year in a bid to prop up global oil prices. Lower oil revenues will push government finances into the red, with the Bank forecasting a 1.5% \/ GDP budget deficit this year compared to 2022\u2019s 2.6% surplus.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The slump should be short-lived: <\/strong> The Saudi economy is expected to return to growth in 2024, expanding at a 4.1% clip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt growth to slow to 3.7% this fiscal year, MENA as a whole will slow to 1.9% in 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":607640,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,348,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-607639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gdp","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b2f9b1b3-dd65-41f5-a301-4613e12d726e","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/361.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"World Bank downgrades Egypt growth outlook + says MENA is on an \u201cunacceptably low\u201d growth path","related_issue":[607630],"teaser":"Egypt growth to slow to 3.7% this fiscal year, MENA as a whole will slow to 1.9% in 2023","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/10\/.2ca115ec-525a-4f3a-a9f0-62d0c4d14305.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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The forecast marks a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points from its April forecast (pdf), when the bank expected Egypt to grow 5.0% during the current fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/10\/151.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":584956,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/09\/world-bank-downgrades-growth-forecasts-for-egypt-and-the-region-as-inflation-bites\/","url_meta":{"origin":607639,"position":1},"title":"World Bank downgrades growth forecasts for Egypt and the region as inflation bites","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Lender cuts GDP growth forecast from 4.8% to 4.0% in FY 2022-2023","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/329.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572029,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/09\/world-bank-downgrades-egypts-gdp-growth-forecast-this-fiscal-year-to-3-0\/","url_meta":{"origin":607639,"position":2},"title":"World Bank downgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth forecast this fiscal year to 3.0%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"World Bank downgrades Egypt\u2019s GDP growth forecast to 3.0% for the fiscal year ending this month: The World Bank expects Egypt\u2019s economy to end the current fiscal year \u2014 which comes to a close on 30 June \u2014 with 3.0% growth, down from the 5.9% the bank had penciled in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/93.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547085,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/08\/world-bank-revises-fy-2021-22-growth-forecast-up-to-6-1\/","url_meta":{"origin":607639,"position":3},"title":"World Bank revises FY 2021-22 growth forecast up to 6.1%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The World Bank has again revised upwards its projection for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points to 6.1% for FY 2021-2022. The bank in January expected growth to come in at 5.5%, but \u201cstronger-than-expected activity for the first half of the fiscal year\u201d saw it hike its forecast in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/187.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579278,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/01\/imf-trims-egypt-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":607639,"position":4},"title":"IMF trims Egypt growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF has cut its economic growth forecast for Egypt, saying it sees GDP growing 4.0% this year, a 0.4 percentage point trim from its previous forecast in October, according to its updated World Economic Outlook released yesterday (here and here, pdf). That\u2019s in line with forecasts from the Madbouly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/3.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575589,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/20\/egypts-economy-to-achieve-pre-pandemic-growth-in-fy2021-2022-world-bank\/","url_meta":{"origin":607639,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to achieve pre-pandemic growth in FY2021-2022 -World Bank","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy will return to pre-pandemic growth rates in FY2021-2022 -World Bank: The World Bank is the latest addition to a growing chorus of voices expecting Egypt to be the only country in the MENA region to record positive economic growth amid the pandemic. 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