{"id":598031,"date":"2019-05-13T03:54:17","date_gmt":"2019-05-13T03:54:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/13\/what-were-tracking-on-13-may-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-05-13T03:54:17","modified_gmt":"2019-05-13T03:54:17","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-13-may-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/13\/what-were-tracking-on-13-may-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 13 May 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Week one of Ramadan is now over<\/b>, ladies and gentlemen.<\/p>\n

Look for amendments to the mineral resources act to go to the House of Representatives today. <\/b>We have the full rundown in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below.<\/p>\n

Did the <\/b>unexpected cooling-off of inflation<\/b><\/a> in April give the central bank room to cut interest rates<\/b> when it meets a week from Thursday? That\u2019s what Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh suggests in a report (pdf)<\/a> out yesterday. \u201cFavorable global conditions, with the ease in monetary tightening, will continue to provide the buffer for the CBE to resume its monetary easing [in May]. Meanwhile, the most likely scenario for us will remain a 100 bps cut in rates by the end of the year, accounting for the expected inflationary repercussions of the wider implementation of the fuel indexation mechanism.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/a> Market watchers are paying close attention to the opening bell in Europe and the US of A today <\/b>as traders try to get their heads around what\u2019s in store for global equities after recent events including the sudden heating up of the US-China trade war. Asian shares are <\/b>edging lower<\/b><\/a>this morning and futures suggest<\/a> the S&P will open <\/b>200 points lower<\/b><\/a> in New York this afternoon.<\/p>\n

The result? Early signs this morning that traders are scrambling for safe havens<\/b><\/a>.<\/p>\n

All of this is bad news for emerging markets\u2026 <\/b>\u201cThe standoff between the U.S. and China is back at the top of emerging-market investor concerns as they assess how far they should price in a full-blown trade war,\u201d Bloomberg<\/a> suggests<\/p>\n

\u2026but good news for our future robot overlords: <\/b>There are concerns that \u201ccomputer driven funds [that] amassed big equity positions while markets were sleepy\u201d could suddenly be \u201cscrambling to sell their stocks and move into safer assets like treasuries\u201d now that market volatility appears to be back on the menu, the Wall Street Journal<\/a> warns.<\/p>\n

You know who\u2019s looking particularly prescient right now? Deutsche Bank<\/b>, which warned at the end of 2018 that an algorithm-driven fire sale in equities and credit<\/a> would be the biggest risk to global markets this year.<\/p>\n

How bad could it get? <\/b>JPMorgan has previously suggested that there are some USD 7.4 tn in stocks that would be \u201csubject to forced selling<\/a> by passive funds during the next downturn.\u201d<\/p>\n

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In our diary for the rest of the week:<\/p>\n