{"id":599480,"date":"2023-08-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/14\/the-treasury-market-is-continuing-to-forecast-a-us-recession\/"},"modified":"2023-08-14T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T00:00:00","slug":"the-treasury-market-is-continuing-to-forecast-a-us-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/14\/the-treasury-market-is-continuing-to-forecast-a-us-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"The treasury market is continuing to forecast a US recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

US recession could still be on the cards as bond investors continue pessimistic <\/strong> outlook: <\/strong> Investors in US treasuries are still betting<\/a> that the Federal Reserve\u2019s interest rate hikes will push the country into a recession, despite growing Wall Street optimism<\/a> to the contrary, reports the Wall Street Journal<\/a>. Yields on short-term US government bonds continue to far surpass those on long-term bonds, a phenomenon known as the inverted yield curve that has preceded every recession in the past five decades. Past data indicates that the curve un-inverts shortly before a recession, with short-term bond yields falling because the Fed is cutting rates or is close to doing so.<\/p>\n

EM bonds are (so far) unscathed by rising US yields: <\/strong> Local-currency emerging-market debt is holding up even as yields rise in the US, as slowing inflation and expectations for easier monetary policy keep investors interested in the asset class, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cThe disinflation process in emerging markets is proceeding faster than we had previously expected \u2014 this should allow EM central banks to cut rates sooner and faster than developed-market ones,\u201d said one strategist. \u201cWe remain overweight EM local-currency bonds.\u201d<\/p>\n

Expect more pressure in the coming weeks and months as the Fed continues to <\/strong> unwind its balance sheet: <\/strong> The Fed\u2019s balance sheet is expected to have shrunk its balance sheet by USD 1 tn by the end of August, as the central bank continues to reverse the years of easy pandemic-era monetary policy, reports the Financial Times<\/a>. The bank\u2019s huge bond-buying program in the wake of the pandemic saw its balance sheet balloon to a record USD 8.55 tn, which it is now in the process of reversing as it tightens financial conditions in response to last year\u2019s soaring inflation.<\/p>\n

Why is this bad news for bonds? <\/strong> The Fed\u2019s move to so-called quantitative tightening involves it selling back to the market the bonds it purchased from investors to steady the financial system during the crash in March 2020. This will sharply increase the supply of debt, driving up borrowing costs and potentially destabilizing the market.<\/p>\n

ALSO- <\/strong> KSA completes bond buyback ahead of <\/strong>maiden sukuk sale<\/a><\/strong> : <\/strong> Saudi Arabia has bought back SAR 35.7 bn (USD 9.5 bn) of outstanding debt and will replace it with a SAR 35.9 bn sukuk issuance maturing at later dates, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. The kingdom has appointed HSBC, Standard Chartered, Emirates NBD and Al Rajhi Capital to manage the issuance. <\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/a> <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17,856<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +22.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD (CBE) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 30.83<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 30.96<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD at CIB <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Buy 30.85<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Sell 30.95<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates CBE <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19.25% deposit<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

20.25% lending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,546<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +10.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,880<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: -3.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,064<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +21.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,464<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +6.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,524<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2% (YTD: +1.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,321<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.4% (YTD: +13.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 86.81<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.77<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 1,946.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 29,403<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: +78.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

THE CLOSING BELL- <\/strong><\/p>\n

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at yesterday\u2019s close <\/strong> on turnover of EGP 1.78 bn (10.5% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net buyers. The index is up 22.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Ezz Steel (+5.7%), Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+4.2%), and Beltone Financial Holding (+3.9%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Orascom Development Egypt (-1.1%), Juhayna (-0.4%), and B Investments (-0.2%).<\/p>\n

Asian markets are starting the week in the red this morning <\/strong> as fears about a Chinese economic slowdown continue. Shares in the US and Europe are on course to fall at the opening bell.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emerging-market debt is sustaining its rally even as US yields continue to rise<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":599481,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7210],"tags":[115,72,8780,119,349,122,219],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-599480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","tag-saudi-arabia","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d1836526-0929-4900-bc84-7f72cfd6c04d","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/648.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"The treasury market is continuing to forecast a US recession","related_issue":[599457],"teaser":"Emerging-market debt is sustaining its rally even as US yields continue to rise","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2023\/8\/.3e56360d-cc00-4684-b06e-bd270862f3c2.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nThe treasury market is continuing to forecast a US recession - 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Conference Board\u2019s poll of 750 CEOs and other C-suite execs found that more than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596315,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/the-us-may-not-be-as-close-to-a-recession-as-the-yield-curve-suggests\/","url_meta":{"origin":599480,"position":2},"title":"The US may not be as close to a recession as the yield curve suggests","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The US is actually not as close to a recession as it seems, regardless of the chatter about the inverted yield curve: You know how everybody and their mother has been fretting over an impending recession in the US? It\u2019s actually \u201ca less than 50-50 proposition,\u201d Peter Coy writes for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth reading"","block_context":{"text":"Worth reading","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-reading\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/743.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577389,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/21\/investors-are-rediscovering-their-appetite-for-the-riskiest-emerging-market-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":599480,"position":3},"title":"Investors are rediscovering their appetite for the riskiest emerging-market debt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Investors are storming back into high-yield emerging-market debt, pushing down the risk premium over high-grade debt at the quickest rate since June 2005, according to JPMorgan data picked up by Bloomberg. 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