{"id":596315,"date":"2019-08-25T04:00:07","date_gmt":"2019-08-25T04:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/the-us-may-not-be-as-close-to-a-recession-as-the-yield-curve-suggests\/"},"modified":"2019-08-25T04:00:07","modified_gmt":"2019-08-25T04:00:07","slug":"the-us-may-not-be-as-close-to-a-recession-as-the-yield-curve-suggests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/the-us-may-not-be-as-close-to-a-recession-as-the-yield-curve-suggests\/","title":{"rendered":"The US may not be as close to a recession as the yield curve suggests"},"content":{"rendered":"

The US is actually not as close to a recession as it seems, regardless of the chatter about the inverted yield curve:<\/b> You know how everybody and their mother has been fretting over an impending recession in the US? It\u2019s actually \u201ca less than 50-50 proposition,\u201d Peter Coy writes for Bloomberg<\/a>. The number of economists predicting a downturn has actually declined since the beginning of the year: 40% of economists surveyed last week forecast a recession by the end of 2020, compared to 52% back in February. And according to Bloomberg\u2019s poll of economists, the median forecast sees the US economy growing at a 1.8% clip next year.<\/p>\n

The inverted yield curve just isn\u2019t what it used to be back in the day:<\/b> Unlike times past, these days it doesn\u2019t take much to invert the yield curve. Long-term bonds were not always the safe haven asset they are today, and had to offer higher yields in order to attract investors. This is the traditional upward sloping yield curve, featuring a sizeable difference between the rates offered on 2-year and 10-year bonds. Now, the US 10-year treasury is seen as one of the safest fixed-income assets, which has resulted in increased demand and a drop in yields. The upward slope of the yield curve has gradually disappeared as 10-year bond yields have fallen closer to rates on short-term bonds (in econo-speak, this is what is referred to as a \u201cflattening\u201d of the yield curve). Whereas before an inverted curve necessitated a substantial drop in long-term yields, these days it may only take a slight decline. What this means is that the inverted yield curve can no longer be assumed the harbinger of recession that it once was.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US is actually not as close to a recession as it seems, regardless of the chatter about the inverted yield curve: You know how everybody and their mother has been fretting over an impending recession in the US? It\u2019s actually \u201ca less than 50-50 proposition,\u201d Peter Coy writes for Bloomberg. The number of economists […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":596316,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9003],"tags":[104,72,117,2397],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-596315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-worth-reading","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-us","tag-worth-reading","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"85cff840-7eaf-4468-8391-893c1f89183c","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/743.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[596294],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nThe US may not be as close to a recession as the yield curve suggests - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/the-us-may-not-be-as-close-to-a-recession-as-the-yield-curve-suggests\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The US may not be as close to a recession as the yield curve suggests\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The US is actually not as close to a recession as it seems, regardless of the chatter about the inverted yield curve: You know how everybody and their mother has been fretting over an impending recession in the US? 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And last week the alarm began to ring again, setting off fevered speculation in the financial\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Worth watching"","block_context":{"text":"Worth watching","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-watching\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/2572.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595961,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/15\/us-recession-indicator-flashes-red-as-weak-economic-data-triggers-global-stock-sell-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":596315,"position":1},"title":"US recession indicator flashes red as weak economic data triggers global stock sell-off","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"US recession indicator flashes red as weak economic data triggers global stock sell-off: Financial markets recoiled yesterday as poor German and Chinese data provided further evidence of a global economic slowdown. US and European equities were slammed while a bond rally in the US pushed yields on 10-year treasuries below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/Stock-trader-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596159,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/20\/what-were-tracking-on-20-august-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":596315,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 20 August 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"We\u2019re just two days away from the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The general consensus among economists we polled in our survey this week is that the MPC will push ahead with the first rate cut since February, with most anticipating a 100 bps cut.Naeem Holdings\u2019 Yara\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":589307,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/06\/25\/us-bond-markets-convinced-recession-is-brewing\/","url_meta":{"origin":596315,"position":3},"title":"US bond markets convinced recession is brewing","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Inverted yield curve in treasuries is a telltale sign of an incoming downturn","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/1231.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594602,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/02\/egypts-inverted-yield-curve\/","url_meta":{"origin":596315,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inverted yield curve","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s inverted yield curve: The financial press last month was awash with commentary on the brief inversions of the 2-year 10-year US treasury yield curve. Here in Egypt, the yield curve has been inverted since the EGP float in November 2016. 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