{"id":602514,"date":"2019-03-31T03:49:05","date_gmt":"2019-03-31T03:49:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/31\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/"},"modified":"2019-03-31T03:49:05","modified_gmt":"2019-03-31T03:49:05","slug":"against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/31\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","title":{"rendered":"Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a><b> Central Bank of Egypt surprises as it leaves interest rates unchanged:<\/b> The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, going against expectations that it would cut rates by as much as 100 bps. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75% respectively and also left on hold its main operation and discount rates at 16.25%, the <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/2209.pdf\">CBE said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><b>This wasn\u2019t what (most) pundits were expecting:<\/b> After last month\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/02\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps-in-first-mpc-meeting-in-2019\/\">surprise 100 bps rate cut<\/a>, most economists had expected that last week\u2019s meeting would see the central bank cutting rates again ahead of Ramadan, the next round of subsidy cuts, and the summer and back-to-school season. Buoyed by the unexpected gift of the US Federal Reserve\u2019s signal that it was done raising rates, <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/03\/24\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-rates-by-up-to-100-bps-this-thursday\/\">Enterprise\u2019s poll of analysts<\/a> saw six out of 10 economists suggesting the MPC would have breathing room for a cut thanks to an appreciating EGP and improving fundamentals. Bloomberg\u2019s poll suggested the same, with only Reuters\u2019 survey suggesting the MPC would leave rates on hold.<\/p>\n<p><b>So, who called it? <\/b>From the Enterprise poll: EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha, Shuaa\u2019s Esraa Ahmed, Naeem\u2019s Allen Sandeep and Multiples\u2019 Omar El-Shenety all said the MPC would leave rates on hold.<\/p>\n<p><b>So, why no rate cut?<\/b> The central bank cited <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/03\/11\/inflation-back-on-the-rise-throwing-continued-easing-cycle-to-doubt\/\">accelerating inflation in February<\/a>, weakening global economic activity, trade tensions, weakened global financial tightening, and increases in oil prices for its decision to keep rates on hold. The decision \u201cis consistent with achieving the inflation target of 9% (\u00b13 percentage points) in 4Q2020 and price stability over the medium term,\u201d the statement reads.<\/p>\n<p><b>Inflation, EM volatility narrowed the window for monetary easing:<\/b> February\u2019s accelerating inflation narrowed \u201cthe margin of positive real rates ahead of upcoming subsidy cuts,\u201d EFG Hermes\u2019 Abu Basha <a href=\"https:\/\/af.reuters.com\/article\/egyptNews\/idAFL8N21F75O\">told Reuters<\/a>. Abu Basha also pointed to recent volatility in emerging markets, which he said has stalled the rally of the EGP and \u201cslightly increased risk aversion.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>The \u201castonishing\u201d decision to keep rates on hold may undermine the positive impact on the economy of February\u2019s rate cut<\/b>, Sigma Capital\u2019s Dina Rofael <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-03-28\/egypt-central-bank-holds-rates-steady-after-inflation-spike\">tells Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cWhen a central bank takes a decision to cut, it should be a cycle. To have an impact on the economy, there should be more than one cut taking place, one after the other.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b>Forget about a significant recovery in capex spending until the fall:<\/b> Last month\u2019s rate cut was seen as a \u201cgood start\u201d but not quite enough to encourage businesses to start borrowing for capex. Beltone Financial\u2019s Alia Mamdouh had <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/02\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps-in-first-mpc-meeting-in-2019\/\">said at the time<\/a> that the cut \u201cwill improve business sentiment, particularly with local investors, but we believe another cut will remain key for a material impact on unlocking capex lending potential.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Central Bank of Egypt surprises as it leaves interest rates unchanged: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, going against expectations that it would cut rates by as much as 100 bps. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":602515,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,72,349,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-602514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"40c38bba-e143-4a92-86a3-b2688aef51e8","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[602509],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/31\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Central Bank of Egypt surprises as it leaves interest rates unchanged: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, going against expectations that it would cut rates by as much as 100 bps. 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The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571553,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-may\/","url_meta":{"origin":602514,"position":1},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves rates unchanged in May","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE decides to keep a bullet in its chamber, leaving rates on hold at MPC meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates on hold for the second consecutive month when it met on Thursday, the central bank said in a statement(pdf). The bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/169.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":620711,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/05\/26\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":602514,"position":2},"title":"CBE leaves interest rates unchanged in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The MPC cited a slowdown in growth rates and cooling inflation","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/5\/1967.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599519,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/02\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-at-final-mpc-meeting-of-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":602514,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged at final MPC meeting of 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, citing global monetary policy tightening, trade wars and volatility in the oil market. The bank\u2019s monetary policy committee left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, and also left on hold its main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":602514,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569366,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/23\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-second-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":602514,"position":5},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, citing inflation and macro headwinds, according to an official statement (pdf). Uptick in inflation a key factor in the CBE\u2019s decision: The CBE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/278.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=602514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602514\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/602509"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/602515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=602514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=602514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=602514"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=602514"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=602514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}