{"id":601448,"date":"2019-02-28T03:38:47","date_gmt":"2019-02-28T03:38:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/28\/ems-beginning-to-boom\/"},"modified":"2019-02-28T03:38:47","modified_gmt":"2019-02-28T03:38:47","slug":"ems-beginning-to-boom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/28\/ems-beginning-to-boom\/","title":{"rendered":"EMs beginning to boom?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> EM inflows in January could signal the start of a boom period for developing economies,<\/b> CrossBorder Capital MD Michael Howell argues in a piece for the FT<\/a><\/u>. Data from multiple sources has suggested that financial inflows into emerging markets hit their highest levels in over a year in January. CrossBorder\u2019s latest estimates indicate that USD 58 bn of net inflows entered emerging markets (minus China) while figures from the Institute of International Finance<\/a><\/u> showed that USD 51.1 bn was invested in EM equities and bonds last month. Expectations of further gains in the coming months are being driven by the US Federal Reserve\u2019s recent dovish tone and continued the preference of investors for the USD. \u201cCould January\u2019s large monthly step-up signal that the vital EM capital flow\/liquidity cycle is restarting again?\u201d he asks. \u201cIt may.\u201d<\/p>\n

The risk cycle<\/b>: When financial analysts talks about the EM risk cycle, they are referring to the process of boom and bust, caused in part by the Fed\u2019s monetary policy. Easing \u2014 or even just the expectation of easing \u2014 can precipitate large inflows into emerging markets, weakening the USD. As emerging markets boom, local investors pour capital into safer overseas investments, causing the USD to strengthen. This in turn increases demand for safer assets which puts increasing amounts of pressure on emerging currencies, and causing capital flight.<\/p>\n

But don\u2019t always rely on the rating agencies to gauge risk: <\/b>Credit rating agencies cannot be relied on to accurately monitor risk, Kate Allen writes in a separate article for the FT<\/a><\/u>. \u201cThe problems comes when credit ratings are combined in a mechanistic and simplistic way with other ways of outsourcing decisions, such as passive funds and index compilers,\u201d she writes. This leads to funds unwittingly investing in risky assets, believing them to be investment-grade. \u201cIt is an investment structure that is revealed to have done a bad job only when disaster arrives, as in the financial crisis,\u201d she says. \u201cBy the time the downgrades come, it will be too late.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EM inflows in January could signal the start of a boom period for developing economies, CrossBorder Capital MD Michael Howell argues in a piece for the FT. Data from multiple sources has suggested that financial inflows into emerging markets hit their highest levels in over a year in January. CrossBorder\u2019s latest estimates indicate that USD […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":601449,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[82,380,115,72,164,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-601448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-bonds","tag-currencies","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-equities","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dbecfe9d-143c-437a-b3cf-5716b781be86","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/2\/EM-currencies-web.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[601432],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEMs beginning to boom? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/28\/ems-beginning-to-boom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EMs beginning to boom?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"EM inflows in January could signal the start of a boom period for developing economies, CrossBorder Capital MD Michael Howell argues in a piece for the FT. 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A \u2018Goldilocks economy\u2019 refers to an economy that is neither booming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/1157.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591667,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/12\/how-do-analysts-feel-about-emerging-markets-going-into-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":601448,"position":5},"title":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020? 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