{"id":597497,"date":"2019-07-29T03:49:47","date_gmt":"2019-07-29T03:49:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/29\/egypts-current-account-deficit-to-continue-to-widen-as-trade-balance-deteriorates-fitch\/"},"modified":"2019-07-29T03:49:47","modified_gmt":"2019-07-29T03:49:47","slug":"egypts-current-account-deficit-to-continue-to-widen-as-trade-balance-deteriorates-fitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/29\/egypts-current-account-deficit-to-continue-to-widen-as-trade-balance-deteriorates-fitch\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s current account deficit to continue to widen as trade balance deteriorates -Fitch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a id=\"tldr-story-04\" class=\"content-anchor\"><\/a> <b>We may be close to finishing the IMF program, but our trade balance isn\u2019t looking much better:<\/b> Egypt\u2019s current account deficit will continue to widen over the coming quarters as the country\u2019s trade balance deteriorates, Fitch Solutions says in a new report. The report forecasts the deficit increasing to 2.8% of GDP in FY2019-2020 from 2.5% last year due to stalling export growth and rising imports. The current account deficit narrowed significantly between 2016 and 2018 as remittances increased and tourism revenues recovered. However over the past year it has widened rapidly, increasing from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbe.org.eg\/_layouts\/15\/WopiFrame.aspx?sourcedoc=%7BC1CF722B-D4CD-4A69-A150-DC0762B9AEFE%7D&file=BOP_Quarter%20_2017_2018.xlsx&action=default\">USD 493 mn<\/a> in 4Q2017-2018 to <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/07\/07\/egypts-current-account-deficit-almost-doubles-in-3q2018-2019\/\">USD 3.75 bn<\/a> in 3Q2018-2019.<\/p>\n<p><b>Oil and gas production growth won\u2019t continue at its current rate:<\/b> Fitch\u2019s oil and gas team expect production growth to fall sharply in 2020 to 6.6% from 16.4% in 2019. This isn\u2019t great news considering the centrality of hydrocarbons to exports over the past few years, and attract the bulk of the country\u2019s FDI.<\/p>\n<p><b>Fitch sees the EGP continuing to strengthen during 2H2019<\/b>, placing extra pressure on non-oil exports which grew at a meager 0.3% y-o-y in 1Q2019. The EGP has continued to gain against the greenback in 2019, rising more than 9% since the start of the year.<\/p>\n<p><b>We\u2019re lessening our dependency on imported fuel, but this is \u201cfar from enough.\u201d<\/b> Booming domestic gas production and the fuel subsidy cuts have reduced the fuel bill, but reliance on other imported goods means that this will have only a limited impact on the trade deficit. Fitch expects import growth to remain \u201crelatively strong\u201d in the short term, given the long-term process of improving domestic supply.<\/p>\n<p><b>Tourism and remittance inflows will continue to increase in the coming quarters<\/b>, helping to mitigate the effects of the poor trade balance. Stronger GDP growth in the Gulf will provide a boost to remittances, while tourism will continue its recovery albeit with a slower revenue growth.<\/p>\n<p><b>Anemic FDI means plenty of debt financing is still on the menu:<\/b> Net FDI inflows have barely moved since the government began its economic reform program two-and-a-half years ago, and remain small. Non-oil inflows fell to <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/07\/07\/egypts-current-account-deficit-almost-doubles-in-3q2018-2019\/\">five-year lows<\/a> of USD 400 mn in 1Q2019. \u201cWe expect [current account] shortfalls will continue to be funded by debt, given that foreign companies still seem too unsure about Egypt\u2019s reform trajectory to commit money as direct investments,\u201d Fitch says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We may be close to finishing the IMF program, but our trade balance isn\u2019t looking much better: Egypt\u2019s current account deficit will continue to widen over the coming quarters as the country\u2019s trade balance deteriorates, Fitch Solutions says in a new report. The report forecasts the deficit increasing to 2.8% of GDP in FY2019-2020 from [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":597498,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[7038,380,7039,7106,104,1419,93,72,103,8565,272,125,91,2396,2380,238],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-597497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-balance-of-payments","tag-currencies","tag-current-account","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-egp","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fdi","tag-fitch","tag-imf","tag-investment-watch","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-remittances","tag-speed-round","tag-tourism","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6db3cb7c-6550-4e1c-ab6f-72cee320503a","is_powered_by":true,"section_story_id":"633f151e-c02c-4eab-8cf6-ce76f57c4d70","story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/2220.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[597486],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Egypt\u2019s current account deficit to continue to widen as trade balance deteriorates -Fitch - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/29\/egypts-current-account-deficit-to-continue-to-widen-as-trade-balance-deteriorates-fitch\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s current account deficit to continue to widen as trade balance deteriorates -Fitch\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We may be close to finishing the IMF program, but our trade balance isn\u2019t looking much better: Egypt\u2019s current account deficit will continue to widen over the coming quarters as the country\u2019s trade balance deteriorates, Fitch Solutions says in a new report. 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Rising imports and a dip in remittances caused the current account to fall further into the red, despite the oil balance turning a surplus\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/2059.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593361,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/26\/fitch-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-with-a-stable-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":597497,"position":1},"title":"Fitch affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+ with a stable outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The agency said that Egypt\u2019s rating affirmation is supported by \u201ca recent track record of economic and fiscal reforms, and improvements to macroeconomic stability and external finances.\u201d On the flipside, Egypt\u2019s \u201cstill large fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/178.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576060,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/09\/egyptian-economy-to-grow-4-on-average-each-year-until-2024-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":597497,"position":2},"title":"Egyptian economy to grow 4% on average each year until 2024 -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is on track to grow at an average 4% clip over each of the coming four years, which would give it the MENA region\u2019s highest real GDP growth rate between 2020 and 2024, according to Fitch Solutions\u2019 monthly MENA outlook picked up by Ahram Online. The research firm echoed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/87.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561793,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/21\/egypts-economy-to-grow-3-1-this-fiscal-year-says-bnp-paribas\/","url_meta":{"origin":597497,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 3.1% this fiscal year, says BNP Paribas","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 3.1% clip in the government\u2019s current 2020-2021 fiscal year, down from 3.8% in the previous fiscal year, on the back of declining tourism revenues at the outset of the pandemic, BNP Paribas said in a recent economic research report (pdf). Fiscal support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/213.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":579369,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/05\/current-account-deficit-narrows-20-in-1q-2022-23\/","url_meta":{"origin":597497,"position":4},"title":"Current account deficit narrows 20% in 1Q 2022-23","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Higher FDI, exports and tourism revenues are easing balance of payments pressures.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/68.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":577097,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/11\/09\/fitch-cuts-outlook-on-egypt-to-negative-affirms-b-rating\/","url_meta":{"origin":597497,"position":5},"title":"Fitch cuts outlook on Egypt to negative, affirms B+ rating","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 November 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has cut its outlook on Egyptian debt from \u201cstable\u201d to \u201cnegative\u201d due to \u201cdeterioration\u201d in the country\u2019s external liquidity position, it said yesterday. The rating agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B+ rating on robust economic growth and \u201cstrong international support\u201d from Gulf allies and multilateral partners but warned that it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/11\/154.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597497","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=597497"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/597497\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/597486"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/597498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=597497"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=597497"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=597497"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=597497"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=597497"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}