{"id":604860,"date":"2018-12-16T04:04:04","date_gmt":"2018-12-16T04:04:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/16\/doom-gloom-at-years-end-bloombergs-pessimists-guide-2019-looks-miserable-for-em-contrarian-analysts-say\/"},"modified":"2018-12-16T04:04:04","modified_gmt":"2018-12-16T04:04:04","slug":"doom-gloom-at-years-end-bloombergs-pessimists-guide-2019-looks-miserable-for-em-contrarian-analysts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/16\/doom-gloom-at-years-end-bloombergs-pessimists-guide-2019-looks-miserable-for-em-contrarian-analysts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Doom & Gloom at year\u2019s end: Bloomberg\u2019s Pessimist\u2019s Guide + 2019 looks miserable for EM, contrarian analysts say"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> If it\u2019s the end of the year, it\u2019s time for Doom & Gloom \u2014 Bloomberg style. <\/b>We look forward to the business information service\u2019s Pessimist\u2019s Guide every year, and the 2018 installment was really worth waiting for: It imagines what a run of climate disasters could do if they were to happen all at once. \u201cThe seeds were sown after an unexpectedly severe El Ni\u00f1o and widespread droughts diminished food production around the world, roiling trade patterns already broken by a tariff war. Hunger was rampant and refugees were on the move. \u2026 All the weather disasters and most of the policy scenarios described here have happened in the past. Just not at once.\u201d \u201cBonus\u201d: Egypt makes an appearance this year<\/b>, as the package imagines bread riots after spiraling wheat prices force the government to cut bread subsidies. Read: <\/b>The Pessimist's Guide to 2019: Fire, Floods and Famine<\/b><\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n

Requiring less imagination: Don\u2019t be fooled by eight consecutive weeks of inflows into emerging market assets.<\/b> Slower global growth, US interest rate hikes, the trade war and a weakening Chinese economy will all be bad for emerging markets in 2019, Bloomberg reports<\/a> after taking the pulse of contrarian analysts, including the Societe Generale strategist who called 2018 as the year of the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse. The best case scenario: A rebound sometime in 2019<\/b>, just don\u2019t ask the contrarians when that might take place, as the consensus appears that there is \u201cno imminent turnaround for EM assets.\u201d<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t cry for the carry trade: <\/b>The JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index (\u201cprobably the most-watched measure of its ilk\u201d) has fallen 10.9% so far this year and is down 43% since the start of 2000, the Financial Times reports \u2014 but in reality, \u201cthe major EM currencies, at least, have been a profitable investment for most investors.\u201d What gives? Sometimes, charts lie. Or don\u2019t tell the full truth. Read: <\/b>Emerging market currencies defy the doom mongers<\/b><\/a>.<\/b><\/p>\n

International news worth knowing<\/b> this morning:<\/p>\n