{"id":601905,"date":"2019-03-13T03:57:50","date_gmt":"2019-03-13T03:57:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/"},"modified":"2019-03-13T03:57:50","modified_gmt":"2019-03-13T03:57:50","slug":"ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"Ignore February\u2019s inflation data: The CBE could still cut rates this month- Capital Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-02\"><\/a> <b>Ignore February\u2019s inflation data: The CBE could still cut rates this month, Capital Economics suggests: <\/b>February\u2019s unexpectedly high inflation rates are unlikely to deter the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) from pushing ahead with rate cuts \u2014 and it may even opt to ease further this month, Capital Economics has said in a report. <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/03\/11\/inflation-back-on-the-rise-throwing-continued-easing-cycle-to-doubt\/\">Data this week<\/a> showed that headline inflation rose to 14.4% in February from 12.7% in January, driven by rising food, utilities and transportation costs. Still, strong capital inflows and \u201csubdued pressure\u201d on core prices mean that the central bank could cut during the next MPC meeting on 28 March. \u201cThe latest inflation reading has clearly made the outcome of the next MPC meeting more uncertain. But we still think that a further rate cut is more likely than not,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n<p><b>Are core price pressures actually subdued? <\/b>Core inflation increased to 9.2% last month from 8.6% in January. Capital Economics argues though it remains \u201crelatively subdued\u201d as it does not stray too far from the mid-point of the CBE\u2019s target range and is still one of the lowest rates seen over the past three years.<\/p>\n<p><b>Upcoming subsidy cuts also make easing more likely: <\/b>Capital Economics suggests that the CBE may want to get a rate cut in before the government trims subsidies in July. Why? Cutting subsidies will cause higher short-term inflation, making it harder for the central bank to ease in the summer months.<\/p>\n<p><b>What are other analysts saying? <\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/03\/11\/inflation-back-on-the-rise-throwing-continued-easing-cycle-to-doubt\/\">As we noted earlier this week<\/a>, there is no consensus among analysts on what to expect heading into this month\u2019s MPC meeting. Both EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha and Naeem Brokerage\u2019s Allen Sandeep predicted that the CBE will hold off on easing for the time being, while Radwa El Swaify at Pharos is calling another cut.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ignore February\u2019s inflation data: The CBE could still cut rates this month, Capital Economics suggests: February\u2019s unexpectedly high inflation rates are unlikely to deter the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) from pushing ahead with rate cuts \u2014 and it may even opt to ease further this month, Capital Economics has said in a report. Data [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[1433,72,182,349,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-601905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-capital-economics","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"a3964491-c2c5-4238-9bff-af2ea041e6d3","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"85d26ae1-a4bb-4a8b-be76-868a083e7ee7","story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[601898],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ignore February\u2019s inflation data: The CBE could still cut rates this month- Capital Economics - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ignore February\u2019s inflation data: The CBE could still cut rates this month- Capital Economics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ignore February\u2019s inflation data: The CBE could still cut rates this month, Capital Economics suggests: February\u2019s unexpectedly high inflation rates are unlikely to deter the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) from pushing ahead with rate cuts \u2014 and it may even opt to ease further this month, Capital Economics has said in a report. Data [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-03-13T03:57:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Ignore February\u2019s inflation data: The CBE could still cut rates this month- Capital Economics\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-13T03:57:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/\"},\"wordCount\":315,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Capital Economics\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"inflation\",\"interest rates\",\"monetary policy\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/13\/ignore-februarys-inflation-data-the-cbe-could-still-cut-rates-this-month-capital-economics\/\",\"name\":\"Ignore February\u2019s inflation data: The CBE could still cut rates this month- Capital Economics - 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The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":601905,"position":1},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the unexpected inflation rate in August, which dropped to the lowest level in six-and-a-half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567095,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":601905,"position":2},"title":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting. A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594912,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":601905,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year low in August, confounding expectations: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate fell to 7.5% in August from 8.7% in July, a low not seen January 2013, official data showed yesterday. Figures released by Capmas showed that monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% last month from 1.8%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1816.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592825,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/07\/cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":601905,"position":4},"title":"CBE to make third consecutive rate cut next week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists predict CBE will make third consecutive rate cut next Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets a week from today, according to five of six economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569366,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/23\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-second-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":601905,"position":5},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, citing inflation and macro headwinds, according to an official statement (pdf). Uptick in inflation a key factor in the CBE\u2019s decision: The CBE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/278.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/601905","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=601905"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/601905\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/601898"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=601905"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=601905"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=601905"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=601905"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=601905"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}