{"id":596255,"date":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","date_gmt":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-22-august-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","modified_gmt":"2019-08-22T04:00:25","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-22-august-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-22-august-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 22 August 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s the day, ladies and gents:<\/b> The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets later today to decide on interest rates. Consensus among economists polled by Enterprise<\/a> and Reuters<\/a> is that the central bank will cut rates, with most anticipating a 100 bps cut. And 10 out of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg yesterday<\/a> also wagered that it will resume easing. We have more insights and analysis on where the CBE\u2019s monetary policy is heading over the coming months in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/a> Is Powell going to tell markets what they want to hear this weekend?<\/b> As central bankers gather in Jackson Hole tomorrow, markets will be waiting with bated breath for Fed chairman Jay Powell to signal the bank\u2019s next move on interest rates. But disagreement among Fed officials revealed yesterday means that he is unlikely to offer anything concrete, analysts tell the Associated Press<\/a>. Minutes released yesterday<\/a> showed that Fed officials were sharply divided about last month\u2019s 25 bps cut<\/a>, with \u201cseveral\u201d wanting to keep rates on hold and \u201ca couple\u201d preferring a deeper 50 bps cut. \u201cI am expecting he will cautiously hint at another quarter point cut, but he doesn\u2019t have everyone on board,\u201d Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton said. The yield curve between US 2-year and 10-year bonds briefly inverted again<\/a> after the minutes were released.<\/p>\n

A lack of ammo is also a problem:<\/b> Give how low interest rates are already, Powell may not want to signal further rate cuts for fear of diluting the few policy tools he has at his disposal. \u201cIt would be dangerous for him to signal more rate cuts are coming, given the fact he has precious little ammunition left,\u201d Sung Won Sohn, economist at Loyola Marymount University, said.<\/p>\n

Signalling multiple rate cuts is probably off the cards:<\/b> Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody\u2019s Analytics, said that hinting at multiple cuts would stoke fears of a recession further, and undermine business and consumer confidence. \u201cI think he will want to err on the side of arguing that more rate cuts seem likely, just because the economy is slowing, and he doesn\u2019t want to tip the economy over into a recession,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

US stocks continued to rebound yesterday,<\/b> after retailers Target and Lowe\u2019s posted strong quarterly earnings, the FT says<\/a>. The S&P 500 finished up 0.8%, and both the Dow Jones and Nasdaq closed 0.9% in the green.<\/p>\n

And EM currencies rose as the USD weakened<\/b> ahead of Powell\u2019s speech, Reuters reports<\/a>. The ZAR, KRW and RUB all saw gains against the USD as hopes for renewed stimulus grew. \u201cA lot depends on the Fed\u2019s stance, whether an indication of interest rate cuts is down to global growth expectations being lowered or larger systematic risks,\u201d said Roubesh Adaya, senior investment specialist, fixed income at Aberdeen Standard Investments. \u201cOr if the Fed does nothing as well, that can be taken as an indication that things are not as bad as expected.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analysts say that EMs could benefit from movements in US markets,<\/b> the Wall Street Journal reports<\/a>. Gustavo Medeiros, portfolio manager at Ashmore, said in a note Tuesday that falling yields in the US will encourage inflows into EM fixed-income assets, especially bonds denominated in USD. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, predicted that the USD will peak later this year, which will \u201cdisproportionately benefit international equities, led by EM equities.\u201d<\/p>\n

Exhibit A:<\/b> International financial group Mirabaud has hedged 50% of its equity exposure in emerging markets and Europe, having made recommendations to clients to do so in both February and May, chief economist Gero Jung told Dow Jones Newswires, according to a piece in the WSJ<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Germany sold its first-ever negative yield 30-year bonds yesterday<\/b> \u201cin another sign of how investors\u2019 desperation for safe assets is inflating their value,\u201d the Wall Street Journal reports<\/a>. The zero-coupon bonds attracted investors enough that they purchased the notes for more than face value, making the total yield on the bonds negative.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Bulgaria\u2019s Kristalina Georgieva is now a step closer to becoming the new IMF boss<\/b> after the international lender agreed to scrap a rule preventing people aged 65 years or older from becoming the managing director, the Financial Times notes<\/a>. Georgieva, who currently serves as the World Bank chief executive, was nominated for the position by the EU in a vote earlier this month<\/a>. The IMF will vote on the final list of candidates on 4 October.<\/p>\n

\n

New \u201cmoderate Islamist\u201d Tunisian president on the way?<\/b> Some say Abdelfattah Mourou, a member of Tunisia\u2019s Ennahda party who is running in next month\u2019s presidential elections, could break the mold by being a leader who stands for political Islam while holding relatively progressive values, Reuters reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s the day, ladies and gents: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets later today to decide on interest rates. Consensus among economists polled by Enterprise and Reuters is that the central bank will cut rates, with most anticipating a 100 bps cut. And 10 out of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg yesterday […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[116,7106,115,72,724,127,351,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-596255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-china","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-monetary-policy","tag-politics","tag-tunisia","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"3f8aad69-84a7-4a86-9ad8-f768c1430632","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[596253],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat we\u2019re tracking on 22 August 2019 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-22-august-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 22 August 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today\u2019s the day, ladies and gents: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets later today to decide on interest rates. 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The lone\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":632462,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/02\/12\/what-were-tracking-this-week-59\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s interest rate week, and the folks on the sell side aren\u2019t so certain we\u2019ll see a rate cut: The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday to review rates.Our friends at Pharos think the MPC is most likely to maintain rates, but if a cut does come, it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":651497,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/02\/14\/what-were-tracking-this-week-207\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 February 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets on Thursday, a Reuters poll suggests. Nine out of 13 economists polled forecast the bank will hold overnight deposit rates at 14.75% and overnight lending rates at 15.75%. \"Higher interest rates will not help\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":642527,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/08\/16\/what-were-tracking-this-week-140\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 August 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Economists polled by Reuters believe that the central bank is likely to leave interest rates unchanged when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday. \"High interest rates are acting to dissuade the private sector from investing and, therefore, economic growth will not be optimised, as few new jobs are, so\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":622207,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/29\/more-what-were-tracking-on-29-november-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":4},"title":"More what we\u2019re tracking on 29 November 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Further afield: The US-China trade war and the reception accorded Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be the highlights of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires taking place this weekend. And the jockeying over a potential production cut to prop up prices is well underway ahead of next Thursday\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":636223,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/12\/27\/what-were-tracking-this-week-93\/","url_meta":{"origin":596255,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 December 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow to review key interest rates. The emerging consensus seems to be that the meeting won\u2019t see interest rates cut after a surprise m-o-m surge in inflation in November.","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596255"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596255\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/596253"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596255"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=596255"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=596255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}