{"id":596587,"date":"2019-07-02T12:57:42","date_gmt":"2019-07-02T12:57:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/02\/the-trade-war-isnt-affecting-emerging-markets-as-much-as-you-thought\/"},"modified":"2019-07-02T12:57:42","modified_gmt":"2019-07-02T12:57:42","slug":"the-trade-war-isnt-affecting-emerging-markets-as-much-as-you-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/02\/the-trade-war-isnt-affecting-emerging-markets-as-much-as-you-thought\/","title":{"rendered":"The trade war isn\u2019t affecting emerging markets as much as you thought"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The trade war isn\u2019t affecting emerging markets as much as you thought:<\/b> Ever since Donald Trump made the first move in the ongoing US-China trade duel last year, financial commentators have ruminated on how emerging markets are about to experience a slow-mo economic calamity. But they appear to have jumped the gun. New data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) shows that emerging markets have perhaps fared a little better than the experts first thought. Inflows to non-China emerging markets came to around USD 23 bn in 2Q2019, according to the IIF\u2019s capital flow tracker published last week. This marks a 25% fall from the USD 31 bn that made its way into non-China EMs in the first quarter.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is still a very healthy pace,\u201d<\/b> IIF chief economist Robin Brooks writes in the report, but cautions that the current overhang in EM assets will present an obstacle to new inflows. To be sure, the current \u2018Trade Tantrum\u2019 predicament pales in comparison to last year\u2019s EM Zombie Apocalypse. You only need to glance at the above graph to see how far away non-China EMs are from a repeat of the 2013 or 2018 experiences.<\/p>\n

This is still a significant drop-off though:<\/b> Make no mistake, an USD 8 bn quarterly fall shouldn\u2019t just be dismissed as a non-event. And while the IIF might call these figures \u201cremarkably robust,\u201d it remains crucial for emerging markets that the US and China come to some sort of truce as soon as possible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The trade war isn\u2019t affecting emerging markets as much as you thought: Ever since Donald Trump made the first move in the ongoing US-China trade duel last year, financial commentators have ruminated on how emerging markets are about to experience a slow-mo economic calamity. But they appear to have jumped the gun. New data from […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":596588,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[116,168,115,72,127,1510,132,117,3605],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-596587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-china","tag-diplomacy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-politics","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-trade","tag-us","tag-us-china-trade-war","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b666beae-2863-4732-a8ff-192b2abe15fb","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/2953.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[596570],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nThe trade war isn\u2019t affecting emerging markets as much as you thought - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/02\/the-trade-war-isnt-affecting-emerging-markets-as-much-as-you-thought\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The trade war isn\u2019t affecting emerging markets as much as you thought\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The trade war isn\u2019t affecting emerging markets as much as you thought: Ever since Donald Trump made the first move in the ongoing US-China trade duel last year, financial commentators have ruminated on how emerging markets are about to experience a slow-mo economic calamity. 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Many EM economies are dependent on exporting\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/2688.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598886,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/11\/etfs-a-magnet-for-em-investors-but-not-all-markets-are-equal\/","url_meta":{"origin":596587,"position":1},"title":"ETFs a magnet for EM investors \u2014 but not all markets are equal","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EM ETFs attract USD 84 bn in inflows in 16 months \u2014 but not all markets are equal: ETFs that specialize in emerging markets drew some USD 84 bn in the 16 months leading up to mid-April. But statistics from financial data provider EPFR show that 80% of inflows went\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1232.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597208,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/18\/development-in-emerging-markets-is-being-held-back\/","url_meta":{"origin":596587,"position":2},"title":"Development in emerging markets is being held back","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Ominous EM outlook of the week: Deglobalization, the Chinese slowdown, and a decade of financial stimulus in advanced economies are holding back emerging markets from catching up with the developed world, Jonathan Wheatley writes in the Financial Times. Emerging markets seemed destined for alignment with the West earlier this century,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/3044.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598835,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/10\/the-thin-grey-line-between-frontier-markets-and-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":596587,"position":3},"title":"The thin grey line between frontier markets and emerging markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXPLAINER FOR NON-FINANCE GEEKS- The thin grey line between frontier and emerging markets: In a recent explainer on frontier markets, Bloomberg makes a point of calling them the \u201csmaller siblings\u201d of emerging markets, a very popular \u2014 albeit simplistic \u2014 comparison. The reality is a little more nuanced considering the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/2130.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568808,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/04\/trade-growth-between-emerging-economies-is-flatlining\/","url_meta":{"origin":596587,"position":4},"title":"Trade growth between emerging economies is flatlining","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Trade growth between emerging economies is flatlining: Expectations that sluggish growth in developed economies would stimulate intra-EM trade look to have been proven wrong as trade between emerging economies continues to flatline, Steve Johnson writes in the Financial Times. Although EM exports heading to other developing countries did leap from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/57.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601492,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/03\/default-rates-low-as-emerging-markets-weather-crises\/","url_meta":{"origin":596587,"position":5},"title":"Default rates low as emerging markets weather crises","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Default rates low as emerging markets weather crises: Default rates on EM corporate bonds were lower than those in developed markets last year, despite the strengthening USD, the US-China trade war, and financial crises in Argentina and Turkey, Steve Johnson writes in the Financial Times. New data reveals that just\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/3390.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596587\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/596570"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596588"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596587"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=596587"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=596587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}