{"id":600190,"date":"2019-01-22T04:13:24","date_gmt":"2019-01-22T04:13:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-21-january-2019-2\/"},"modified":"2019-01-22T04:13:24","modified_gmt":"2019-01-22T04:13:24","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-21-january-2019-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-21-january-2019-2\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 21 January 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

The World Economic Forum gets underway in Davos this morning <\/b>and runs through Friday. The theme: \u201cGlobalization 4.0: Shaping global architecture in the age of the fourth industrial revolution.\u201d Yeah, yeah, we know. But still\u2026 Links you may want to consider: the agenda<\/a> | live broadcast<\/a> of select sessions | the WEF\u2019s blog<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Why you should care: <\/b>Mock it as we may for being winter camp for the chattering class, the gathering helps set the mood for the year on the global economy. And it takes on new importance in a year like this, when the question about both the global economy and financial markets boils down to the same thing: Is 2019 going to be \u201cokay\u201d or a \u201cdisaster\u201d?<\/p>\n

Finance Minister Mohamed Maait boarded a plane yesterday to Davos<\/b>, according to a ministry statement<\/a>. Maait, who is on a perpetual roadshow to drum up interest in Egyptian debt, will push the nation\u2019s reform story and talk about new \u201csovereign financing models.\u201d<\/p>\n

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<\/a> Just in time for Davos, the IMF has revised downward its forecast for global growth for the second time in three months<\/b> in an update to its World Economic Outlook<\/a>. It blamed weakening demand in Europe and negative sentiment in the financial markets. The fund now projects global economic growth will top out at 3.5% in 2019, the slowest rate in three years.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the same story for emerging markets: <\/b>The latest outlook forecasts EM growth of 4.5% over the next 12 months, falling slightly below the 4.7% and 4.6% GDP estimates for 2017 and 2018, respectively. It notes that conditions have \u201ctightened modestly\u201d since October on the back of increasing tariffs, rising US interest rates and volatility in the oil markets.<\/p>\n

MENA+ will grow just 2.4% in 2019: <\/b>The forecast for MENA countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan has followed suit, with the IMF now projecting 2.4% growth in 2019, down from the previous forecast of 2.7%. By contrast, every forecast we\u2019ve seen forecasts Egypt to grow north of 5% this year.<\/p>\n

Buckle up<\/b>: Speaking ahead of the Davos summit, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde<\/b> warned of \u201csignificantly higher risks\u201d in the months ahead as trade tensions and worries in the financial markets weigh on the global economy. \u201cThe risk of a sharper decline in global growth has certainly has increased,\u201d<\/b> she said, stopping short of recession-talk. Watch her statement here (watch, runtime: 3:03<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The IMF\u2019s downbeat note hit US and EU shares yesterday<\/b>, Bloomberg said<\/a>. The news \u201cmerely cemented an already downbeat mood,\u201d the newspaper notes. Asian and US futures suggest lower opens for global markets today<\/a>. Together with the news that Chinese growth had slipped, the IMF\u2019s warning has sent investors piling into the USD and other safe-haven currencies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The IMF\u2019s warning is front-page news in the global business press <\/b>this morning: CNBC<\/a> | FT<\/a> | WSJ<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a> | Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The mood on global economic growth in one image:<\/b><\/p>\n

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And in non-Davos miscellany this morning:<\/b><\/p>\n