{"id":604715,"date":"2018-12-11T04:17:11","date_gmt":"2018-12-11T04:17:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/11\/november-inflation-rates-drop-sending-stock-market-up\/"},"modified":"2018-12-11T04:17:11","modified_gmt":"2018-12-11T04:17:11","slug":"november-inflation-rates-drop-sending-stock-market-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/11\/november-inflation-rates-drop-sending-stock-market-up\/","title":{"rendered":"November inflation rates drop, sending stock market up"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> You may now (at least temporarily) rejoice: Headline inflation fell last month: <\/b>Annual headline inflation dropped to 15.7% in November, down from 17.7% the previous month, falling back into the government\u2019s targeted range of 13% (+\/- 3%), statistics agency CAPMAS said<\/a>. The drop was a result of a steep fall in the prices of vegetables and poultry products, the agency said. Monthly inflation also fell, coming in at -0.8% in November, down from 2.6% in October. \u201cThe drop shows headline inflation is continuing its downward path after occasional volatility in food items subsided,\u201d said Hany Farahat, senior economist at CI Capital.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation, which doesn\u2019t include volatile goods, also fell in November<\/b>, coming in at 7.9% in November against 8.9% in October, CBE data showed (pdf)<\/a>. That\u2019s the lowest rate in two years.<\/b><\/p>\n

So prices are falling, right? <\/b>Nope. It just means that the rate at which prices were increasing slowed down. Stuff still got more expensive, just at a slower pace. Inflation decelerating \u2260 deflation, or falling prices.<\/p>\n

So why did inflation cool off? <\/b>You can thank concerted government action, it seems. \u201cThe government increased the supply of vegetables that had created a problem in months past,\u201d Pharos Holding head of research Radwa El Swaify told Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cThis helped bring the annual rate back in line with the target.\u201d Reuters also had the story<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Okay, but interest rates are going to fall now, right?<\/b> The central bank\u2019s monetary policy committee meets on Thursday, 27 December to decide on corridor rates, which it has left unchanged since May. The MPC last left rates on hold at its November meeting, citing accelerating inflation as the key reason for its move. \u201cThe fall in the core reading illustrates structural inflation is well-tamed and falling aggressively. This signals domestic demand is weak and can benefit from a policy rate cut over the coming few months,\u201d CI\u2019s Farahat said.<\/p>\n

The key there is \u201cover the coming few months,\u201d <\/b>and before you get excited about the prospect of an interest rate cut by year\u2019s end, remember that the November inflation figures don\u2019t reflect the government\u2019s recent decision to scrap the discounted customs exchange<\/a> rate for non-essential imports \u2014 a decision that could potentially send inflation up by as much as 1 ppt, Swaify said.<\/p>\n

Market reacts: <\/b>The EGX30, Egypt\u2019s benchmark stock market index, rose 2.8% on Monday, registering its biggest one-day gain in two years on the back of the drop in inflation, Reuters reported<\/a>. \u201cWe do believe as long as inflation numbers are under control, the government will not be pressed to increase interest rates, helping liquidity to circulate into local investments,\u201d Tariq Qaqish, managing director for asset management at Menacorp Financial Services in Dubai told the newswire.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You may now (at least temporarily) rejoice: Headline inflation fell last month: Annual headline inflation dropped to 15.7% in November, down from 17.7% the previous month, falling back into the government\u2019s targeted range of 13% (+\/- 3%), statistics agency CAPMAS said. The drop was a result of a steep fall in the prices of vegetables […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":604716,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[115,72,182,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-604715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f5d228db-a8cd-40e5-ab48-837d230ef3b1","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/12\/360.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[604710],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nNovember inflation rates drop, sending stock market up - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/11\/november-inflation-rates-drop-sending-stock-market-up\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"November inflation rates drop, sending stock market up\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"You may now (at least temporarily) rejoice: Headline inflation fell last month: Annual headline inflation dropped to 15.7% in November, down from 17.7% the previous month, falling back into the government\u2019s targeted range of 13% (+\/- 3%), statistics agency CAPMAS said. 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