{"id":596258,"date":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","date_gmt":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists\/"},"modified":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","modified_gmt":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","slug":"cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE likely to cut rates today -economists"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> There\u2019s a growing consensus for a rate cut today: <\/b>The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by \u201cat least\u201d 100 basis points when it meets later today as easing inflation and a stable EGP offset concerns of a sell-off, according to 10 of 12 analysts polled yesterday by Bloomberg<\/a>. The other two anticipated the CBE will hold. Three-quarters of economists we surveyed this week<\/a> also see the central bank easing (with most anticipating a 100 bps cut). Ten out of 13 economists polled by Reuters<\/a> this week expect a cut, with seven forecasting a 100 bps cut, three expecting a deeper 150 bps cut, and three forecasting a hold. The MPC last cut interest rates in February, when the overnight deposit and lending rates were reduced by 100 bps to 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively.<\/p>\n

Joining the chorus is Naeem Holdings, which earlier this week had expected the CBE to keep rates on hold.<\/b> \u201cWe observe that prices of some essential food items (in particular, vegetables) continue to decline in August, which should give the CBE comfortable room to cut rates,\u201d Allen Sandeep told Enterprise. Sandeep now believes the CBE could cut rates by as much as 200 bps.<\/p>\n

The carry trade shouldn\u2019t be an issue:<\/b> Egypt would remain one of the most attractive carry trades in the world, even after a rate cut, EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha, pointed out. Interest rates would still be some of the highest in emerging markets, providing \u201ca margin to cut the interest rate without halting or affecting the competitiveness of the carry trade,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

The country\u2019s reform story is solid enough to point the CBE in the direction of a rate cut,<\/b> says Doug Bitcon, fund manager at the regionally-focused Rasmala Investment Bank, in a separate Bloomberg interview (watch, runtime: 4:15<\/a>). The budget deficit declining to 8.2% of GDP, the current account deficit narrowing to nearly 1%, and the economy growing at a near-5% clip are a few examples of the positive indicators. Bitcon, too, says that the risk of a currency sell-off is low, and that Egypt will remain the region\u2019s most attractive carry trade following a rate cut. Foreign holdings in Egyptian treasury bonds have risen significantly so far this year, coming in at around USD 19.2 bn<\/a> as of mid-June compared toUSD 13.1 bn<\/a> in January.<\/p>\n

Could Egypt\u2019s central bank cut rates by up to 550 bps until next year as some expect? <\/b>This would depend on the evolution of inflation over the next few months and how the recent subsidy cuts will impact prices, Bitcon said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a growing consensus for a rate cut today: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by \u201cat least\u201d 100 basis points when it meets later today as easing inflation and a stable EGP offset concerns of a sell-off, according to 10 of 12 analysts polled yesterday by Bloomberg. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":596259,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[2082,72,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-596258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-carry-trade","tag-enterpriseam","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"771b4b6d-7d5a-405c-bb2f-f7362a33d1de","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/580.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[596253],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCBE likely to cut rates today -economists - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CBE likely to cut rates today -economists\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There\u2019s a growing consensus for a rate cut today: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by \u201cat least\u201d 100 basis points when it meets later today as easing inflation and a stable EGP offset concerns of a sell-off, according to 10 of 12 analysts polled yesterday by Bloomberg. 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The economists cited the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567095,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":596258,"position":1},"title":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting. A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":596258,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567288,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/19\/against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":596258,"position":3},"title":"Against analyst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged when it met on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596299,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/25\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-for-the-first-time-since-february\/","url_meta":{"origin":596258,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates for the first time since February","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts interest rates for the first time since February: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 150 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s \u201crelatively tame\u201d inflation figures, declining unemployment rates, and increasing GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/2941.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593045,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":596258,"position":5},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with market expectations: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited inflation\u2019s continued deceleration in October, with annual headline inflation hitting its lowest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596258\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/596253"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596258"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=596258"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=596258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}