{"id":598128,"date":"2019-05-15T03:41:19","date_gmt":"2019-05-15T03:41:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/"},"modified":"2019-05-15T03:41:19","modified_gmt":"2019-05-15T03:41:19","slug":"sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s post-IMF landscape during Q&A"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> EXCLUSIVE- S&P\u2019s two cents on Egypt\u2019s post-IMF landscape: <\/b>Egypt has begun to see the \u201csmall green shoots of recovery\u201d but serious risks remain to the government\u2019s fiscal stability, Zahabia Gupta, S&P Global\u2019s associate director of sovereign ratings, said during a Q&A with investors this week. The situation in Egypt is \u201cgradually improving\u201d as it approaches the end of its IMF program, she said, citing the government\u2019s falling current account deficit, rising gas production, a recovery in tourism, and stabilizing remittances. But the country\u2019s fiscal position remains \u201cvery weak\u201d and substantial debt service costs present challenges. Key takeaways from the Q&A:<\/b><\/p>\n

Egypt is unlikely to receive more funding from the IMF<\/b> because they would struggle to meet the tighter conditions on debt sustainability. Having said that, S&P does not see the need for Egypt to return to the fund for post-program funding given its improved liquidity position. Further IMF assistance is more likely to take the form of a policy coordination instrument<\/b> \u2014 a non-financing tool designed to improve the government\u2019s credibility in its commitment to reform. The IMF will also monitor the government\u2019s progress twice a year after the end of the program.<\/p>\n

\u201cReal interest rates remain a risk to Egypt\u2019s debt sustainability,\u201d<\/b> Gupta said, highlighting the fact that under the central bank\u2019s current easing strategy, the interest cost will remain high for a significant period. Strong market demand for the country\u2019s foreign currency-denominated debt helps it manage nominal interest, while at the same time raising its exposure to fluctuations in the exchange rate.<\/p>\n

S&P believes Egypt\u2019s current FX levels provide sufficient liquidity<\/b> to cover around five and a half months of current account payments for the next two years. There remain risks that portfolio flows could rapidly leave the country, but the CBE\u2019s ring-fenced foreign assets could mitigate some of the impact on the country\u2019s reserves and exchange rate. The ratings agency expects reserves to dip only slightly over the coming three years.<\/p>\n

Foreign direct investment into productive areas of the economy has \u201cdisappointed\u201d despite the competitive exchange rate,<\/b> Gupta said. FDI has over the past few years gone primarily into the energy sector, which creates few jobs for Egypt\u2019s increasing population. The government is responding to the problem by increasing subsidies for exporters.<\/p>\n

Remittances don\u2019t pose a significant risk to Egypt\u2019s balance of payments:<\/b> Although some inflows may exit the country as interest rates slowly decline, the bulk of remittances come from Egyptians living abroad and will likely remain stable over the coming years.<\/p>\n

