{"id":602428,"date":"2019-03-27T03:55:51","date_gmt":"2019-03-27T03:55:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/27\/why-the-inverted-us-yield-curve-could-spell-trouble-for-emerging-markets\/"},"modified":"2019-03-27T03:55:51","modified_gmt":"2019-03-27T03:55:51","slug":"why-the-inverted-us-yield-curve-could-spell-trouble-for-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/27\/why-the-inverted-us-yield-curve-could-spell-trouble-for-emerging-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the inverted US yield curve could spell trouble for emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Why the inverted US yield curve could spell trouble for emerging markets:<\/b> An inverted US yield curve could be the harbinger of hard times for emerging markets, Shuli Ren writes for Bloomberg<\/a>. The yield spread between US three-month and 10-year Treasuries turned negative for the first time in over a decade on Friday, something that has presaged each of the past seven recessions in the US.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut what is an inverted yield curve?\u201d we hear you ask:<\/b> The yield curve measures the differences in interest rates paid on bonds of all maturities. A conventional curve will feature low rates attached to short-term bonds, with the yield increasing as the maturity increases. This is because short-term bonds are generally seen as being lower risk (there\u2019s less time in which something can go wrong), while long-term bonds are more likely to be affected by interest rate changes, defaults and economic slowdowns. The inverted curve flips this on its head, with short-term bonds carrying higher yields than long-term bonds. In this case, the yield on three-month US Treasurys<\/a> rose to 2.46% on Monday, higher than the 2.42% rate on 10-years.<\/p>\n

And how does this affect emerging markets?<\/b> One school of thought tells us that this might be a positive development for EM. Increasing chances of a US recession makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will lower rates. And the last time US curves inverted in 2006, EM high-yield bonds were unaffected \u2014 at least initially. But the threat of a US recession \u2014 one that is indirectly driven by China\u2019s underlying economic problems and increasingly wild stimulus measures \u2014 is real. \u201cThe last time this happened, EM debt happily churned along for a few months, until one day the music stopped,\u201d Ren says. \u201cThat party ended in tears.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why the inverted US yield curve could spell trouble for emerging markets: An inverted US yield curve could be the harbinger of hard times for emerging markets, Shuli Ren writes for Bloomberg. The yield spread between US three-month and 10-year Treasuries turned negative for the first time in over a decade on Friday, something that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":602429,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[82,104,115,72,349,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-602428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-bonds","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"caf421ef-dd12-4c7c-8dd4-644d42eebbab","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/738.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[602407],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhy the inverted US yield curve could spell trouble for emerging markets - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/27\/why-the-inverted-us-yield-curve-could-spell-trouble-for-emerging-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the inverted US yield curve could spell trouble for emerging markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Why the inverted US yield curve could spell trouble for emerging markets: An inverted US yield curve could be the harbinger of hard times for emerging markets, Shuli Ren writes for Bloomberg. 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Here in Egypt, the yield curve has been inverted since the EGP float in November 2016. But in contrast to the prophecies of doom we\u2019ve\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1869.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596138,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/19\/the-inverted-yield-curve-an-explainer\/","url_meta":{"origin":602428,"position":1},"title":"The inverted yield curve: An explainer","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There has been a lot of chatter about the inverted yield curve lately: The inverted yield curve is an infamous predictor of US recessions, having occurred before every downturn since 1950 (apart from one). And last week the alarm began to ring again, setting off fevered speculation in the financial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth watching"","block_context":{"text":"Worth watching","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-watching\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/2572.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596315,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/the-us-may-not-be-as-close-to-a-recession-as-the-yield-curve-suggests\/","url_meta":{"origin":602428,"position":2},"title":"The US may not be as close to a recession as the yield curve suggests","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The US is actually not as close to a recession as it seems, regardless of the chatter about the inverted yield curve: You know how everybody and their mother has been fretting over an impending recession in the US? 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