{"id":606332,"date":"2023-09-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/09\/14\/fitch-expects-net-foreign-liabilities-in-egyptian-banks-to-rise-amid-fx-crunch\/"},"modified":"2023-09-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-14T00:00:00","slug":"fitch-expects-net-foreign-liabilities-in-egyptian-banks-to-rise-amid-fx-crunch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/09\/14\/fitch-expects-net-foreign-liabilities-in-egyptian-banks-to-rise-amid-fx-crunch\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch expects net foreign liabilities in Egyptian banks to rise amid FX crunch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong> Egypt\u2019s net foreign asset position will likely get worse before it gets better: <\/strong>That\u2019s according to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fitchratings.com\/research\/banks\/egyptian-banks-net-foreign-liabilities-may-increase-further-07-09-2023\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">a report from Fitch<\/a>, which says that a combination of foreign outflows, import backlogs and a managed exchange rate will likely intensify FX liquidity pressures in the banking sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> ICYMI- Record liabilities: <\/strong> Net foreign assets in the banking sector have deteriorated heavily over the past two years, swinging from a EGP 26.4 bn surplus in June 2021 to a record <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/ce28e8d0-c86c-456e-a6ce-f14c5833d1b1\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">EGP 529 bn deficit<\/a>(USD 17.1 bn) in June this year due to the ongoing FX crunch.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The pressure points: <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> #1- The exchange rate: <\/strong> \u201cProlonged management of the exchange-rate regime could put further pressure on the banking sector\u2019s NFL position,\u201d the rating agency writes. Under its USD 3 bn IMF program, the government committed to moving to a fully-flexible exchange rate but since March has maintained a stable USD exchange rate while it tries to build up FX reserves ahead of a possible float. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Movement coming? <\/strong> The IMF was scheduled to conduct a review of the program this month, a review that is thought to be contingent on authorities moving towards a flexible exchange rate. The current consensus is that there will be another devaluation of the currency before the year is out, the scale and timing of which is uncertain.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> #2- A growing import backlog: <\/strong> The sector\u2019s NFL position will widen if banks are used to clear the estimated USD 5.5 bn import backlog, as they were <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d041e1e1-1f9c-4271-8391-d6c3b10e965f\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">at the end of December<\/a>, Fitch writes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> The upside risk? <\/strong> \u201cExchange-rate pressure could moderate if the authorities succeed in selling assets to external investors, boosting capital and foreign-currency inflows into Egypt,\u201d according to the rating agency. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Privatization so far: <\/strong> Several asset sales announced in July have netted the government <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/1f59098e-47ac-42cc-964c-b84096549959\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">USD 1.65 bn in FX proceeds<\/a>, while an agreement this month to sell 30% of Eastern Company will bring in another <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/2faf2678-e1de-4680-a046-b73c3abab8df\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">USD 625 mn<\/a>. Its revised target aims to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/e8a0da43-f922-4a49-b3a9-839f397f8ce4\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">raise USD 5 bn<\/a> via its asset sale program by the end of 2Q 2024.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> #3- Expect more outflows from local debt: <\/strong> Fitch said it is \u201chighly likely\u201d that foreign investors will continue to pull money from the local debt market due to negative real interest rates, low appetite for emerging-market assets, and tight global financial conditions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong> Remember: <\/strong> Investors have pulled more than USD 20 bn from the local debt market since last year. Foreign t-bill holdings have declined from USD 21.3 bn at the end of January 2022 to about USD 13 bn at the end of April.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Net foreign liabilities in the banking sector hit a record high in June<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":606333,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[204,104,72,2234,587],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-606332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-banking","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-state-privatization-program","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5e1427bc-32c8-4036-8213-ad503baaa07d","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/9\/26.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fitch expects net foreign liabilities in Egyptian banks to rise amid FX crunch","related_issue":[606316],"teaser":"Net foreign liabilities in the banking sector hit a record high in June","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/9\/.a485fca5-63a9-4c39-9be9-731a2d3942ed.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fitch expects net foreign liabilities in Egyptian banks to rise amid FX crunch - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/09\/14\/fitch-expects-net-foreign-liabilities-in-egyptian-banks-to-rise-amid-fx-crunch\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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&quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/67.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568057,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/16\/fx-liquidity-at-banks-is-recovering-from-covid\/","url_meta":{"origin":606332,"position":3},"title":"FX liquidity at banks is recovering from covid","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The banking sector\u2019s FX liquidity has recovered from pandemic-induced lows, thanks to the return of foreign inflows to capital markets, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday. Net foreign assets at banks increased to USD 2.9 bn in October, continuing to rebound after having turned positive in September. Excluding the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/288.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":611123,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/12\/03\/net-foreign-liabilities-hit-record-high-in-october-as-fx-pressure-mounts\/","url_meta":{"origin":606332,"position":4},"title":"Net foreign liabilities hit record high in October as FX pressure mounts","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 December 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Net foreign assets widened to negative USD 27.2 bn from USD 26.8 bn","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/9\/1388.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558308,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/04\/credit-risk-is-falling-in-the-banking-sector\/","url_meta":{"origin":606332,"position":5},"title":"Credit risk is falling in the banking sector","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"An improving operating environment since 3Q2020 has eased pressure on Egyptian banks\u2019 credit profiles and ratings, according to a Fitch Ratings report yesterday. Fitch had in July revised its outlook for the banking sector from negative to stable, \u201creflecting the stable outlook on the operating environment,\u201d according to the report.What\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/83.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/606332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=606332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/606332\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/606316"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/606333"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=606332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=606332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=606332"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=606332"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=606332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}