What are the chances of a credit upgrade?<\/b> Slim, in the near term. \u201cWe do not see the possibility of an upgrade in the near future,\u201d Gupta said, citing the government\u2019s weak fiscal position and the lengthy time period it takes to complete its structural overhaul of the public sector.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EXCLUSIVE- S&P\u2019s two cents on Egypt\u2019s post-IMF landscape: Egypt has begun to see the \u201csmall green shoots of recovery\u201d but serious risks remain to the government\u2019s fiscal stability, Zahabia Gupta, S&P Global\u2019s associate director of sovereign ratings, said during a Q&A with investors this week. The situation in Egypt is \u201cgradually improving\u201d as it approaches […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":598129,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[104,72,103,1318,655,272,349,1653,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-598128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fdi","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-imf","tag-interest-rates","tag-sp","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"13023ae6-0ab6-4e5e-97b1-7a35856c6ae2","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"5b814281-a279-49e5-8824-73f311d02e84","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/903.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[598114],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nS&P gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s post-IMF landscape during Q&A - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s post-IMF landscape during Q&A\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"EXCLUSIVE- S&P\u2019s two cents on Egypt\u2019s post-IMF landscape: Egypt has begun to see the \u201csmall green shoots of recovery\u201d but serious risks remain to the government\u2019s fiscal stability, Zahabia Gupta, S&P Global\u2019s associate director of sovereign ratings, said during a Q&A with investors this week. 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The situation in Egypt is \u201cgradually improving\u201d as it approaches […]","og_url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/","og_site_name":"EnterpriseAM Egypt","article_published_time":"2019-05-15T03:41:19+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/903.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"enterpriseam admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"enterpriseam admin","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/"},"author":{"name":"enterpriseam admin","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d"},"headline":"S&P gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s post-IMF landscape during Q&A","datePublished":"2019-05-15T03:41:19+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/"},"wordCount":503,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/903.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","keywords":["economy","EnterpriseAM","FDI","fiscal policy","foreign reserves","IMF","interest rates","S&P","SPEED ROUND"],"articleSection":["Speed Round"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/","url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/15\/sp-gives-its-two-cents-on-egypts-post-imf-landscape-during-qa\/","name":"S&P gives its two cents on Egypt\u2019s post-IMF landscape during Q&A - 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Though fiscal indicators have weakened slightly from the last outlook in April (pdf), the fund is now predicting a rapid recovery over the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/164.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571680,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/20\/egypts-economic-recovery-post-covid-will-likely-be-u-shaped-el-said-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":598128,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economic recovery post-covid will likely be U-shaped, El Said says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economic recovery post-covid is most likely to be U-shaped, rather than V- or W-shaped, Planning and Economic Development Minister Hala El Said said during a webinar hosted yesterday by our friends at AmCham. El Said reiterated that the government has prepared multiple scenarios for the country\u2019s economic outlook over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/217.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566826,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/15\/you-win-some\/","url_meta":{"origin":598128,"position":2},"title":"You win some\u2026","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF expects Egypt\u2019s economy to \u201crebound strongly\u201d in FY2021-2022, with GDP coming in at 5.2%, according to a statement last night in which the institution praised Egypt\u2019s covid-19 policies (and gave itself a pat on the back for the assist). \u201cAs a result of the government\u2019s swift and prudent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":634969,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/01\/30\/imf-not-worries-about-impact-of-higher-oil-prices-on-egypts-fiscal-reforms\/","url_meta":{"origin":598128,"position":3},"title":"IMF not worries about impact of higher oil prices on Egypt\u2019s fiscal reforms","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"30 January 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF isn\u2019t overly concerned about the impact of higher oil prices on Egypt\u2019s fiscal reforms, according to IMF's Middle East & Central Asia Department Director Jihad Azour. In an interview with Al Shorouk on the sidelines of the IMF\u2019s economic conference in Morocco, Azour said fiscal imbalances which could\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570873,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/21\/sp-affirms-egypts-sovereign-credit-rating-at-b-outlook-at-stable-despite-covid-19-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":598128,"position":4},"title":"S&P affirms Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating at B, outlook at stable, despite covid-19 crisis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P maintains Egypt\u2019s B credit rating with stable outlook despite covid-19 crisis: S&P Global Ratings has maintained Egypt\u2019s B credit rating and its outlook at stable despite forecasting a \u201csharp decline\u201d in economic activity due to the covid-19 pandemic. \u201cThe stable outlook reflects our expectation that the fall in Egypt\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/164.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562487,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/26\/imf-gives-initial-approval-for-final-tranche-of-usd-5-2-bn-standby-loan\/","url_meta":{"origin":598128,"position":5},"title":"IMF gives initial approval for final tranche of USD 5.2 bn standby loan","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt expects to unlock the third and final USD 1.6 bn tranche of its USD 5.2 bn IMF standby loan after reaching a staff-level agreement with the fund, the IMF said in a statement. An IMF delegation was (virtually) in townover the past two weeks for the second review of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/229.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=598128"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/598128\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/598114"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/598129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=598128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=598128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=598128"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=598128"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=598128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}