{"id":596124,"date":"2019-08-19T04:00:33","date_gmt":"2019-08-19T04:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/19\/what-were-tracking-on-19-august-2019\/"},"modified":"2019-08-19T04:00:33","modified_gmt":"2019-08-19T04:00:33","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-19-august-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/19\/what-were-tracking-on-19-august-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 19 August 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to meet this Thursday, 22 August to review key interest rates.<\/b> Our poll on Sunday<\/a> showed three-quarters of economists predicting that the central bank will cut rates for the first time since February.<\/p>\n

Another case for a rate cut: <\/b>Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh, who was absent from our Sunday poll, expects inflation to remain within the CBE\u2019s target of 9% (+\/-3%) for the remainder of the year, giving the MPC room for a 100 bps cut on Thursday. \u201cWe believe no further fuel price hikes will take place when prices are reviewed in September due to a strengthening EGP and falling global crude prices,\u201d Mamdouh said, adding that the US Federal Reserve\u2019s recent cut will also give the CBE more room to ease rates. She also downplayed the risk of outflows from Egyptian debt, suggesting that the strong EGP and higher real interest rates will continue to make treasuries attractive post-rate cut.<\/p>\n

And Goldman is also predicting a 100 bps cut<\/b>, according to Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will be in France next week to attend the G7 Summit,<\/b> which will run from Sunday to Tuesday in Biarritz.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/a> All eyes on Jackson Hole:<\/b> Federal Reserve officials will gather in Jackson Hole later this week for the annual economic symposium \u2014 and marker watchers will be hanging on Chairman Jay Powell\u2019s every word as he speaks for the first time since the bond market last week showed warning signs of a recession<\/a>. His words will be closely scrutinized for indicators of whether the recent market volatility will persuade the Fed to embark on a full-scale easing cycle, and even restart its crisis-era bond-buying program. Powell\u2019s captioning of last month\u2019s 25 bps cut as a \u201cmid-cycle adjustment\u201d<\/a> marked the start of a volatile August in the financial markets as hopes for a more aggressive easing cycle faded.<\/p>\n

Economists think Powell will keep his cards close to his chest:<\/b> Powell is likely to remain tight-lipped on the direction of US interest rate policy, economists tell MarketWatch<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That could be a risky strategy though:<\/b> A failure to provide concrete signals will disappoint the markets and runs the risk of reigniting volatility, James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, told CNBC<\/a>. \u201cWe could see another plunge in rates. We could see further movement down in yields and the yield curve and more volatility and problems in the markets. He should move aggressively,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Any sign of easing could help EMs claw back losses:<\/b> \u201cPolicy action, including from the Fed, and natural cyclical forces should eventually help activity to recover,\u201d an emailed note from Morgan Stanley analysts seen by Bloomberg<\/a> said. \u201cEM risk assets tend to overshoot and undershoot fair value, with particularly large downside moves in the May-to-October time frame,\u201d they said, adding that lower valuations and more time would be needed before inflows pick up.<\/p>\n

Kudlow appears on Trump TV to quash economic fears:<\/b> \u201cI don\u2019t see a recession at all,\u201d Trump\u2019s top economic official Larry Kudlow told Fox News yesterday (watch, runtime: 12:32<\/a>), citing strong retail and unemployment figures. It\u2019s probably worth bearing in mind, though, that this is Larry Kudlow: the guy who wrote \u201cthere\u2019s no recession coming\u201d<\/a> six months before the biggest economic catastrophe this side of the Great Depression.<\/p>\n

\n

<\/a> Tech IPOs are no longer as appealing and profitable as an investment prospect as they once were<\/b>, the Wall Street Journal says<\/a>. \u201cUnlike during the dot-com era, when very young companies went public, many of today\u2019s IPOs have been making losses for years. With age comes slowing growth.\u201d These companies are also \u201cmore aggressively priced than their predecessors.\u201d Part of the issue here is the delay in contemporary tech companies going to market versus in previous years, because they have access to VC funding and other private market sources, and shareholders tend to favor mergers or acquisitions to an IPO.<\/p>\n

