{"id":604811,"date":"2018-12-13T04:50:48","date_gmt":"2018-12-13T04:50:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/13\/more-2019-predictions-for-regional-global-economies-the-latest-critique-of-capitalism\/"},"modified":"2018-12-13T04:50:48","modified_gmt":"2018-12-13T04:50:48","slug":"more-2019-predictions-for-regional-global-economies-the-latest-critique-of-capitalism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/13\/more-2019-predictions-for-regional-global-economies-the-latest-critique-of-capitalism\/","title":{"rendered":"More 2019 predictions for regional, global economies + the latest critique of capitalism"},"content":{"rendered":"

Three stories worth looking at as you mull what the macro and global backdrops could look like in 2019. <\/b>(Because you already read that the IMF<\/a> and its outgoing chief economist<\/a> are concerned about what\u2019s coming down the pike for next year, right?)<\/p>\n

FIRST: Expect a year of turbulence in the GCC<\/b>, Bloomberg<\/a> argues in a piece that tackles the oil rout, Saudi geopolitics, Turkish policy, the prospect of leadership change, political instability and the ongoing embargo on Qatar.<\/p>\n

SECOND: The yield curve in the US will invert in 2019 \u2014 and recession will follow<\/b>, a Reuters poll of economists<\/a> found. The inversion could come within six months and a recession \u201ccould follow as soon as a year after that,\u201d the newswire argues. The catch: <\/b>As we\u2019ve previously noted, inversion has a near-perfect track record in predicting a recession will happen, but says nothing about when <\/i>it will take place. This is economists reading their version of the sheep\u2019s entrails so beloved of technical analysts.<\/p>\n

THIRD: US value stocks could stage a comeback <\/b>after \u201cradically\u201d underperforming growth stocks since the global financial crisis. \u201cValue investing consists of picking unloved stocks that are trading below their theoretical value in the hopes of significant profit when the firm falls into favour,\u201d the Financial Times<\/a> explains as it picks up on a Morgan Stanley research note that has caught the imagination of market watchers abroad.<\/p>\n

The latest critique of capitalism in the business press <\/b>is from none other than Martin Wolf, who bluntly declares in the salmon-colored paper that \u201cwe must rethink the purpose of the corporation<\/b><\/a>.\u201d We\u2019re not 100% down with his conclusion on competition, but the piece is worth a read \u2014 if only for its review of recent literature and for this paragraph: \u201cGiven the mantra of shareholder value maximisation and the inability of shareholders to monitor management, rewards have increasingly been linked not to the performance of the business in delivering on its purposes, but to accounting profits and the share price. Yet both are subject to manipulation. Some would argue that the result has been excessive remuneration \u2026 and chronic under-investment, too.\u201d<\/p>\n

International news worth knowing this morning:<\/b><\/p>\n

Theresa May is still prime minister <\/b>after 200 Tory MPs backed her<\/a> in a vote of confidence last night. May will travel to Brussels today<\/a> to \u201ctry to save her Brexit [agreement] with her authority shaken and her party bitterly divided.\u201d The secret ballot came after backbenchers rebelled over May abandoning a planned House of Commons vote<\/a> on Brexit.<\/p>\n

The latest in the US-China-Canada flap: <\/b>Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou has posted bail of CAD 10 mn in Vancouver as she fights extradition to the US, where she faces charges of sanctions busting, according to Reuters<\/a>. Amid a messy bid to cool off his trade war with China, The Donald has said he could intervene in the case if it is in the US\u2019 national interest (triggering a rebuke<\/a> from Ottawa). Meanwhile, China has arrested<\/a> a well-connected<\/a> former Canadian diplomat and Ottawa is openly asking what happened to a second citizen<\/a> who has been unreachable since he said he was being questioned by Chinese authorities.<\/p>\n

The Donald\u2019s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, was sentenced to three years in prison<\/b> yesterday \u201cafter denouncing Mr. Trump and explaining that \u2018I felt it was my duty to cover up his dirty deeds,\u2019\u201d the New York Times<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

In miscellany this morning:<\/b><\/p>\n