{"id":597658,"date":"2023-08-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/13\/inflation-hits-new-record-high-in-july-but-cools-slightly-month-on-month\/"},"modified":"2023-08-13T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2023-08-13T00:00:00","slug":"inflation-hits-new-record-high-in-july-but-cools-slightly-month-on-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/08\/13\/inflation-hits-new-record-high-in-july-but-cools-slightly-month-on-month\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation hits new record high in July, but cools slightly month-on-month"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflation accelerated at a record pace for the second month running in July <\/strong>, as surging food costs and the impact of a series of devaluations maintained upward pressure on prices. The annual urban rate of inflation inched up to 36.5% y-o-y during the month from 35.7% in June<\/a>, according to figures released on Thursday by state statistics agency Capmas. <\/p>\n

On a monthly basis, inflation slowed for a second consecutive month <\/strong>, coming in at 1.9% from against 2.1% in June.<\/p>\n

Food remains the pain point: <\/strong> Food and beverage prices \u2014 the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate inflation \u2014 rose 68.4% y-o-y in July, faster than the 65.9% rate the month before. <\/p>\n

Analysts predicted this: <\/strong> HC Securities\u2019 Heba Mounir had forecast inflation to rise to 36.6%<\/a> y-o-y<\/a>, while Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston was expecting inflation of 36.7%<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Core inflation remains elevated: <\/strong>Core inflation \u2014 which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel \u2014 dipped to 40.7% y-o-y in July from June\u2019s record high of 41%, according to central bank data<\/a>. Monthly core inflation fell to 1.3% in July from 1.7% in June. The central bank will publish its monthly note pointing at the causes behind the July inflation reading on 15 August.<\/p>\n

A new commodities crunch? <\/strong>Hikes in the prices of commodities including tobacco and sugar were among the key drivers of inflation in July. Global factors \u2014 including the negative impact of El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s hotter weather on sugar crops \u2014 were exacerbated by ongoing import difficulties and stockpiling by some traders, economic analyst Hany Geneina told Enterprise. The end of the Black Sea grain pact between Russia and Ukraine, and India\u2019s decision to ban exports of non-basmati white rice, are expected to put pressure on local wheat and rice markets in the months to come, S&P Global\u2019s Yasmine Ghozzi said in a LinkedIn post<\/a>. <\/p>\n

LOOKING AHEAD- <\/strong><\/p>\n

All eyes are still on the exchange rate: <\/strong>Some analysts expect the EGP will weaken this fall \u2014 a development that could drive inflation still higher. S&P Global is predicting an FX adjustment in September or October in tandem with the delayed IMF review<\/a> of our USD 3 bn loan program. The financial services firm sees the EGP ending the year at 37 to the USD.<\/p>\n

Price hikes to peak in 4Q? <\/strong>The expected further devaluation, \u201ccoupled with the expected<\/a> electricity tariff hikes<\/a> that the government has been pushing back,\u201d means inflation will likely \u201ccontinue its upward trajectory to peak in October,\u201d said economist Mona Bedeir. S&P Global\u2019s Ghozzi is also predicting a peak of \u201cclose to 39%\u201d y-o-y in October, \u201cending the year at close to 35% in 2023 and 20% in 2024.\u201d Geneina is forecasting price hikes to peak at around 45% annually by the end of this year, while banking veteran Hany Aboul Fotouh also thinks inflation won\u2019t start to come down until 1Q 2024.<\/p>\n

Pundits don\u2019t see inflation disappearing after 4Q: <\/strong>Look for it to remain north of 30% next year after averaging 24.4% in 2023, the IMF said<\/a> last month.<\/p>\n

Where are interest rates headed next? <\/strong> Following its surprise 100-bps interest rate hike<\/a> last week, the central bank will hike rates by another 200 bps before the end of 2023 in a bid to curb inflation, both Ghozzi and Geneina predict. The central bank has now hiked rates by 11% since March 2022 and is still targeting inflation of 7% (+\/- 2 percentage points) on average by 4Q 2024.<\/p>\n

The story got international coverage: <\/strong>Reuters<\/a> | Associated Press<\/a> | Bloomberg<\/a> | Forbes<\/a> Middle Eas<\/a> t<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Food prices were almost 70% higher compared with a year ago<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":597659,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[330,271,104,72,2234,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-597658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-capmas","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c9775147-75a5-4479-8f40-f4631fd233be","order":"0","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2023\/8\/537.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Egyptian 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Consumer prices in urban areas rose 13.6% y-o-y in July, up from 13.2% in June when prices unexpectedly cooled\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/8\/216.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547161,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/12\/inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis\/","url_meta":{"origin":597658,"position":4},"title":"Inflation hits 13.5% in May but slowed on an m-o-m basis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but came in lower than expected and even slowed down on a monthly basis. Annual urban inflation rose to 13.5% last month from 13.1% in Aprilas rising global commodity prices and the EGP devaluation pushed consumer prices upwards for a sixth consecutive\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/223.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557230,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/inflation-continues-upwards-trend-in-august-hitting-5-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":597658,"position":5},"title":"Inflation continues upwards trend in August, hitting 5.7%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in nine months in August on the back of rising food, fuel and transportation costs, according to figures released on Thursday. Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597658","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=597658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597658\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/597653"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/597659"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=597658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=597658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=597658"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=597658"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=597658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}