{"id":599897,"date":"2019-01-14T04:53:17","date_gmt":"2019-01-14T04:53:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/14\/are-recessions-as-inevitable-as-aging-or-do-we-summon-them-by-expecting-them\/"},"modified":"2019-01-14T04:53:17","modified_gmt":"2019-01-14T04:53:17","slug":"are-recessions-as-inevitable-as-aging-or-do-we-summon-them-by-expecting-them","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/14\/are-recessions-as-inevitable-as-aging-or-do-we-summon-them-by-expecting-them\/","title":{"rendered":"Are recessions as inevitable as aging or do we summon them by expecting them?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Recessions remain one of the greatest mysteries of economics: Is old age the culprit, or are they self-fulfilling prophecies? <\/b>Economists widely disagree on the root causes of recessions \u2014 and often falter when it comes to predicting them. The theories for why long-term growth occasionally leads to economies going belly up are many \u2014 but often contradict one another and are rarely backed by data, Peter Coy writes for Bloomberg Businessweek<\/a>. Growth streaks, like the US\u2019 current 10-year-long one, often raise questions on whether a slowdown is just around the corner. Economists recently surveyed by Bloomberg see a 25% probability of a US recession this year, up from 20 percent in a survey in December.<\/p>\n

Is it the gray hair?<\/b> Coy points out that while there has yet to emerge a concrete theory for the business cycle,a popular belief is that expansions just die as they age \u2014 when consumer, business and investor confidence decay, so do economic expansions.<\/p>\n

Self-fulfilling prophecy: <\/b>Animals spirits \u2014 the notion of how consumer psychology affects markets and, in doing so, the economy as a whole \u2014has been known to usher in recessions. In other words, growth can be \u201cmurdered\u201d when we start preparing its funeral prematurely, Coy points out. It\u2019s not always the consumers driving sentiment though \u2014 do-gooders can be the biggest troublemakers: If the Fed keeps raising interest rates, what does that tell us exactly about the US economy? Coy asks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recessions remain one of the greatest mysteries of economics: Is old age the culprit, or are they self-fulfilling prophecies? Economists widely disagree on the root causes of recessions \u2014 and often falter when it comes to predicting them. The theories for why long-term growth occasionally leads to economies going belly up are many \u2014 but […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":599898,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[116,72,2403,127,1510,117],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-599897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-china","tag-enterpriseam","tag-global-economy","tag-politics","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-us","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"53f06d69-1b86-4f64-9d8e-2ae8e6712097","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/1\/2538.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[599877],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nAre recessions as inevitable as aging or do we summon them by expecting them? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/14\/are-recessions-as-inevitable-as-aging-or-do-we-summon-them-by-expecting-them\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are recessions as inevitable as aging or do we summon them by expecting them?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Recessions remain one of the greatest mysteries of economics: Is old age the culprit, or are they self-fulfilling prophecies? 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With the Fed feeling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth watching"","block_context":{"text":"Worth watching","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-watching\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/897.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572976,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/15\/why-we-now-need-to-be-talking-more-about-ems\/","url_meta":{"origin":599897,"position":2},"title":"Why we now need to be talking more about EMs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Why we now need to be talking more about EMs: Middle-income economies that stand halfway between the world\u2019s richest and poorest \u201care uniquely vulnerable in the pandemic.\u201d Despite this, those countries have largely been absent from the global narrative about the extraordinary steps needed to shield the global economy from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557917,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/wall-street-banks-are-getting-nervy-on-stocks-economists-are-calling-the-feds-bluff-on-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":599897,"position":3},"title":"Wall Street banks are getting nervy on stocks + economists are calling the Fed\u2019s bluff on interest rates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Have US equities peaked? Some analysts are beginning to think so, after US stocks last week saw their worst performance since June, according to the Financial Times. The S&P 500 closed down 1.7% over the week on Friday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1.6%, as investors started to take heed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/487.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596138,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/19\/the-inverted-yield-curve-an-explainer\/","url_meta":{"origin":599897,"position":4},"title":"The inverted yield curve: An explainer","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There has been a lot of chatter about the inverted yield curve lately: The inverted yield curve is an infamous predictor of US recessions, having occurred before every downturn since 1950 (apart from one). And last week the alarm began to ring again, setting off fevered speculation in the financial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth watching"","block_context":{"text":"Worth watching","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-watching\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/2572.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596315,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/the-us-may-not-be-as-close-to-a-recession-as-the-yield-curve-suggests\/","url_meta":{"origin":599897,"position":5},"title":"The US may not be as close to a recession as the yield curve suggests","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The US is actually not as close to a recession as it seems, regardless of the chatter about the inverted yield curve: You know how everybody and their mother has been fretting over an impending recession in the US? It\u2019s actually \u201ca less than 50-50 proposition,\u201d Peter Coy writes for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth reading"","block_context":{"text":"Worth reading","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-reading\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/743.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/599897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=599897"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/599897\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/599877"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/599898"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=599897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=599897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=599897"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=599897"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=599897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}