{"id":605117,"date":"2018-12-23T04:40:13","date_gmt":"2018-12-23T04:40:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/23\/what-were-tracking-on-23-december-2018\/"},"modified":"2018-12-23T04:40:13","modified_gmt":"2018-12-23T04:40:13","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-23-december-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/23\/what-were-tracking-on-23-december-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 23 December 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends, and welcome to interest rate week. <\/b>Will the Central Bank of Egypt send us into 2019 with a rate cut? Unlikely, we think, but look for verbiage in its statement hinting at when it might begin trimming rates in the new year. High interest rates are delaying investment for many of our readers, our 2018 reader poll found<\/a>. The central bank\u2019s monetary policy committee meets on Thursday.<\/p>\n

<\/a> Oddly enough, it\u2019s looking to be a bumpy ride on the international front as we wait out the week, because the Santa rally everyone was hoping for just died.<\/b><\/p>\n

(Soundtrack for the upcoming bit: Don\u2019t Shoot Me Santa, by The Killers<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

US shares had their worst week since the global financial crisis <\/b>as the NASDAQ moved into bear territory and the Dow Jones recorded its sharpest week of losses since 2008. \u201cThe selling had conviction,\u201d CNBC<\/a> writes in its rundown on the \u201ccarnage,\u201d suggesting that 12 bn shares changed hands on US exchanges this past Friday \u2014 \u201cthe heaviest volume in at least two years.\u201d The rout now threatens the longest-ever bull market<\/b>, which kicked off in March 2009, the WSJ<\/a> suggests.<\/p>\n

US markets are open tomorrow <\/b>and closed only for the Christmas holiday on 25 December, suggesting that thin volumes and \u201clightly populated\u201d trading desks could lead to big price swings, the Journal adds. The mood remains \u201cfragile,\u201d the FT suggests<\/a>, as traders await clarity on \u201cthe US economy and the Fed\u2019s intentions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Does it feel just a little as if the world is going to hell in a handbasket? <\/b>At least in the US of A? Consider:<\/p>\n

The Donald wants to fire the Fed chair: <\/b>US President Donald Trump has apparently mused out loud that he would very much like to fire US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell<\/a>. That has prompted the treasury secretary to run damage control (and advisors to tell Trump the ouster could spark a market rout). Bloomberg broke the news, which has since been confirmed by Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

He is pulling US troops out of Syria\u2026 <\/b>The Donald has unilaterally decided to pull American troops out of Syria \u2014 earning himself backlash from traditional Republicans<\/a> and public kudos from Russian leader Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n

\u2026Prompting the resignation of the \u201clast adult\u201d in the room: <\/b>The well-regarded US Secretary of Defense<\/a> and The Donald\u2019s envoy on the fight against the Daeshbags<\/a> have both resigned in protest of the Syria pullout \u2014 and allies are freaking out<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The US government is on partial shutdown<\/b> as Republicans and Democrats feud over funding for a border wall. As in \u201csome civil servants are at home on unpaid leave and others are working without pay\u201d shut down. The WSJ<\/a> says government is likely to stay closed well into this week \u2014 the FT<\/a> thinks the shutdown will last at least until Thursday.<\/p>\n

But you should still be able to renew your passport. <\/b>Essential State Department services get multi-year funding, and the passport office says it will be open<\/a> after a planned 24-25 December closure. Vox has a good list of what\u2019s open and closed<\/a> if you\u2019re headed stateside.<\/p>\n

All of the turmoil has some people talking about a recession: <\/b>\u201cThe message people should take home, especially if there\u2019s a government shutdown, is that longer term, the prospects for equities are not good. There are lots of signs now suggesting that we may be looking at a recession,\u201d one analyst told CNBC<\/a> in remarks that have splashed all over our twitter.<\/p>\n

Once again, Mohamed El-Erian is the voice of sanity.<\/b> He appeared on CNBC\u2019s Squawk Box with Andrew Ross Sorkin (the most fortunate guy in financial journalism) & Co to warn we must be careful not to talk ourselves into a recession<\/b><\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n