Softbank Group is lending some USD 20 bn to employees so they can buy stakes in its second giant venture-capital Vision Fund<\/b>. The step is highly unusual and potentially risky, especially given the state of the global startup economy. With Softbank also contributing USD 38 bn to the fund itself, it could cumulatively make up more than half the money raised, the WSJ reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n

Suicide bomber targets wedding party in Kabul;<\/b> At least 63 people died and 182 others were injured after a suicide bomber targeted a wedding party in Kabul on Saturday, BBC reports<\/a>. The local branch of Daesh later claimed responsibility<\/a> for the deadliest attack in the Afghan capital this year, which targeted an area with a significant Shia Hazara community. Afghan president Ashraf Ghani condemned the \u201cinhumane attack\u201d in a statement on social media<\/a>, while the Taliban, which is currently in peace talks with the US, called the bombing \u201cforbidden and unjustifiable.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s Foreign Ministry condemned the attack<\/b> in a statement<\/a>, offering condolences and solidarity to the victims\u2019 families and to the country.<\/p>\n

Iran tanker spat:<\/b> Gibraltar has turned down a request by the US to detain an Iranian oil tanker seized by the UK<\/a> in July, the BBC reports<\/a>. Authorities said that they would not grant the request because US sanctions against Iran are not applicable in the EU. Gibraltar lifted the detention order on the Grace-1 vessel on Friday following negotiations with the UK<\/a>, and allowed it to leave yesterday. UK authorities detained the tanker on 4 July over suspicions that it was transporting oil to Syria in breach of international sanctions.<\/p>\n

Argentina\u2019s economy minister Nicolas Dujovne handed in his resignation yesterday<\/b> amid an economic crisis caused by President Mauricio Macri\u2019s shock loss in a primary election last week, the BBC reports<\/a>. The Argentinian peso lost a fifth of its value against the USD and the country\u2019s main stock market crashed 48% in a single day, after the election increased the likelihood that the pro-market Macri will lose October\u2019s presidential vote.<\/p>\n

Is the European Union next in Trump\u2019s sights?<\/b> The Donald railed against EU trade policy at a rally in New Hampshire last Thursday, telling the crowd: \u201cThe European Union is worse than China, just smaller. It treats us horribly: barriers, tariffs, taxes, Bloomberg reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Here we were thinking this was a joke: It turns out Trump actually wants to buy Greenland.<\/b> Trump told reporters yesterday that Greenland would be a \u201cstrategically interesting\u201d purchase for the US and that White House officials \u201care looking at it,\u201d according to the Washington Post (watch, runtime: 1:06<\/a>). Greenlanders may have to wait a while for the privilege of becoming the 51st state of America though, after Trump said the issue \u201cis not number one on the burner.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to meet this Thursday, 22 August to review key interest rates. Our poll on Sunday showed three-quarters of economists predicting that the central bank will cut rates for the first time since February. Another case for a rate cut: Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh, who was absent from […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[434,407,271,984,104,115,72,297,119,349,78,716,3581,1424,724,2231,639,447,117,200,74],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-596124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-afghanistan","tag-argentina","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-europe","tag-financial-markets","tag-interest-rates","tag-ipo-watch","tag-iran","tag-jackson-hole","tag-jerome-powell","tag-monetary-policy","tag-softbank","tag-technology","tag-terrorism","tag-us","tag-venture-capital","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"eee9d846-36fa-4672-8d89-b84458241025","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[596122],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat we\u2019re tracking on 19 August 2019 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/19\/what-were-tracking-on-19-august-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 19 August 2019\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to meet this Thursday, 22 August to review key interest rates. 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The lone\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":596124,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the unexpected inflation rate in August, which dropped to the lowest level in six-and-a-half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602514,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/31\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged\/","url_meta":{"origin":596124,"position":3},"title":"Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Central Bank of Egypt surprises as it leaves interest rates unchanged: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, going against expectations that it would cut rates by as much as 100 bps. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":596124,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":631820,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/03\/28\/what-were-tracking-this-week-54\/","url_meta":{"origin":596124,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 March 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s MPC day tomorrow: The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday to decide on interest rates, amid a universal consensus among the business community that rates will be cut.The Ismail Cabinet is expected to present its draft FY2018-19 budget to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi this week\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596124\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/596122"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596124"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=596124"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=596124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}