{"id":598992,"date":"2019-06-16T04:00:20","date_gmt":"2019-06-16T04:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/"},"modified":"2019-06-16T04:00:20","modified_gmt":"2019-06-16T04:00:20","slug":"are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/","title":{"rendered":"Are emerging markets looking set for a wave of interest rate cuts this month?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <b>Good news for Egyptian debt: Other emerging markets have lowered interest rates \u2014 and more should follow. <\/b>Russia, Chile and India have lowered their benchmark rates last week as emerging markets struggle with lower than expected growth and a turbulent macro climate. The hint from central bankers in other EMs is that they too will move to cut rates, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-06-14\/emerging-market-investors-prepare-for-fresh-wave-of-rate-cuts\">Davidson Santana writes for Bloomberg<\/a> in a piece that is surely good news for the continued competitiveness of Egyptian debt.<\/p>\n<p><b>Who else is looking to make cuts? <\/b>South Korea, Brazil and Turkey all seen as taking a move towards interest rate cuts in the short-term. In the medium-term, Santana expects Mexico and South Africa are likely to follow suit.<\/p>\n<p><b>Which central bank isn\u2019t likely to make rate cuts? Ours. <\/b>Before the release last week of May inflation figures \u2014 which showed <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/06\/11\/annual-inflation-increases-to-14-1-in-may\/\">annual headline inflation rising unexpectedly<\/a> to 14.1% from 13% in April \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/05\/20\/when-will-we-see-capex-spending-pick-up\/\">analysts we polled<\/a> saw our central bank leaving interest rates on hold until nearer the end of the year. The May inflation figures and the inflationary impact of energy subsidy cuts due by July (to say nothing of turbulence in global markets) have <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/06\/12\/what-were-tracking-on-12-june-2019\/\">analysts saying<\/a> it is highly unlikely that the CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will move to cut interest rates when it next meets on Thursday, 11 July.<\/p>\n<p><b>That will likely make it another lost year for capex spending: <\/b>With business paying credit-card levels of interest on facilities to fund new investment, don\u2019t expect a rush to borrow anytime soon. <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/06\/13\/businesses-eager-for-interest-rates-to-return-to-pre-float-levels-to-boost-investment\/\">Nine companies we spoke with last week<\/a> tell us that rates should be in the 10-13% range (vs c. 20% on corporate borrowing now) before we can see sustained capex and consumer demand pick up. Most are waiting for rates to go down (and \/ or for factory utilization to pick up on the back of rising consumer demand) before they borrow.<\/p>\n<p><b>EM analysts are looking to the Fed this Tuesday and Wednesday: <\/b>As emerging markets look to stimulate their economies with rate cuts, their eyes will turn to the US Federal Open Market Committee, which will meet this Tuesday and Wednesday to review interest rates. The US Fed\u2019s decision this week will have a critical impact on how carry traders see local EM currencies.<\/p>\n<p><b>Which would mean what for the EGP?<\/b> The carry trade has played a part in the appreciation seen by the EGP this year. A rate cut by the Fed could offset any strengthening of the USD against local currencies. This plays into projections by <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/06\/11\/the-question-on-everyones-lips-where-is-the-egp-heading\/\">analysts we spoke with last week<\/a> that see a gradual depreciation in the EGP towards the end of the year, depending on seasonal changes and inflows.<\/p>\n<p><b>We\u2019ll know more on inflows when the CBE releases the balance of payments report for 3Q2018-19<\/b>, which we expect to later this month, especially as CAPMAS has already released trade figures for the quarter<a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/06\/13\/egypts-trade-deficit-shrinks-7-8-y-o-y-in-1q2019-reuters\/\">last week<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good news for Egyptian debt: Other emerging markets have lowered interest rates \u2014 and more should follow. Russia, Chile and India have lowered their benchmark rates last week as emerging markets struggle with lower than expected growth and a turbulent macro climate. The hint from central bankers in other EMs is that they too will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":598993,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[115,72,349,2380,388],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-598992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-speed-round","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7cd6ce1a-930b-4469-b8cc-51bfd95a4546","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1152.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[598987],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Are emerging markets looking set for a wave of interest rate cuts this month? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are emerging markets looking set for a wave of interest rate cuts this month?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good news for Egyptian debt: Other emerging markets have lowered interest rates \u2014 and more should follow. Russia, Chile and India have lowered their benchmark rates last week as emerging markets struggle with lower than expected growth and a turbulent macro climate. The hint from central bankers in other EMs is that they too will [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-06-16T04:00:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1152.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Are emerging markets looking set for a wave of interest rate cuts this month?\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-06-16T04:00:20+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/\"},\"wordCount\":495,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1152.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"emerging markets\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"interest rates\",\"SPEED ROUND\",\"US Federal Reserve\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/\",\"name\":\"Are emerging markets looking set for a wave of interest rate cuts this month? 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2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE could cut key interest rates this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could finally cut benchmark interest rates by between 50-100 bps when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to six out of eight economists polled by Enterprise. Easing inflation, coupled with the US\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598424,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/26\/egypts-central-bank-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":598992,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s central bank keeps interest rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"With one eye on inflation, the central bank leaves interest rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with analyst expectations. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively, and also left\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563119,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/20\/cbe-holds-interest-rates-for-fifth-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":598992,"position":3},"title":"CBE holds interest rates for fifth consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting on Thursday as it looks to preempt a possible rise in inflation on the back of spiraling global commodity prices. Overnight deposit and lending rates remain at 8.25% and 9.25% respectively, while\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/248.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558374,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/08\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold-for-sixth-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":598992,"position":4},"title":"CBE leaves interest rates on hold for sixth consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged for a sixth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers look to preempt rising inflation and maintain Egypt\u2019s high real interest rate. Overnight deposit and lending rates were kept unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, respectively, while the main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/110.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596162,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/20\/egypt-to-issue-callable-bonds-amid-expectations-of-interest-rate-cuts\/","url_meta":{"origin":598992,"position":5},"title":"Egypt to issue callable bonds amid expectations of interest rate cuts","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- FinMin looking to issue callable bonds amid expectations of interest rate cuts: The Finance Ministry has begun amending its plans for its upcoming bond issuances to include the sale of callable local bonds as a means of hedging against fluctuating interest rates, two government sources tell Enterprise. The ministry\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/773.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598992","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598992"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598992\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/598987"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598993"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598992"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598992"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598992"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=598992"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=598992"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}