{"id":598252,"date":"2019-05-20T04:03:47","date_gmt":"2019-05-20T04:03:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/20\/when-will-we-see-capex-spending-pick-up\/"},"modified":"2019-05-20T04:03:47","modified_gmt":"2019-05-20T04:03:47","slug":"when-will-we-see-capex-spending-pick-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/20\/when-will-we-see-capex-spending-pick-up\/","title":{"rendered":"When will we see capex spending pick up?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> EXCLUSIVE- With interest rates likely to be left on hold this week, don\u2019t expect a pickup in capex spending this year. <\/b>The central bank\u2019s 100 bps cut in February<\/a> was a step in the right direction, but was nowhere near enough to spur capex spending by a business community stuck in a high interest rate environment since late 2016. The business community (pdf)<\/a> and 12 top analysts in our recent rate poll (pdf)<\/a> all see the CBE as unlikely to resume cutting before the end of the year.<\/p>\n

Still too soon to see a capex lending uptick:<\/b> \u201cIt is still too early; for business borrowing to pick up we need at least a 1% or 2% cut so we can start to see this happen,\u201dsaid Allen Sandeep, head of research at Naeem Brokerage. \u201cAnd when it happens, it will be gradual because there are other factors for businesses to consider, like the coming elevation of fuel subsidies, which will impact demand that is already slow. I expect business activity to be slow-growing until the end of 2019.\u201d<\/p>\n

It will take significant cuts to encourage a sustained capex lending cycle:<\/b> \u201cWe believe it won\u2019t be before further meaningful cuts in interest rates for lending activity to show significant growth again,\u201d said Monsef Morsy, co-head of research at CI Capital. \u201cThis would give the market an indication that we have passed the current bottleneck period and that we have a direction and continuation, and thus erase concerns over volatility,\u201d Morsy said.<\/p>\n

Utilization levels across the board need to rise as well:<\/b> \u201cWe don\u2019t expect capex lending to significantly rise this year, but what we would see is a pick-up in working capital lending,\u201d Morsy added. Many plants aren\u2019t at 100% utilization and won\u2019t think about expansion until they get closer, he said. \u201cHowever, we can see maintenance capex lending because a lot of companies have been underspending on capex since 2011,\u201d<\/p>\n

So is it right to leave rates on hold in anticipation of an inflationary bump? No, says <\/b>Sandeep.<\/b> \u201cEgypt still has a big trade deficit because imports are high and there is little import substitution. Business needs to pick up to fill in this gap, but the high interest rates and opportunity cost for foreign and local investors is still a barrier and that\u2019s why non-oil FDI is still low. Cutting interest rates will encourage more investment<\/b>, which will help bridge this gap,\u201d Sandeep said. \u201cThe government\u2019s reforms have built a good base for businesses; now easing the monetary cycle is the awaited step to conclude this reform program. It is a gradual process that takes time.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EXCLUSIVE- With interest rates likely to be left on hold this week, don\u2019t expect a pickup in capex spending this year. The central bank\u2019s 100 bps cut in February was a step in the right direction, but was nowhere near enough to spur capex spending by a business community stuck in a high interest rate […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":598253,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,72,349,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-598252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"78ec8a49-f88d-40de-9b99-186c8010b5a3","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2017\/3\/395.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[598247],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhen will we see capex spending pick up? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/20\/when-will-we-see-capex-spending-pick-up\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When will we see capex spending pick up?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"EXCLUSIVE- With interest rates likely to be left on hold this week, don\u2019t expect a pickup in capex spending this year. 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Inflation rose unexpectedly in May, and turmoil in global markets makes it imperative Egypt remain attractive to the carry trade. Together, those factors mean sky-high interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1967.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602514,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/31\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":598252,"position":1},"title":"Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Central Bank of Egypt surprises as it leaves interest rates unchanged: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, going against expectations that it would cut rates by as much as 100 bps. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595676,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/04\/egypts-economic-conditions-could-allow-cbe-to-accelerate-easing-cycle-hc-securities\/","url_meta":{"origin":598252,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economic conditions could allow CBE to accelerate easing cycle -HC Securities","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economic conditions could allow CBE to accelerate easing cycle, fully reverse monetary tightening by 2020 -HC Securities: Improving economic conditions and the anticipated cool-down of inflation once the full effect of fuel subsidy cuts wear off should give the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) enough breathing room to begin\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598992,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/16\/are-emerging-markets-looking-set-for-a-wave-of-interest-rate-cuts-this-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":598252,"position":3},"title":"Are emerging markets looking set for a wave of interest rate cuts this month?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Good news for Egyptian debt: Other emerging markets have lowered interest rates \u2014 and more should follow. 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The move is one of many Etisalat is exploring to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":646643,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/06\/20\/agriculture-companies-holding-back-on-capex-amid-high-interest-rates\/","url_meta":{"origin":598252,"position":5},"title":"Agriculture companies holding back on capex amid high interest rates","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 June 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Until rates do come down, some business owners are feeling the pinch and are thinking twice about new investment, say players in the agriculture sector speaking with Al Bora. 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