{"id":598869,"date":"2019-06-11T04:00:21","date_gmt":"2019-06-11T04:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/11\/the-question-on-everyones-lips-where-is-the-egp-heading\/"},"modified":"2019-06-11T04:00:21","modified_gmt":"2019-06-11T04:00:21","slug":"the-question-on-everyones-lips-where-is-the-egp-heading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/11\/the-question-on-everyones-lips-where-is-the-egp-heading\/","title":{"rendered":"The question on everyone\u2019s lips: Where is the EGP heading?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> ANALYSIS- The question on everyone\u2019s lips as we ponder the kickoff of budget season at most companies after the summer break: Where is the EGP heading?<\/b> The EGP has been on a good run this year, appreciating by about 7% YTD against the USD to 16.7917. But this isn\u2019t set to last: analysts polled by Enterprise predict that a period of depreciation will set in later this year, although few are speculating on a specific FX rate at the moment.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a matter of seasonality, says Mohamed Abu Basha<\/b>, head of macroeconomic analysis at EFG Hermes. \u201cWe might see some additional appreciation in the coming months due to seasonal conditions of low demand during the summer. But seasonality won\u2019t be as supportive to the EGP in 4Q when demand for FX typically picks up ahead of the new year and when foreign investors look to repatriate profits,\u201d he noted. He said the appreciation in the past couple of months was backed by low demand for FX rather than foreign inflows into debt.<\/p>\n

Have we hit peak EGP?<\/b> HC\u2019s Sara Saada thinks the EGP's rise has peaked at both the carry trade and remittance levels. The EGP should stabilize for a while before it begins to gradually depreciate by the end of the year \u2014 \u201cespecially if there is an easing in interest rates that would spark profit-taking by investors.\u201d<\/p>\n

How far could the pound fall later this year?<\/b> Barring a dramatic pick-up in external headwinds, FX volatility should remain low and any EGP depreciation will occur at a gradual rate. Pharos\u2019 Head of Research Radwa Elswaify told us that we can expect the EGP\/USD rate to hover between 16.50 and 17.50 through the end of 2019 depending on inflows and appetite for Egyptian debt.<\/p>\n

Could we go back down to EGP 18 per USD? <\/b>Capital Economics has predicted that the EGP will fall by around 7% to EGP 18 by the end of 2019. Higher-than-expected inflation in some of Egypt\u2019s key trading partners will increase the likelihood of a devaluation to maintain the currency\u2019s competitiveness.<\/p>\n

This was not so far off from what analysts were saying a few months ago: <\/b>EFG Hermes said in March that the EGP would hover between 17.45 and 18.00 to the greenback throughout the year, taking into consideration that the attractiveness of the EGP carry trade will diminish if the currency appreciates by more than 4-5%. The firm had predicted that the currency would stabilize at 17.10 in the short term with increased volatility in 2H19 when investors are more likely to repatriate profits. Shuaa Securities Egypt, meanwhile, said last month<\/a> that the currency could slide back to the high EGP 17 range after the government makes further cuts to fuel and electricity subsidies next month.<\/p>\n

Why has the EGP been appreciating?<\/b> Some analysts<\/a> have cited increased inflows from portfolio investors as the main reason for the appreciation in addition to a reduced imports bill and increased tourism receipts. Shuaa points to many of the same factors<\/a>. Unnamed bankers speaking to Reuters<\/a> earlier this year speculated about whether the CBE was manipulating the currency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ANALYSIS- The question on everyone\u2019s lips as we ponder the kickoff of budget season at most companies after the summer break: Where is the EGP heading? The EGP has been on a good run this year, appreciating by about 7% YTD against the USD to 16.7917. But this isn\u2019t set to last: analysts polled by […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":598870,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[84,1419,72,1666,2234,10259,1116,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-598869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-efg-hermes","tag-egp","tag-enterpriseam","tag-exchange-rate","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-hc","tag-shuaa-securities","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"36c97dbc-5a37-49c8-b92f-95373e188a4e","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"b0a0a137-232b-43b4-b7b7-7bf380fa1541","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/4\/EGP-USD-1600px.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[598860],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nThe question on everyone\u2019s lips: Where is the EGP heading? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/11\/the-question-on-everyones-lips-where-is-the-egp-heading\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The question on everyone\u2019s lips: Where is the EGP heading?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ANALYSIS- The question on everyone\u2019s lips as we ponder the kickoff of budget season at most companies after the summer break: Where is the EGP heading? 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Revenues also increased by 184% y-o-y to EGP 834 mn. CEO Karim Awad. \u201cThe final months of 2017 will see us make important headway in our strategic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":600746,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/10\/efg-hermes-ibnsina-pharma-poised-to-capitalize-on-rising-demand\/","url_meta":{"origin":598869,"position":1},"title":"EFG Hermes: Ibnsina Pharma poised to \u201ccapitalize on rising demand\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Ibnsina Pharma poised to \u201ccapitalize on rising demand\u201d -EFG Hermes: Leading frontier and emerging markets investment bank EFG Hermes has initiated coverage on IbnsinaPharma, which it characterizes as \u201cwell-positioned to capture Egypt\u2019s rising \u2026 demand and continue outperforming the market.\u201d EFG Hermes has a \u201cBuy\u201d on Ibnsina with a target\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":637891,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/11\/28\/efg-hermes-sawiris-foundation-agree-to-launch-egp-53-mn-development-plan-for-two-luxor-villages\/","url_meta":{"origin":598869,"position":2},"title":"EFG Hermes, Sawiris foundation agree to launch EGP 53 mn development plan for two Luxor villages","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 November 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"EFG Hermes, Sawiris Foundation commit north of EGP 50 mn to rebuild two Luxor villages: EFG Hermes signed an agreement with the Sawiris Foundation for Social Development yesterday, under which it plans to launch a EGP 53 mn comprehensive development plan for two Luxor villages, according to a press statement.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":603355,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/04\/21\/egp-continues-strengthening-against-usd\/","url_meta":{"origin":598869,"position":3},"title":"EGP continues strengthening against USD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EGP continues to strengthen against the USD: The EGP has extended its 11-week rally against the greenback, gaining another EGP 0.11 in the past week, according to central bank data. The exchange rate hit EGP 17.25 to the USD on Thursday, the strongest showing for the EGP since March 2017.Look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/4\/EGP-USD-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":650611,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/03\/28\/earnings-watch-gb-auto-efg-hermes-release-4q-fy2016-results\/","url_meta":{"origin":598869,"position":4},"title":"Earnings watch: GB Auto, EFG Hermes release 4Q\/FY2016 results","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 March 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"EARNINGS WATCH - GB Auto reported a net loss of EGP 865.7 mn in 2016, compared with a netprofit of EGP 233.1 mn in 2015, the company said in its earnings filing. The primarily non-cash loss came despite 24.6% y-o-y growth in revenues to EGP 15.3 bn as the company\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":621746,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/18\/efg-hermes-sees-3q2018-revenues-surpass-egp-1-bn\/","url_meta":{"origin":598869,"position":5},"title":"EFG Hermes sees 3Q2018 revenues surpass EGP 1 bn","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"EARNINGS WATCH- Regional financial services corporation EFG Hermes reported a net profit after tax and minority interest of EGP 279 mn in 3Q2018, up 18% y-o-y, the company said in a statement on Thursday. The group\u2019s net revenues reached EGP 1.03 bn for the quarter, up 24% y-o-y over the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598869"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598869\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/598860"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598870"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598869"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=598869"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=598869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}