{"id":607635,"date":"2023-10-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/08\/egypt-must-devalue-or-risk-bleeding-reserves-imf-chief\/"},"modified":"2023-10-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-08T00:00:00","slug":"egypt-must-devalue-or-risk-bleeding-reserves-imf-chief","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/08\/egypt-must-devalue-or-risk-bleeding-reserves-imf-chief\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt must devalue or risk \u201cbleeding\u201d reserves -IMF chief"},"content":{"rendered":"

Egypt needs to move forward with another <\/strong> currency devaluation or we will \u201cbleed\u201d reserves<\/strong>, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Bloomberg<\/a> in an interview late last week.<\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong> The IMF has delayed two reviews of our USD 3 bn assistance program after we failed to meet several conditions of the loan, including a commitment to implement a fully flexible exchange rate. Pundits expect the Central Bank of Egypt to allow the currency to float freely to get the Fund\u2019s sign-off and unlock the next two tranches of the loan, though most analysts don\u2019t expect this to happen before the presidential election in December.<\/p>\n

The sooner this happens the better, says Georgieva: <\/strong> \u201cThe sooner we can reach an agreement on the road map for [EGP devaluation] the better \u2026 The issue here is very simple. Egypt would bleed reserves protecting the EGP and neither the country nor overall the environment is such that this is desirable. That\u2019s a problem that has to be solved,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

Should we expect more news in the coming week or two? <\/strong>Egypt and the Fund are \u201cmaking progress\u201d on a review, Georgieva said. \u201cIn the last couple of days there have been some constructive engagements \u2026 There will be more systematic work of our team with Egypt. So stay tuned. Let\u2019s see what will come out in the next weeks.\u201d Officials plan to meet during the IMF \/ World Bank annual meetings<\/strong>, which take place from 9-15 October, Cairo24<\/a> quotes House Planning Committee Chair Fakhri El Fiqi as saying. <\/p>\n

The Fund will hold off on its review of the health of the our <\/strong> economy (otherwise known as an Article IV consultation) until after it has completed the reviews<\/strong>, Bloomberg<\/a> reported Wednesday. \u201cWe are giving priority to engaging with the authorities on steps to complete the review under the Extended Fund Facility to support macroeconomic stabilization,\u201d an IMF spokesperson told the news outlet last week. \u201cOnce the review is completed, we will schedule the Article IV consultation.<\/p>\n

More economic reforms post elections: <\/strong>\u201cThe way markets have understood moving forward the presidential elections from 1Q 2024 to December is that the reforms initially earmarked for 2023 will wait till post elections,\u201d Standard Chartered Bank economist Carla Slim told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 8:25<\/a>). <\/p>\n

Further finance from the IMF? <\/strong>\u201cEgypt could get an additional USD 1 bn from the IMF, while other market players believe that the IMF may revisit Egypt\u2019s loan program, pushing it to USD 5-6 bn from its original USD 3 bn,\u201d Slim said, echoing what economist Hany Geneina told us<\/a> last week.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve been gradually adding to our FX reserve stockpile: <\/strong> FX reserves have increased by more than USD 1.8 bn since mid-2022, after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine precipitated heavy capital outflows and caused its FX stockpile to fall almost USD 8 bn. Reserves inched up USD 42 mn to USD 34.97 bn during September, according to central bank data<\/a> released last week. Some USD 29.9 bn of our FX reserves is made up of short- (USD 14.9 bn) and long-term (USD 15 bn) central bank deposits made by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Libya.<\/p>\n

But maintaining a stable exchange rate is increasing FX stress: <\/strong> The central bank has maintained the USD \/ EGP exchange rate at 30.9 since March, exacerbating the ongoing shortage of FX, Bloomberg says. FX liquidity in the banking system has continued to deteriorate this year, with net foreign liabilities among commercial banks widening to USD 16.5 bn<\/a> in August. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kristalina Georgieva suggests there could be news in the coming weeks on when we can expect a review of progress under our USD 3 bn assistance program<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":607636,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,2234,655,272,1368],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-607635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-imf","tag-kristalina-georgieva","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"34d82cce-f4dd-436a-b2d7-ef783c0903de","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/329.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egypt must devalue or risk \u201cbleeding\u201d reserves -IMF chief","related_issue":[607630],"teaser":"Kristalina Georgieva suggests there could be news in the coming weeks on when we can expect a review of progress under our USD 3 bn assistance program","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/10\/.b567ba89-033a-41bc-8cec-a0c95576aa3b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt must devalue or risk \u201cbleeding\u201d reserves -IMF chief - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/08\/egypt-must-devalue-or-risk-bleeding-reserves-imf-chief\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt must devalue or risk \u201cbleeding\u201d reserves -IMF chief\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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