{"id":596913,"date":"2019-07-11T03:58:20","date_gmt":"2019-07-11T03:58:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/11\/egypts-inflation-rate-in-single-digits-for-first-time-since-march-2016-cbe-still-expected-to-hold-rates\/"},"modified":"2019-07-11T03:58:20","modified_gmt":"2019-07-11T03:58:20","slug":"egypts-inflation-rate-in-single-digits-for-first-time-since-march-2016-cbe-still-expected-to-hold-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/11\/egypts-inflation-rate-in-single-digits-for-first-time-since-march-2016-cbe-still-expected-to-hold-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s inflation rate in single digits for first time since March 2016, CBE still expected to hold rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Inflation hits lowest levels in over three years, but mind the subsidy cuts in next month\u2019s reading:<\/b> Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate dropped to 9.4% in June from 14.1% in May, the first time the reading has come in single digits since March 2016<\/a>, the CBE said (pdf)<\/a> in a statement on Wednesday. Capmas attributed the drop<\/a> to a 2.2% month-on-month decline in food prices. The drop follows a surprisingly uptick in headline inflation the previous month<\/a> to 15.1% from 13% in April, following a downward trend which began in February. Annual core inflation came at 6.4%, down from 7.8% in May, said the CBE. Bloomberg<\/a> and Reuters<\/a> also have the story.<\/p>\n

Base effect could explain the drop:<\/b> \u201cThe drop is a result of a favorable base effect of 2018, which saw energy prices go up in June by 50%, followed by a pickup in inflation, whereas this June saw no fiscal measures,\u201d said CI Capital economist Noaman Khalid.<\/p>\n

The new figures have pushed analysts to lower their projections for inflation this year.<\/b> \u201cWe revised downward our inflation rates for 2H2019, expecting an average reading of 8.8% (versus our earlier estimate of 13.8%) only on the back of adjusted calculations following the new low figure registered in June,\u201d Beltone Financial said. Pharos Holding has also revised its inflation forecasts for July, August, and September to 9.9%, 10.8%, and 9%, respectively, said Radwa El Swaify, head of research at the investment bank. Shuaa Securities also said it saw July inflation coming at lower than 14.5%, as previously expected, but preferred not to give out a specific range. \u201cWe\u2019re looking for 10-11% in July and August, single-digits from September to November before ending the year at 10-12%,\u201d said EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha.<\/p>\n

Good news for carry traders: <\/b>The lower inflation rate increases the real yield in investment, which could help maintain a healthy appetite in the treasury market, CI Capital\u2019s Khalid says. Foreign holdings in Egyptian treasury bonds have been recovering since the beginning of this year, rising to around USD 18.7 bn<\/a> as of June.<\/p>\n

REVISED INTEREST RATE POLL- <\/b>Despite the drop, the CBE is still widely expected to hold its key interest rates<\/b> in its MPC meeting later today in light of the government raising fuel prices between 16% and 30% earlier this month<\/a> and new electricity subsidy cuts coming into effect. Four of the nine economists we polled earlier this week<\/a> maintained their prediction that the CBE to keep the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively. Even those who see a high chance of a rate cut still think the CBE will prioritize the impact of the subsidy cuts. \u201cFalling inflation, coupled with the dovish shift among central banks around the globe, increases the chances of an interest rate cut. But we think that the CBE will want to assess the impact of electricity and fuel price hikes that took effect this month,\u201d Capital Economics said in a note yesterday.<\/p>\n

Pharos Holding has revised its position, expecting the CBE to cut the rates by 100 bps in today\u2019s meeting.<\/b> With the high demand from foreign investors for EGP treasuries, the strengthening of the EGP, and the newly revised projections for inflation this year, analysts at Pharos believe that the environment is ripe for an interest rate cut.<\/p>\n

