{"id":604559,"date":"2018-12-06T04:03:10","date_gmt":"2018-12-06T04:03:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/06\/state-owned-banks-wont-be-able-to-prop-up-the-egp-for-much-longer-than-a-few-more-months-at-most-capital-economics\/"},"modified":"2018-12-06T04:03:10","modified_gmt":"2018-12-06T04:03:10","slug":"state-owned-banks-wont-be-able-to-prop-up-the-egp-for-much-longer-than-a-few-more-months-at-most-capital-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/06\/state-owned-banks-wont-be-able-to-prop-up-the-egp-for-much-longer-than-a-few-more-months-at-most-capital-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"State-owned banks won\u2019t be able to prop up the EGP for much longer than \u201ca few more months at most\u201d -Capital Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <b>State-owned banks won\u2019t be able to prop up the EGP for much longer than \u201ca few more months at most,\u201d <\/b>Capital Economics said in a research notethat suggests the Central Bank of Egypt had been leaning on state banks to mobilize their FX liquidity and thereby avoid agitating the IMF by directly intervening. Even though the EGP has outperformed its emerging market peers, Egypt\u2019s treasury market has seen an outflow of USD 8 bn in recent months. And since April, the yield on 10-year local currency government bonds has jumped by c. 300 bps while the EGX has lost 30% \u2014 all of it driven by \u201ca withdrawal of foreign investment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>Background: <\/b>Capital Economics had first flagged the possibility the CBE was pushing banks to prop up the EGP, a refrain <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2018\/11\/28\/foreigners-dump-egyptian-debt-for-seventh-month-in-a-row-more-speculation-that-state-banks-are-propping-up-the-egp\/\">Reuters picked up last month<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><b>Factoid of the morning: <\/b>The share of treasury bills held by foreign investors has tumbled from 33% in April to less than 20% now, Capital Economics writes.<\/p>\n<p><b>How soon is soon?<\/b> \u201cIt\u2019s difficult to know for how long this process could be sustained. At the current rate of depletion, banks would exhaust their FX assets in eight months,\u201d the consultancy said. \u201cBanks\u2019 foreign assets have fallen to 4% of total assets and they could drop to 2.5% of total assets, the level prior to the 2016 devaluation, by early 2019.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>So, what now? <\/b>The central bank has two options, Capital Economics argues: Allow the pound to weaken or draw down its FX reserves to defend the current rate.<\/p>\n<p><b>How much could the EGP slip? <\/b>Not much. \u201cGiven the improvement in Egypt\u2019s balance of payments position in recent years and that the pound doesn\u2019t appear to be overvalued, we doubt that the currency would experience a major leg down in this scenario. It would also send a positive signal about policymakers\u2019 commitment to a fully floating exchange rate,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 Jason Tuvey writes in the note. \u201cOverall, <b>we expect the pound to fall from USD 17.90 at present to USD 19 by the end of next year and to USD 20 by end-2020<\/b>,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/12\/05\/egypts-pound-set-to-weaken-as-banks-deplete-their-foreign-currency-reserves.html\">CNBC also breaks down the report<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>State-owned banks won\u2019t be able to prop up the EGP for much longer than \u201ca few more months at most,\u201d Capital Economics said in a research notethat suggests the Central Bank of Egypt had been leaning on state banks to mobilize their FX liquidity and thereby avoid agitating the IMF by directly intervening. Even though [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":604560,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[1433,271,1419,72,2234,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-604559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-capital-economics","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-egp","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"643c444f-149a-40d1-a010-040444763f6d","order":"0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/12\/1907.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[604551],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>State-owned banks won\u2019t be able to prop up the EGP for much longer than \u201ca few more months at most\u201d -Capital Economics - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/06\/state-owned-banks-wont-be-able-to-prop-up-the-egp-for-much-longer-than-a-few-more-months-at-most-capital-economics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"State-owned banks won\u2019t be able to prop up the EGP for much longer than \u201ca few more months at most\u201d -Capital Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"State-owned banks won\u2019t be able to prop up the EGP for much longer than \u201ca few more months at most,\u201d Capital Economics said in a research notethat suggests the Central Bank of Egypt had been leaning on state banks to mobilize their FX liquidity and thereby avoid agitating the IMF by directly intervening. 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Emerging market central banks are indirectly intervening in currency markets to contain inflation, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Agust\u00edn Carstens said in a speech earlier this month at the London School of Economics.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/4\/EGP-USD-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594319,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/egypt-to-be-the-regions-star-performer-in-2020-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":604559,"position":1},"title":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt to be the region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 -Capital Economics: Egypt will be the MENA region\u2019s \u201cstar performer\u201d in 2020 as the central bank continues to cut interest rates and the government loosens fiscal policy, William Jackson, chief EM economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Thursday. GDP will grow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/660.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":604958,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/12\/18\/egypt-paving-the-way-for-a-weaker-egp-with-simplified-fx-policy-capital-economics\/","url_meta":{"origin":604559,"position":2},"title":"Egypt \u201cpaving the way\u201d for a weaker EGP with simplified FX policy -Capital Economics","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 December 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt \u201cpaving the way\u201d for a weaker EGP with simplified FX policy, says Capital Economics: The EGP will likely weaken by end-2019 as policymakers work to \u201csimplify the country\u2019s exchange rate setup,\u201d Capital Economics said in a research note out yesterday. Recent moves by the Finance Ministry and CBE including\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559284,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/17\/no-rate-cuts-soon-capital-economics-predicts\/","url_meta":{"origin":604559,"position":3},"title":"No rate cuts soon, Capital Economics predicts","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt will hold off on resuming its monetary easing cycle \u201cfor much of this year\u201d due to rising inflation, James Swanston, MENA economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note on Wednesday. Rising food and fuel costs over the next 6-9 months will prevent the central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;OUTLOOK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"OUTLOOK","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/outlook\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/186.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574088,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/30\/the-planning-ministry-likes-what-the-intl-egypt-watchers-have-to-say-on-the-egp-foreign-reserves\/","url_meta":{"origin":604559,"position":4},"title":"The Planning Ministry likes what the int\u2019l Egypt-watchers have to say on the EGP, foreign reserves","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Planning Ministry likes what the int\u2019l Egypt-watchers have to say on the EGP, foreign reserves: The Planning Ministry is out with a summary (pdf) of international opinion on the trajectory of the EGP and foreign reserves in the months and years ahead as the economy begins to recover from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/239.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":622163,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/28\/foreigners-dump-egyptian-debt-for-seventh-month-in-a-row-more-speculation-that-state-banks-are-propping-up-the-egp\/","url_meta":{"origin":604559,"position":5},"title":"Foreigners dump Egyptian debt for seventh month in a row; more speculation that state banks are propping up the EGP","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreigners dump Egyptian debt for seventh month in a row; more speculation state that banks are propping up the EGP: Foreign investors exited some EGP 24.3 bn-worth of Egyptian treasuries in October, according to the central bank\u2019s monthly statistical bulletin (pdf). Non-Egyptian holdings of treasuries stood at EGP 210.2 bn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/310.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=604559"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604559\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/604551"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/604560"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=604559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=604559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=604559"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=604559"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=604559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}