{"id":600994,"date":"2019-02-17T04:06:47","date_gmt":"2019-02-17T04:06:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps-in-first-mpc-meeting-in-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-02-17T04:06:47","modified_gmt":"2019-02-17T04:06:47","slug":"central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps-in-first-mpc-meeting-in-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps-in-first-mpc-meeting-in-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps in first MPC meeting in 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The Central Bank of Egypt cut its key interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday <\/b>in a move that surprised pundits: Nine of 11 economists surveyed in our Enterprise poll<\/a> ahead of the meeting had suggested that the MPC would leave the rates on hold. The central bank cited lower inflation and unemployment, higher growth rates and slower global tightening.<\/p>\n

Where do rates stand this morning? <\/b>The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit and lending rates stand at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively. The bank also cut its main operation and discount rates to 16.25%, the CBE said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The \u201cwell-justified\u201d rate cut \u201cillustrates the CBE\u2019s confidence in Egypt\u2019s economic outlook, despite global headwinds,\u201d <\/b>said CI Capital\u2019s Hany Farahat, who called the rate cut. \u201cThe decision capitalizes on improving FX, capital flows, and inflation dynamics, and bodes well with our favorable balance of payments during 2019. We believe taking this step, days following the IMF\u2019s disbursement of the fifth USD 2 bn loan tranche, signals the fund\u2019s endorsement of an expansionary policy ahead.\u201d<\/p>\n

So why did the central bank cut rates? <\/b>Read on:<\/p>\n

Inflation within target range: <\/b>Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate increased slightly to 12.7%<\/a> in January compared to 12% the previous month, while annual core inflation went up to 8.6% from 8.3%, remaining within the CBE\u2019s target inflation range of 13% (\u00b13%), the CBE said, adding that it\u2019s targeting a rate of 9% (\u00b13%) for 4Q2020. Core inflation strips out volatile items such as food and fuel.<\/p>\n

GDP, unemployment:<\/b> GDP growth increased slightly to 5.5% in 4Q2018 from 5.3% in 3Q2018, the CBE said in its note, pointing out that the unemployment rate has also declined to 8.9% from 10%, its lowest level since December 2010.<\/p>\n

Private demand \u201ccontained\u201d: <\/b>The CBEsaid while external demand was looking up, local demand was suffering. \u201cPreliminary data for 3Q2018 indicate that net external demand continued to support economic activity while private domestic demand remained contained,\u201d the CBE said.<\/p>\n

Slower global tightening and stable oil prices: <\/b>The CBE also cited slower global growth, slower tightening of monetary policy globally as well as stable oil prices as factors that affected its decision on Thursday. \u201cThe expansion of global economic activity weakened, and the tightening of financial conditions eased, while trade tensions continued to weigh on the global outlook. International oil prices recently stabilized, yet remain subject to volatility due to potential supply-side factors,\u201d the CBE said.<\/p>\n

Business thinks it\u2019s a good start \u2014 but only a start: <\/b>\u201cThis is a good start and gives a good signal on the investment environment in Egypt, but we want more cuts and we hope the currency won\u2019t weaken again because it will impact purchasing power and our business consequently,\u201d Domty Vice Chairman Mohamed El Damaty told us. \u201cWe have already began expansion, but the rate cut helps us do more. Still, we are monitoring planned subsidy cuts this year and their impact on inflation, FX rates and whether further interest rate cuts are in the card. That will give us a clearer picture and help us set long-term plans.\u201d<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t expect businesses to start borrowing again soon: <\/b>\u201cThe much-needed interest rates cut will improve business sentiment, particularly with local investors, but we believe another cut will remain key for a material impact on unlocking CAPEX lending potential,\u201d said Alia Mamdouh, director of macro and strategy at Beltone Financial.<\/p>\n

So, which stocks win? <\/b>\u201cIt would bring down the cost of capital and this will be specifically positive for leveraged stocks such as Ezz Steel<\/b>, GB Auto<\/b> and Qalaa Holdings<\/b>,\u201d Allen Sandeep, head of research at Naeem Brokerage, told us. \u201cIt is also good news for consumers stocks like Juhayna<\/b>, Obourland<\/b> and Domty<\/b> as spending will pick up. It\u2019s neutral for the banks<\/b> as treasury yields have dropped already by more than 1.5 percentage points, in anticipation of the rate cut, in our view.\u201d Sandeep also believes that the cut will also draw us closer to the kickstart of state IPOs as the opportunity cost of capital drops.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Carry traders don\u2019t see subsidy cuts planned for July delaying future rate cuts<\/b>, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. The prospect of further easing could drive the carry trade to buy into local currency debt now.<\/p>\n

So what about the EGP? <\/b>That appetite from the carry trade will help support the EGP, economist Reham El Desoki told Bloomberg. Added Beltone\u2019s Mamdouh: \u201cWe reiterate our view of a limited downward pressure on the EGP in 2019 as investment recovery remains subdued.\u201d The \u201cwaves of outflows\u201d that Egypt experienced last year are unlikely<\/b>, Mamdouh said, as \u201cthe attractive yields will continue to attract more foreigners.\u201d<\/p>\n

A more volatile EGP? <\/b>Though it reflects growing investor confidence in Egypt, the shift toward the open market is also likely to expose the pound to more volatility, the business information service said. \u201cA more volatile EGP could be an additional risk to the outlook,\u201d Bloomberg writes. And while CBE Governor Tarek Amer said the CBE will stand ready against speculators, the Finance Ministry is predicting that the EGP will depreciate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt cut its key interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday in a move that surprised pundits: Nine of 11 economists surveyed in our Enterprise poll ahead of the meeting had suggested that the MPC would leave the rates on hold. The central bank cited lower inflation and unemployment, higher growth […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":600995,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,182,349,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-600994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"89f76640-10e5-400b-8873-c5675f97164d","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[600989],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCentral Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps in first MPC meeting in 2019 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps-in-first-mpc-meeting-in-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps in first MPC meeting in 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt cut its key interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday in a move that surprised pundits: Nine of 11 economists surveyed in our Enterprise poll ahead of the meeting had suggested that the MPC would leave the rates on hold. 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The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":600994,"position":1},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the unexpected inflation rate in August, which dropped to the lowest level in six-and-a-half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596299,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-for-the-first-time-since-february\/","url_meta":{"origin":600994,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates for the first time since February","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts interest rates for the first time since February: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 150 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s \u201crelatively tame\u201d inflation figures, declining unemployment rates, and increasing GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/2941.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593045,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":600994,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with market expectations: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited inflation\u2019s continued deceleration in October, with annual headline inflation hitting its lowest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594183,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/22\/fitch-forecasts-50-bps-rate-cut-in-november-mpc-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":600994,"position":4},"title":"Fitch forecasts 50 bps rate cut in November MPC meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Solutions expects the CBE to cut interest rates by 0.5% before the end of the year, and 1.5% in 2020, Masrawy said, citing a report. The data vendor arm of the ratings agency said that easing inflation and the two consecutive rate cuts in the US will encourage the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567288,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/19\/against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":600994,"position":5},"title":"Against analyst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged when it met on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/600994","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=600994"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/600994\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/600989"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/600995"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=600994"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=600994"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=600994"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=600994"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=600994"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}