{"id":599931,"date":"2019-01-15T04:25:44","date_gmt":"2019-01-15T04:25:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/15\/what-were-tracking-on-15-january-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-01-15T04:25:44","modified_gmt":"2019-01-15T04:25:44","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-15-january-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/15\/what-were-tracking-on-15-january-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 15 January 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Picking up where we left off yesterday: Concerns over the Chinese economy dominate headlines <\/b>in the global business press. The country reported a 4.4% drop in exports in December \u2014 the lowest drop in two years according to the FT<\/a> \u2014 a result largely attributed to the trade war with the US. A 7.6% drop in imports has got everyone freaking out over a slowdown in China\u2019s growth. The results did a number on Asian markets, as the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific ex-Japan shares fell 1%, its lowest single day drop in two weeks, according to Reuters<\/a>. The FTSE sagged 0.9% yesterday, but Asian shares were cautiously up heading into dispatch time this morning.<\/p>\n

The impact of China\u2019s slowdown is spreading<\/b>, the FT\u2019s editorial board<\/a> warns, noting that Apple (US), Samsung (Korea) and Jaguar Land Rover (UK) are all feeling the pinch of a slowing Chinese economy. \u201cThe warnings are a sign of the deepening economic distress in the world\u2019s second-largest economy,\u201d the salmon-colored paper warns, \u201cand this will have a far bigger external impact in the coming year than it did in 2018.\u201d And there\u2019s plenty more (corporate) pain to come: <\/b>Nike, Starbucks, chipmaker Texas Instruments and owners of major global consumer brands could all be next to add fuel to the fire as US earnings season begins this week, the Wall Street Journal<\/a> adds.<\/p>\n

Should we expect the Fed to ride to the rescue? No, says UBS: <\/b>The US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice this year, UBS Global Wealth Management predicts, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. A top UBS pundit says a strong US economy may give the Fed an incentive to continue to raise borrowing costs. The Swiss financial services firm joins JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America in predicting more tightening. The Fed raised rates four times in 2018, with a 25 basis point bump in December bringing its benchmark rate to 2.5%.<\/p>\n

So should emerging markets be cringing right about now? Not necessarily<\/b>, says a top money manager at Fidelity. With Fed boss Jay Powell having hinted that the Fed could take a more cautious approach to rate hikes this year, Fidelity\u2019s Paul Greer told Bloomberg<\/a> that, \u201cThe USD has now peaked, Fed policy has turned and China is responding to slower growth momentum with monetary and fiscal stimulus. All of these factors, coupled with cheap valuations and a recovering oil price, should be supportive for EM risk-asset performance.\u201d<\/p>\n

In miscellany this morning:<\/b><\/p>\n