{"id":600595,"date":"2019-02-04T03:40:50","date_gmt":"2019-02-04T03:40:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/04\/deutsche-bank-sees-potential-rate-cut-in-march-but-sees-egypt-missing-fiscal-deficit-targets-this-year\/"},"modified":"2019-02-04T03:40:50","modified_gmt":"2019-02-04T03:40:50","slug":"deutsche-bank-sees-potential-rate-cut-in-march-but-sees-egypt-missing-fiscal-deficit-targets-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/04\/deutsche-bank-sees-potential-rate-cut-in-march-but-sees-egypt-missing-fiscal-deficit-targets-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Deutsche Bank sees potential rate cut in March, but sees Egypt missing fiscal deficit targets this year"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Deutsche Bank sees potential rate cut in March:<\/b> The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to keep interest rates on hold throughout 1Q2019, but a \u201c100 bps rate cut cannot be ruled out\u201d in March, Deutsche Bank said in a research note out on Friday. \u201cGiven the upside risks to inflation stemming from further subsidy cuts in Q2-19 and the adjustment to [the] customs exchange rate for luxury and nonessential goods, the CBE is more likely to start easing by the end of Q2-2019.\u201d The CBE\u2019s monetary policy committee will next meet to review rates on Thursday, 14 February.<\/p>\n

DB sees Egypt missing its fiscal deficit targets this year<\/b> due to the state budget assuming \u201cunrealistic average oil price and yield levels,\u201d despite global crude prices currently hovering at USD 60\/bbl, which is below the budget\u2019s projections of USD 67\/bbl. Demand for Egyptian t-bills has picked up, the bank notes, saying that it maintains a bullish outlook on Egypt\u2019s local assets. \u201cHowever, we note that it is important for the CBE to walk a fine-line between cutting rates to support public credit growth while not front-loading the easing cycle to reduce the risk-reward for foreign investors when increasing exposure to Egyptian local products.\u201d Deutsche notes that \u201cthe FY-19 budget projects that the \ufb01scal de\ufb01cit will narrow to 8.4% of GDP (or EGP 438.8bn) compared to 9.8% in FY-18 (this may be subject to upward revision) with a primary balance of 2% of GDP (compared to 0.2% in the previous FY). We believe the government will not be able to meet its FY 2018-19 \ufb01scal de\ufb01cit target.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Deutsche Bank sees potential rate cut in March: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to keep interest rates on hold throughout 1Q2019, but a \u201c100 bps rate cut cannot be ruled out\u201d in March, Deutsche Bank said in a research note out on Friday. \u201cGiven the upside risks to inflation stemming from further subsidy 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Bank sees potential rate cut in March, but sees Egypt missing fiscal deficit targets this year - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/04\/deutsche-bank-sees-potential-rate-cut-in-march-but-sees-egypt-missing-fiscal-deficit-targets-this-year\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Deutsche Bank sees potential rate cut in March, but sees Egypt missing fiscal deficit targets this year\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Deutsche Bank sees potential rate cut in March: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to keep interest rates on hold throughout 1Q2019, but a \u201c100 bps rate cut cannot be ruled out\u201d in March, Deutsche Bank said in a research note out on Friday. \u201cGiven the 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