{"id":600399,"date":"2019-01-29T04:26:26","date_gmt":"2019-01-29T04:26:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/"},"modified":"2019-01-29T04:26:26","modified_gmt":"2019-01-29T04:26:26","slug":"why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/","title":{"rendered":"Why did the EGP gain against the greenback yesterday?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Connecting the dots: The EGP keeps strengthening, yields keep falling:<\/b> The EGP continued rising against the USD this week, strengthening to a selling price of 17.70 to the USD from around EGP 18.00 last Wednesday. Simultaneously, yields on Egyptian three- and nine-months T-bills fell at Sunday\u2019s auction to their lowest level since May of last year to 18.114% and 18.203%, respectively, as demand surpassed expectation, according to central bank data<\/a>. The story of the EGP strengthening sets the nation on fire yesterday. Here\u2019s what could be happening:<\/p>\n

Possibility #1: supply and demand: <\/b>The appreciation of the EGP reflects higher demand from both portfolio investors and local banks for T-bills, Pharos Holding Head of Research Radwa El-Swaify tells us. The impact of the demand is more pronounced now that the central bank\u2019s parallel repatriation system for foreign investors has been wound down. She sees the chattering over the appreciation as much ado about nothing, saying it is natural that the EGP will fluctuate. Pharos is leaving unchanged its forecast of an average USD-EGP exchange rate of 18.50 <\/b>barring any major foreign currency inflows.<\/p>\n

Possibility #2: the CBE:<\/b> \u201cThe strengthening of the EGP is worrying and orchestrated,\u201d an unnamed official told Reuters<\/a>. \u201cIt has nothing to do with supply and demand.\u201d To put that in context: CBE Governor Tarek Amer had said last week<\/a> that January was set to be the first month of net positive inflows for Egypt since May 2018 \u2014 and suggested that some volatility in the EGP-USD exchange rate was to be expected. Reuters reported yesterday<\/a> that Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt alone have brought in USD 1.8 bn of inflows in January. And the USD slipped<\/a> yesterday ahead of US-China trade talks and this week\u2019s Fed decision, as we note in What We\u2019re Tracking Today, above.<\/p>\n

A finger on the scale to prove a point? <\/b>The domestic press has taken it as an article of faith that Amer\u2019s expectation of EGP volatility going forward was more than theoretical. Bankers and other analysts with whom we spoke yesterday are buying into the appreciation being a deliberate weighing of the scales in favor of the EGP to hit back at potential market speculators. All, however, see the EGP depreciating. Amer himself had reiterated that the CBE was out of the currency management business.<\/p>\n

Do the appreciation yesterday and Amer\u2019s remarks last week suggest we\u2019re really letting the EGP float? <\/b>As we\u2019ve previously noted<\/a>, pundits including Capital Economics and news outlets including Reuters have all suggested that the CBE is using the banking system to indirectly intervene and keep the EGP stable. The parallel repatriation mechanism, which the CBE scrapped last month, also helped in that respect.<\/p>\n

The consensus on where the EGP is headed <\/b>forecasts a gentle slip against the greenback over the coming 18-24 months, with most analysts we\u2019ve surveyed seeing it at about EGP 20 by the end of next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Connecting the dots: The EGP keeps strengthening, yields keep falling: The EGP continued rising against the USD this week, strengthening to a selling price of 17.70 to the USD from around EGP 18.00 last Wednesday. Simultaneously, yields on Egyptian three- and nine-months T-bills fell at Sunday\u2019s auction to their lowest level since May of last […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":600400,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[7106,72,2234,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-600399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-debt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"af3b07f8-e0ea-436d-911d-ddd6ee9e03c1","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/18.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[600394],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhy did the EGP gain against the greenback yesterday? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why did the EGP gain against the greenback yesterday?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Connecting the dots: The EGP keeps strengthening, yields keep falling: The EGP continued rising against the USD this week, strengthening to a selling price of 17.70 to the USD from around EGP 18.00 last Wednesday. Simultaneously, yields on Egyptian three- and nine-months T-bills fell at Sunday\u2019s auction to their lowest level since May of last […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-01-29T04:26:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/18.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Why did the EGP gain against the greenback yesterday?\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-29T04:26:26+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/\"},\"wordCount\":495,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/18.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"debt\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"foreign exchange\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/29\/why-did-the-egp-gain-against-the-greenback-yesterday\/\",\"name\":\"Why did the EGP gain against the greenback yesterday? 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The government sold EGP 5.2 bn of 3-month T-bills in a Sunday auction out of EGP 9.25 bn targeted, CBE data shows. Average yields for the 3-month notes came at 17.899% \u2014 a marginal increase\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593140,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/19\/central-bank-of-egypt-sells-usd-1-56-bn-in-1-year-usd-t-bills\/","url_meta":{"origin":600399,"position":1},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt sells USD 1.56 bn in 1-year USD T-Bills","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE sells USD 1.56 bn in 1-year USD T-Bills: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) sold yesterday USD 1.56 bn in 1-year USD-denominated T-bills, official CBE data shows. The bills carry an average yield of 3.587%, falling slightly from 3.87% in the last similar auction in June, which saw Egypt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569016,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/11\/egp-surges-to-new-three-year-highs-against-the-greenback\/","url_meta":{"origin":600399,"position":2},"title":"EGP surges to new three-year highs against the greenback","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CURRENCY WATCH- EGP surges to new three-year highs against the greenback: The EGP rallied yesterday to its highest value against the USD since it was floated three years ago as part of the country\u2019s IMF-backed economic reform program, Reuters reports. The greenback was changing hands at EGP 15.67 yesterday. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/144.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570353,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-sells-more-t-bills-than-target-for-the-first-time-in-months\/","url_meta":{"origin":600399,"position":3},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt sells more t-bills than target for the first time in months","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE overshoots t-bill auction target for the first time in weeks: The Central Bank of Egypt sold EGP 25.96 bn of treasury bills in two auctions that sought to raise EGP 20 bn, according to the official data. The CBE sold EGP 12.42 bn of six-month bills in a EGP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601049,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/18\/yields-plunge-at-government-t-bills-auction\/","url_meta":{"origin":600399,"position":4},"title":"Yields plunge at government T-bills auction","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Yields plunge at government t-bill auction: Average yields on three-month and nine-month t-bills fell at the Central Bank\u2019s auction yesterday to 17.453% and 17.686%, respectively, from 18.202% and 18.543% at the last auction, central bank data shows. That said: The central bank sold only EGP 102.95 mn worth of three-month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596345,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/26\/interest-rate-cut-could-save-egypts-coffers-egp-15-in-debt-service\/","url_meta":{"origin":600399,"position":5},"title":"Interest rate cut could save Egypt\u2019s coffers EGP 15 in debt service","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Last week\u2019s interest rate cut could save Egypt\u2019s coffers EGP 15 bn in debt service: The Finance Ministry could spend EGP 10-15 bn less on interest it owes to investors during 2Q FY2019\/2020 after the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) last week cut benchmark rates by 150 bps, unnamed government\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/600399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=600399"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/600399\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/600394"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/600400"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=600399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=600399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=600399"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=600399"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=600399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}