Are robots going to kill us all in 2019? <\/b>An algorithm-driven fire sale in equities and credit is the biggest risk to global markets in the new year, Deutsche Bank suggests<\/a> in its ranking of 30 risks to markets in 2019. There are some USD 7.4 tn in stocks that would be \u201csubject to forced selling by passive funds during the next downturn,\u201d we have previously noted JPMorgan<\/a> as suggesting.<\/p>\n

Is the Saudi government pumping up the Tadawul?<\/b> That it does so is \u201cconventional wisdom\u201d in these parts. The WSJ<\/a> says it has evidence that Riyadh is \u201cquietly propping up its stock market\u201d to \u201ccounter selloffs that have followed repeated political crises in recent months.\u201d<\/p>\n

RANDOM OBSERVATION of the morning:<\/b> Egypt is not included in Apple\u2019s 2018 transparency report, which tabulates government requests for its clients\u2019 data around the world. See for yourself.<\/a><\/p>\n

RANDOM QUESTION OF THE MORNING: <\/b>Does anyone out there have a line on where to purchase high-quality mugs on which we can print our humble logo? We\u2019re coming up dry. We\u2019d be grateful to hear from anyone with suggestions on editorial@enterprise.press.<\/p>\n

RECOMMENDATION OF THE MORNING for which we receive no financial compensation- Soul Chips & Dips.<\/b> We despise beets, yet found ourselves eating handfuls of them in chip form \u2014 along with sweet potato, potato, carrot and green apple chips at our Christmas \/ New Year\u2019s \/ Farewell Old Office party on Thursday night. We are emphatically not potato chip people (our taste runs to chocolate), but these were simply fantastic. Highly recommended: The green apple with sugar and cinnamon with the salted caramel dip. Soul Chips & Dips is on Instagram here.<\/a><\/p>\n

** Our annual publication holiday is next week.<\/b> We\u2019re taking the two days before New Year\u2019s off and will be back in your inboxes on Wednesday, 2 January.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends, and welcome to interest rate week. Will the Central Bank of Egypt send us into 2019 with a rate cut? Unlikely, we think, but look for verbiage in its statement hinting at when it might begin trimming rates in the new year. 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It just feels that way after an unusually quiet weekend here and abroad. We figure the news cycle has at least a week to go before things quiet down, and there\u2019s always the central bank\u2019s 27 December interest rate decision to which\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/12\/2724.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":622208,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/29\/us-federal-reserve-signals-slowdown-on-2019-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":605117,"position":1},"title":"US Federal Reserve signals slowdown on 2019 rate hikes?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"US Fed signaling slowdown on 2019 rate hikes? Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell gave markets a shot in the arm when he suggested yesterday that US interest rates are \u201cjust below \u2026 neutral\u201d levels. Analysts have interpreted his remarks (transcript here) as a sign that the Fed may\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/Jerome-Powell-web.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":632393,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/02\/11\/what-were-tracking-this-week-58\/","url_meta":{"origin":605117,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is due in Cairo today ahead of a meeting with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry tomorrow, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Talks will focus on bolstering bilateral ties and advancing cooperation on \u201ckey regional issues,\u201d according to the State Department. Tillerson is expected to offer\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":632462,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/02\/12\/what-were-tracking-this-week-59\/","url_meta":{"origin":605117,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s interest rate week, and the folks on the sell side aren\u2019t so certain we\u2019ll see a rate cut: The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday to review rates.Our friends at Pharos think the MPC is most likely to maintain rates, but if a cut does come, it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":631763,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/03\/27\/what-were-tracking-on-27-march-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":605117,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 27 March 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 March 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"An interest rate cut by the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday will not spell the end of the carry trade, EFG Hermes Research believes. The investment bank says foreign purchases of Egyptian treasury bills will see an \u201ceffective\u201d decline in the event the CBE reduces interest rates, EFG\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":631314,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/03\/15\/what-were-tracking-on-15-march-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":605117,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 15 March 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 March 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"As we near the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meeting a week from today, research houses are guiding their clients to expect an interest rate cut. The sentiment comes on the back of annual urban inflation falling to 14.4% in February from 17.1% in January, inching ever closer to the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=605117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/605117\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/605115"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/605118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=605117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=605117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=605117"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=605117"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=605117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}