{"id":602278,"date":"2019-03-24T03:32:16","date_gmt":"2019-03-24T03:32:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/"},"modified":"2019-03-24T03:32:16","modified_gmt":"2019-03-24T03:32:16","slug":"emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/","title":{"rendered":"Emerging markets can\u2019t rely on a dovish Fed for much longer"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-05\"><\/a><b> Emerging markets can\u2019t rely on a dovish Fed for much longer:<\/b> Dovish moves by the US Federal Reserve are having less of an impact on emerging markets, <u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/83f1f72a-4c86-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62\">Jonathan Wheatley writes in the FT<\/a><\/u>. The Fed\u2019s decision to leave rates on hold last Wednesday did little to prevent <u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/3817908a-4cb3-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62\">EM indices falling at the end of the week<\/a><\/u> on global growth concerns. JPMorgan\u2019s EM Currency Index fell 1.7%, the MSCI Emerging Market index closed 1% down, and the MSCI Emerging Market ETF <u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/EEM:US\">tumbled almost 3%<\/a><\/u>. \u201cThe incremental bounce that you get from dovish surprises is becoming less and less,\u201d Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), told the FT.<\/p>\n<p><b>Less impact, less frequency:<\/b> It\u2019s one thing that dovish announcements are having less impact on emerging markets. But, according to Citi\u2019s chief EM strategist Luis Costa, they are also set to become less frequent. \u201cIt is difficult to imagine another sizeable help to EM assets \u2026 given that the markets already have a very good idea of the ultimate size of the [Fed\u2019s] balance sheet,\u201d he said last week. Any further surprises, he notes, will be because of a serious decline in the US growth prospects \u2014 something that could do more harm than good for risky EM assets.<\/p>\n<p><b>And overcrowding does not help the situation:<\/b> <u><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/02\/19\/em-currencies-begin-giving-traders-the-jitters\/\">A Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey<\/a><\/u> last month found that for the first time ever, emerging markets were the \u201cmost crowded trade\u201d following the huge spate of inflows in the opening weeks of 2019. Retail and institutional investors have increased their exposure to EM assets, with <u><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-emerging-markets-stocks\/no-one-is-breaking-out-the-champagne-emerging-markets-investors-treading-carefully-idUSKCN1R11WX\">year-to-date net fund inflows<\/a><\/u> currently at USD 15.7 bn, against USD 61.8 bn leaving developed markets. And according to IIF analysis cited by Brooks, the falling EM positions of international investors last year was due to falling prices, rather than capital flight. All of this means that EM holdings are sizeable and there may not be much headroom for them to increase. \u201cThe basic message is that after all these years, people are sort of risked up,\u201d Brooks says. \u201cFor each dovish surprise the incremental flow is less, and of worse quality.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emerging markets can\u2019t rely on a dovish Fed for much longer: Dovish moves by the US Federal Reserve are having less of an impact on emerging markets, Jonathan Wheatley writes in the FT. The Fed\u2019s decision to leave rates on hold last Wednesday did little to prevent EM indices falling at the end of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":602279,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[115,72,349,724,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-602278","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c55410e1-e4ba-4e93-978a-37e4e57a7b9c","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/807.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[602260],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Emerging markets can\u2019t rely on a dovish Fed for much longer - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Emerging markets can\u2019t rely on a dovish Fed for much longer\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Emerging markets can\u2019t rely on a dovish Fed for much longer: Dovish moves by the US Federal Reserve are having less of an impact on emerging markets, Jonathan Wheatley writes in the FT. The Fed\u2019s decision to leave rates on hold last Wednesday did little to prevent EM indices falling at the end of the [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-03-24T03:32:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/807.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Emerging markets can\u2019t rely on a dovish Fed for much longer\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-24T03:32:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/\"},\"wordCount\":366,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/807.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"emerging markets\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"interest rates\",\"monetary policy\",\"THE MACRO PICTURE\"],\"articleSection\":[\"THE MACRO PICTURE\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/emerging-markets-cant-rely-on-a-dovish-fed-for-much-longer\/\",\"name\":\"Emerging markets can\u2019t rely on a dovish Fed for much longer - 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The reality is a little more nuanced considering the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/2130.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601448,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/28\/ems-beginning-to-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":602278,"position":3},"title":"EMs beginning to boom?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EM inflows in January could signal the start of a boom period for developing economies, CrossBorder Capital MD Michael Howell argues in a piece for the FT. Data from multiple sources has suggested that financial inflows into emerging markets hit their highest levels in over a year in January. CrossBorder\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/2\/EM-currencies-web.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599283,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/24\/has-saudi-arabias-inclusion-among-msci-ems-actually-hurt-the-index\/","url_meta":{"origin":602278,"position":4},"title":"Has Saudi Arabia\u2019s inclusion among MSCI EM\u2019s actually hurt the index?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Has Saudi Arabia\u2019s inclusion among MSCI EMs actually hurt the index? The highly anticipated inclusion of Saudi stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has fueled a rally on the Tadawul, raising both inflows and valuations \u2014 but these have not been accompanied by a rise in earnings. On the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/950.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591667,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/12\/how-do-analysts-feel-about-emerging-markets-going-into-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":602278,"position":5},"title":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020? Emerging markets are set to outperform developed markets in 2020, predict 57 global investors, traders and strategists in a Bloomberg survey, with all assets \u2014 currencies, stocks, and bonds \u2014 having rallied this year after 2018\u2019s EM Zombie Apocalypse. Total\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/2354.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=602278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/602278\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/602260"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/602279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=602278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=602278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=602278"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=602278"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=602278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}