{"id":596255,"date":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","date_gmt":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-22-august-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","modified_gmt":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-22-august-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-22-august-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 22 August 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s the day, ladies and gents:<\/b> The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets later today to decide on interest rates. Consensus among economists polled by Enterprise<\/a> and Reuters<\/a> is that the central bank will cut rates, with most anticipating a 100 bps cut. And 10 out of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg yesterday<\/a> also wagered that it will resume easing. We have more insights and analysis on where the CBE\u2019s monetary policy is heading over the coming months in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/a> Is Powell going to tell markets what they want to hear this weekend?<\/b> As central bankers gather in Jackson Hole tomorrow, markets will be waiting with bated breath for Fed chairman Jay Powell to signal the bank\u2019s next move on interest rates. But disagreement among Fed officials revealed yesterday means that he is unlikely to offer anything concrete, analysts tell the Associated Press<\/a>. Minutes released yesterday<\/a> showed that Fed officials were sharply divided about last month\u2019s 25 bps cut<\/a>, with \u201cseveral\u201d wanting to keep rates on hold and \u201ca couple\u201d preferring a deeper 50 bps cut. \u201cI am expecting he will cautiously hint at another quarter point cut, but he doesn\u2019t have everyone on board,\u201d Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said. The yield curve between US 2-year and 10-year bonds briefly inverted again<\/a> after the minutes were released.<\/p>\n

A lack of ammo is also a problem:<\/b> Give how low interest rates are already, Powell may not want to signal further rate cuts for fear of diluting the few policy tools he has at his disposal. \u201cIt would be dangerous for him to signal more rate cuts are coming, given the fact he has precious little ammunition left,\u201d Sung Won Sohn, economist at Loyola Marymount University, said.<\/p>\n

Signalling multiple rate cuts is probably off the cards:<\/b> Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics, said that hinting at multiple cuts would stoke fears of a recession further, and undermine business and consumer confidence. \u201cI think he will want to err on the side of arguing that more rate cuts seem likely, just because the economy is slowing, and he doesn\u2019t want to tip the economy over into a recession,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

US stocks continued to rebound yesterday,<\/b> after retailers Target and Lowe\u2019s posted strong quarterly earnings, the FT says<\/a>. The S&P 500 finished up 0.8%, and both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq closed 0.9% in the green.<\/p>\n

And EM currencies rose as the USD weakened<\/b> ahead of Powell\u2019s speech, Reuters reports<\/a>. The ZAR, KRW and RUB all saw gains against the USD as hopes for renewed stimulus grew. \u201cA lot depends on the Fed\u2019s stance, whether an indication of interest rate cuts is down to global growth expectations being lowered or larger systematic risks,\u201d said Roubesh Adaya, senior investment specialist, fixed income at Aberdeen Standard Investments. \u201cOr if the Fed does nothing as well, that can be taken as an indication that things are not as bad as expected.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analysts say that EMs could benefit from movements in US markets,<\/b> the Wall Street Journal reports<\/a>. Gustavo Medeiros, portfolio manager at Ashmore, said in a note Tuesday that falling yields in the US will encourage inflows into EM fixed-income assets, especially bonds denominated in USD. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, predicted that the USD will peak later this year, which will \u201cdisproportionately benefit international equities, led by EM equities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Exhibit A:<\/b> International financial group Mirabaud has hedged 50% of its equity exposure in emerging markets and Europe, having made recommendations to clients to do so in both February and May, chief economist Gero Jung told Dow Jones Newswires, according to a piece in the WSJ<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Germany sold its first-ever negative yield 30-year bonds yesterday<\/b> \u201cin another sign of how investors\u2019 desperation for safe assets is inflating their value,\u201d the Wall Street Journal reports<\/a>. The zero-coupon bonds attracted investors enough that they purchased the notes for more than face value, making the total yield on the bonds negative.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Bulgaria\u2019s Kristalina Georgieva is now a step closer to becoming the new IMF boss<\/b> after the international lender agreed to scrap a rule preventing people aged 65 years or older from becoming the managing director, the Financial Times notes<\/a>. Georgieva, who currently serves as the World Bank chief executive, was nominated for the position by the EU in a vote earlier this month<\/a>. The IMF will vote on the final list of candidates on 4 October.<\/p>\n

\n

New \u201cmoderate Islamist\u201d Tunisian president on the way?<\/b> Some say Abdelfattah Mourou, a member of Tunisia\u2019s Ennahda party who is running in next month\u2019s presidential elections, could break the mold by being a leader who stands for political Islam while holding relatively progressive values, Reuters reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s the day, ladies and gents: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets later today to decide on interest rates. Consensus among economists polled by Enterprise and Reuters is that the central bank will cut rates, with most anticipating a 100 bps cut. And 10 out of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg yesterday […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[116,7106,115,72,724,127,351,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-596255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-china","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-monetary-policy","tag-politics","tag-tunisia","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"3f8aad69-84a7-4a86-9ad8-f768c1430632","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[596253],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat we\u2019re tracking on 22 August 2019 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-22-august-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 22 August 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today\u2019s the day, ladies and gents: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets later today to decide on interest rates. 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The general consensus among economists we polled in our survey this week is that the MPC will push ahead with the first rate cut since February, with most anticipating a 100 bps cut.Naeem Holdings\u2019 Yara\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596209,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/21\/what-were-tracking-on-21-august-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 21 August 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Eid news slowdown is showing no signs of letting up... Tomorrow is interest rate day: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow. Three-quarters of economists surveyed by Enterprise this week see the central bank easing (with most anticipating a 100 bps\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568245,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/23\/what-were-tracking-on-23-december-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 23 December 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome to Christmas Eve Eve, for those of you who are observing. We can\u2019t say we\u2019re very interested in asking mom and dad for early permission to open just one gift that 2020 has left for us under the tree.The big story this morning: Rania\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591965,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/23\/what-were-tracking-on-monday-23-december-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on Monday, 23 December 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The long-awaited cabinet shuffle materialized yesterday, bringing six new faces to the cabinet table and a handful of surprises, including Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly being tapped to drum up investment in all of its flavors. We have chapter and verse in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below. We also have a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548701,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/18\/this-morning-what-will-happen-at-todays-monetary-policy-committee-meeting-now-that-amer-has-resigned\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":4},"title":"THIS MORNING: What will happen at today\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meeting now that Amer has resigned?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning wonderful people, and welcome to a fantastic Thursday morning dominated by one big story: Who will be the next governor of the Central Bank of Egypt?Whoever it is, the odds are good we\u2019re going to be in safe hands: Egypt has a very deep bench of talented bankers\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592957,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/13\/what-were-tracking-on-13-november-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 13 November 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The launch of Egypt\u2019s sovereign wealth fund (which we now know is called THARAA, or \u201cwealth\u201d in Arabic) again dominates headlines this morning. CEO Ayman Soliman held a media roundtable, and we had a chat with him later about the fund, its operating principles, and how it aims to attract\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596255\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/596253"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596255"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=596255"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=596255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}