{"id":606164,"date":"2023-09-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-12T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/09\/12\/fully-flexible-exchange-rate-needed-to-counter-pressure-on-egp-iif\/"},"modified":"2023-09-12T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-12T00:00:00","slug":"fully-flexible-exchange-rate-needed-to-counter-pressure-on-egp-iif","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/09\/12\/fully-flexible-exchange-rate-needed-to-counter-pressure-on-egp-iif\/","title":{"rendered":"Fully flexible exchange rate needed to counter pressure on EGP -IIF"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pressure on EGP exchange rate set to rise, says IIF: <\/strong>The local currency is currently overvalued by some 10% in comparison with its \u201creal effective exchange rate\u201d \u2014 its relative strength compared to a basket of 13 of our major trading partners \u2014 the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a note on Wednesday. Analysts at the institute blamed record inflation<\/a> here at home, diminishing inflation amongst trading partners, and the fixed exchange rate for the overvaluation, which they say could widen to 20% by the end of 2024. <\/p>\n

Remember: <\/strong>The EGP-USD exchange rate has remained pegged at EGP 30.96 since March after a series of devaluations that saw the local currency lose almost half of its value against the greenback. The parallel market rate, meanwhile, currently stands around 30% above the official rate, according to the IIF. <\/p>\n

The solution? A full float of the EGP, says the IIF: <\/strong>The data \u201cstrengthen[s] the argument in favor of a floating exchange rate, a policy shift that would, if accompanied by tighter policies, help bring Egypt one step closer towards macroeconomic stability,\u201d the analysts wrote. The IIF had previously called on policymakers to adopt a fully flexible exchange rate<\/a> and eliminate the parallel market to help rebuild depleted FX reserves. <\/p>\n

The IMF concurs: <\/strong>Many market-watchers are expecting a further devaluation of the EGP in tandem with the IMF\u2019s anticipated review<\/a> of our USD 3 bn loan, under which the government agreed to shift to a fully flexible exchange rate. <\/p>\n

Devaluations help \u2014 but they don\u2019t go far enough: <\/strong> One-off devaluations of the exchange rate starting in 2016 have helped alleviate pressure on the EGP in the short term, bringing the official rate in line with the real rate, the IIF says. However, \u201cbottlenecks in the economy, poor monetary policy transmission, subsidized lending, and expansionary fiscal policies\u201d soon reintroduce pressure that drives up the real rate, leading to the need for another devaluation and \u201cstarting the cycle all over,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n

A float isn\u2019t a silver bullet \u2014 but it goes \u201ca long way\u201d: <\/strong>Even in the absence of other policy reforms, a move to a full float \u201cwould allow the real exchange rate to fall closer to its fair value level, benefitting the export sector, reducing the current deficit, helping bring in capital, and taking Egypt one step closer towards macroeconomic stability,\u201d the analysts wrote. <\/p>\n

What\u2019s the IIF, again? <\/strong>It styles itself as the global industry association for the finance industry and counts commercial and investment banks, asset managers, sovereign wealth funds, hedgies and central banks (among others) as members.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The institute says devaluation works in the short term but isn\u2019t sustainable<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":606165,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,1666,2234,3075],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-606164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-exchange-rate","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-institute-of-international-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a0a55cde-5c8f-4eee-b5ec-ded4aedfab31","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/9\/798.jpeg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Fully flexible exchange rate needed to counter pressure on EGP -IIF","related_issue":[606159],"teaser":"The institute says devaluation works in the short term but isn\u2019t sustainable","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/9\/.c426f701-50b0-4284-9de4-c2280d754666.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nFully flexible exchange rate needed to counter pressure on EGP -IIF - 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Earlier this week, the Finance Ministry reversed a decision to set the customs exchange rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/776.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594091,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/20\/central-bank-of-egypts-amer-promotes-reform-journey-in-iif-speech\/","url_meta":{"origin":606164,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Amer promotes reform journey in IIF speech","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s banking sector has a lot of upside potential \u2014 and the way forward is to continue enacting structural reforms,Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer said during a keynote speech at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) annual meeting in Washington (watch, runtime: 23:35). Amer noted that the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/345.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":582464,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/06\/economic-overhaul-needed-to-make-imf-program-a-success-says-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":606164,"position":3},"title":"Economic \u201coverhaul\u201d needed to make IMF program a success, says IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt needs to \u201coverhaul\u201d its business environment for the latest IMF program to succeed: That\u2019s the conclusion of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which published a report last month following a visit to Cairo to talk with policymakers and representatives of financial institutions, including the IMF.The good: \u201cEgypt\u2019s challenges\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/3\/Cairo-traffic-1600.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578990,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/22\/higher-yields-a-weaker-egp-have-foreign-investors-looking-at-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":606164,"position":4},"title":"Higher yields + a weaker EGP have foreign investors looking at Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Higher yields + weaker EGP could bring foreign investors back to the market: Foreign investors who sold out of Egypt last year are once again looking at Egypt\u2019s debt market on the back of a cheaper EGP and record yield, Bloomberg writes. The spread between most EGP treasury bills and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/355.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548705,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/18\/foreign-exchange-policy-will-be-job-1-for-amers-successor-as-calls-for-devaluation-mount\/","url_meta":{"origin":606164,"position":5},"title":"Foreign exchange policy will be job #1 for Amer\u2019s successor as calls for devaluation mount","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Tarek Amer left the central bank at a crucial time for the economy: A perfect storm of heightened commodity prices, rising interest rates, and global volatility (including both an economic slowdown and volatility in global capital markets) is putting the Egyptian economy and the EGP in a tight spot. Speculation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/606164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=606164"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/606164\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/606159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/606165"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=606164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=606164"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=606164"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=606164"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=606164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}