{"id":605176,"date":"2018-12-24T04:34:13","date_gmt":"2018-12-24T04:34:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/24\/egypts-central-bank-to-hold-rates-on-thursday-amid-tamed-inflation\/"},"modified":"2018-12-24T04:34:13","modified_gmt":"2018-12-24T04:34:13","slug":"egypts-central-bank-to-hold-rates-on-thursday-amid-tamed-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/24\/egypts-central-bank-to-hold-rates-on-thursday-amid-tamed-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s central bank to hold rates on Thursday amid tamed inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> EXCLUSIVE- Enterprise poll of economists sees CBE leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday:<\/b> The central bank will likely keep its key interest rates on hold when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday, an Enterprise poll of 10 economists found. Citing a recent drop in inflation<\/a>, the economists and analysts we surveyed said they expect the CBE to leave its overnight deposit and lending rates at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, at the 27 December meeting.<\/p>\n

Weathering the (EM) storm: <\/b>Nobody really expected an interest rate hike heading into Thursday. Instead, the question was whether the CBE might surprise the market with an early rate cut as inflation dropped to 15.7% in November from 17.7% the previous month, falling back into the government\u2019s targeted range of 13% (+\/- 3%). Don\u2019t hold your breath: The CBE will hold off on a cut to help maintain foreign appetite for Egyptian treasuries, the economists said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe CBE will not be encouraged to resume its easing cycle given the ongoing turbulence of the emerging markets<\/b>, which has dealt a hard blow to foreign holdings in Egypt\u2019s treasuries,\u201d said Pharos Holding\u2019 Radwa El Swaify. Foreigners held Egyptian treasuries worth a total of USD 11.7 bn as of the end of October, down from a high of USD 21.5 bn in March \u2014 and off from the USD 13.1 bn recorded at the end of September, CBE data showed.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s not forget that the US Federal Reserve raised its <\/b>benchmark overnight lending rate<\/b><\/a> last week, which could lead to more capital outflows from EM.<\/p>\n

When will easing begin, then? <\/b>Not before the dark cloud over emerging markets passes. \u201cWe generally see no interest rate cuts before 4Q2019, when the emerging markets are forecast to stabilize and Egypt\u2019s inflation cools down after a new wave of price hikes follows the final round of subsidy cuts expected towards the end of the current fiscal year,\u201d said EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha. While both El Swaify and Abu Basha said they expect no rate cuts before 4Q2019, Capital Economics\u2019 Jason Tuvey predicts the easing cycle could begin in early 2019.<\/p>\n

Friendly reminder: <\/b>Let\u2019s not forget thatNovember inflation figures don\u2019t reflect the impact of the government\u2019s recent decision to scrap the discounted customs exchange rate<\/a> for non-essential imports \u2014 a decision that economists told us could send inflation up by as much as 1 percentage point in the next reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EXCLUSIVE- Enterprise poll of economists sees CBE leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday: The central bank will likely keep its key interest rates on hold when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday, an Enterprise poll of 10 economists found. Citing a recent drop in inflation, the economists and analysts we surveyed said they expect […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[611,72,182,349,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-605176","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7c83ee35-3833-499c-805a-dfdd1ecbcc19","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[605171],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s central bank to hold rates on Thursday amid tamed inflation - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/24\/egypts-central-bank-to-hold-rates-on-thursday-amid-tamed-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s central bank to hold rates on Thursday amid tamed inflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"EXCLUSIVE- Enterprise poll of economists sees CBE leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday: The central bank will likely keep its key interest rates on hold when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday, an Enterprise poll of 10 economists found. 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Respondents cited the likely impact on inflation of upcoming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":633426,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/07\/15\/cbe-to-hold-rates-steady-on-thursday-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":605176,"position":3},"title":"CBE to hold rates steady on Thursday -Poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"All 13 of the analysts and economists we surveyed see the MPC holding rates steady","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/7\/1086.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":605176,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. 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