{"id":607344,"date":"2023-10-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/02\/nearly-a-fifth-of-our-external-debt-is-due-next-year\/"},"modified":"2023-10-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-02T00:00:00","slug":"nearly-a-fifth-of-our-external-debt-is-due-next-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/02\/nearly-a-fifth-of-our-external-debt-is-due-next-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Nearly a fifth of our external debt is due next year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong> 2024 is going to be an expensive year: <\/strong> New central bank projections out last week estimate that we\u2019re going to have to repay almost a fifth of our total external debt obligations in 2024 alone. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> How do we manage it all? <\/strong> Economist Hany Geneina floats the possibility of the IMF more than doubling our USD 3 bn assistance program should we deliver on our commitments, providing a vital line of FX that would enable us to narrow our significant external financing gap.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Here\u2019s how it could all play out: <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> A big year of repayments ahead: <\/strong> Egypt will likely have to spend USD 29.2 bn on debt repayments in 2024, according to updated <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/47.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">central bank estimates (pdf)<\/a> published last week.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The need-to-knows: <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong> It\u2019s significantly more than we\u2019re paying this year: <\/strong> This is USD 10 bn more than our expected debt servicing bill for this year, which the central bank now puts at USD 19.3 bn, and is almost a fifth of our total external debt.<\/li>\n<li><strong> It\u2019s more than USD 1 bn more than we had previously expected: <\/strong> The central bank in Juneestimated that we will repay around USD 28 bn over the 12-month period.<\/li>\n<li><strong> It\u2019s mostly due to higher interest rates: <\/strong> The central bank now projects Egypt will have to repay USD 6.3 bn in interest next year, USD 841 mn more than its previous estimate in June.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Remember: <\/strong> Egypt\u2019s external debt has quadrupled over the past decade, reaching a record high of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/450c2cb7-4819-4598-a61f-cb17259fbe7b\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">USD<\/a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/450c2cb7-4819-4598-a61f-cb17259fbe7b\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">165.4<\/a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/450c2cb7-4819-4598-a61f-cb17259fbe7b\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">bn<\/a> at the end of March due to increased borrowing from multilateral lenders and international debt markets. This equates to around 38.5% of GDP, below the IMF\u2019s 50% threshold for manageable debt levels, according to the report. More than two-thirds of the country\u2019s external debt is denominated in USD.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> We\u2019ll be paying significantly more over the longer term, too: <\/strong> Egypt\u2019s debt repayments between 2024 and 2027 now stand at USD 83.7 bn, according to the central bank. That\u2019s USD 6.4 bn more than it had estimated in June.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Background: <\/strong> Our external position has come under pressure in recent months on the back of higher interest rates, turmoil in the financial markets, and a shortage of foreign currency. The EGP has lost more than half of its value against the USD since March 2022 in a series of devaluations aimed at easing FX liquidity stress.<\/p>\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The financing gap: <\/strong>Goldman Sachs estimates that Egypt is facing a financing gap of more than USD 11 bn over the next five years, which it is trying to fill via a mixture of state asset sales, new concessional financing from multilateral lenders, higher tourism and export revenues, and most recently via <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/33abb6a6-8746-4e6a-b1d3-45d924437ae7\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">currency swap agreements<\/a>. Authorities are also in negotiations with the IMF regarding the completion of the first and second reviews of the USD 3 bn assistance program, which should release almost USD 700 mn.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> How we could potentially fund it: <\/strong> \u201cIt\u2019s expected that we receive debt inflows totalling USD 6-7 bn, proceeds from the potential panda and samurai bond sales worth a combined USD 1 bn, the second and third tranches of the IMF loan along with USD 1.2 bn under the IMF\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/About\/Factsheets\/Sheets\/2023\/Resilience-Sustainability-Facility-RSF\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Resilience and Sustainability Facility<\/a>, as well as more than USD 5 bn from state asset sales,\u201d economic analyst Hany Geneina told Enterprise yesterday.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The IMF could bump up our loan if we deliver:<\/strong>&nbsp;\u201cIt\u2019s expected that the IMF loan gets upsized to USD 6-8 bn, up from USD 3 bn, following the much expected front-loaded reforms early next year \u2014 including lifting energy subsidies, an aggressive rate hike that could exceed 300 bps, and a decision to float the EGP,\u201d Geneina told us. The potential bump would also be in line with the fact that we have a debt repayment worth USD 5.1 bn to the IMF next year, surpassing the amount of the current USD 3 bn arrangement, Geneina added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt to pay USD 29.2 bn in debt dues during 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faces more than USD 29 bn in debt repayments in 2024, CBE data suggest","related_issue":[607335],"teaser":"Egypt to pay USD 29.2 bn in debt dues during 2024","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/10\/.36e28595-4ede-4d18-b1ef-e595466045a0.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nearly a fifth of our external debt is due next year - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/02\/nearly-a-fifth-of-our-external-debt-is-due-next-year\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nearly a fifth of our external debt is due next year\" 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&quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/111.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":607637,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/10\/08\/moodys-downgrades-egypts-sovereign-credit-rating-on-rising-debt-fears\/","url_meta":{"origin":607344,"position":4},"title":"Moody\u2019s downgrades Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating on rising debt fears","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 October 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The rating agency downgraded the rating to Caa1 with a stable outlook, four notches above default","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/10\/362.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":621201,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/01\/egypt-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-imf-on-fifth-tranche-of-usd-12-bn-facility\/","url_meta":{"origin":607344,"position":5},"title":"Egypt reaches staff-level agreement with IMF on fifth tranche of USD 12 bn facility","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"** #4 Egypt reaches staff-level agreement with IMF on fifth loan tranche: Egypt reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF yesterday on the fifth USD 2 bn tranche of its USD 12 bn extended fund facility after a delegation led by Egypt Mission Chief Subir Lall completed its fourth review\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed 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