Naeem Brokerage\u2019s Allen Sandeep also maintained his position<\/b> that the CBE will ease monetary policy by cutting rates by 100 bps today<\/b>, telling Enterprise yesterday that the new inflation figures only confirmed his forecast. \u201cFor the months of July and August, we expect the monthly inflation rate to rise on account of the latest round of energy subsidy cuts; however, with the price hikes (in percentage terms) being well below 2018 levels, the uptick in inflation should be relatively muted, leaving some room for monetary easing,\u201d Naeem said in a note yesterday.<\/p>\n

If not now, then when?<\/b> Shuaa Securities\u2019 Esraa Ahmed said she expected a cut in August or September \u2014 instead of November as previously forecasted \u2014 should the July figures rise at a moderate level. Other analysts have told Enterprise that they also saw cuts coming earlier than initially expected, but preferred not to say when just yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflation hits lowest levels in over three years, but mind the subsidy cuts in next month\u2019s reading: Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate dropped to 9.4% in June from 14.1% in May, the first time the reading has come in single digits since March 2016, the CBE said (pdf) in a statement on Wednesday. Capmas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":596914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,182,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-596913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"be26db9f-f551-49e9-965c-c2513f9d675a","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1946.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[596908],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s inflation rate in single digits for first time since March 2016, CBE still expected to hold rates - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/11\/egypts-inflation-rate-in-single-digits-for-first-time-since-march-2016-cbe-still-expected-to-hold-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s inflation rate in single digits for first time since March 2016, CBE still expected to hold rates\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflation hits lowest levels in over three years, but mind the subsidy cuts in next month\u2019s reading: Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation rate dropped to 9.4% in June from 14.1% in May, the first time the reading has come in single digits since March 2016, the CBE said (pdf) in a statement on Wednesday. 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To put that into perspective: headline inflation was at 13.5% in July 2018,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/1072.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599827,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/13\/egypt-inflation-drops-in-december-falling-within-cbes-year-end-targets\/","url_meta":{"origin":596913,"position":1},"title":"Egypt inflation drops in December, falling within CBE\u2019s year-end targets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation drops in December, falling within CBE\u2019s year-end targets: Annual headline inflation dropped to 12.0% in December, down from 15.7% the previous month, according to a statement from the central bank (pdf). 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Annual core inflation, meanwhile, which doesn\u2019t\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/1\/1470.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574508,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/13\/inflation-hits-10-month-low-as-food-prices-continue-to-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":596913,"position":2},"title":"Inflation hits 10-month low as food prices continue to fall","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation hits 10-month low as food prices continue to fall: Egypt\u2019s annual urban inflation decelerated to 3.4% in August \u2014 its lowest level since October 2019, according to Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) calculations (pdf) of Capmas figures. Inflation cooled last month from 4.2% in July. The falling headline rate,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/144.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594912,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/11\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-six-and-a-half-year-lows-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":596913,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year lows in August","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Headline inflation falls to six-and-a-half year low in August, confounding expectations: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate fell to 7.5% in August from 8.7% in July, a low not seen January 2013, official data showed yesterday. Figures released by Capmas showed that monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% last month from 1.8%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1816.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564507,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely\/","url_meta":{"origin":596913,"position":4},"title":"Headline inflation slowed last month \u2014 does it make a rate cut more likely?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020, and closing in on a 3.7% record low reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/429.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592919,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/12\/egypts-core-inflation-rises-fractionally-in-october-cbe-sells-eur-695-mn-in-one-year-eur-denominated-treasury-bills\/","url_meta":{"origin":596913,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s core inflation rises fractionally in October; CBE sells EUR 695 mn in one-year EUR-denominated treasury bills","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s annual core inflation rose marginally in October to 2.7% from 2.6% the previous month, the CBE said yesterday (pdf). Annual headline inflation dropped to 2.4% last month, marking its lowest reading in nearly a decade, as we noted yesterday. Headline inflation accounts for a basket of goods and services\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596913\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/596908"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596914"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596913"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=596913"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=596913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}