{"id":596001,"date":"2019-08-18T04:00:47","date_gmt":"2019-08-18T04:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/"},"modified":"2019-08-18T04:00:47","modified_gmt":"2019-08-18T04:00:47","slug":"enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/","title":{"rendered":"Enterprise Poll: CBE could cut interest rates on Thursday"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a><b> SURVEY- CBE could cut key interest rates this Thursday:<\/b> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could finally cut benchmark interest rates by between 50-100 bps when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to six out of eight economists polled by Enterprise. Easing inflation, coupled with the US Federal Reserve and several emerging market central banks cutting interest rates, relieves much of the pressure on the CBE and leaves room for a cut, according to the economists. Pharos\u2019 Radwa El Swaify forecasts a 100 bps cut due to falling inflation, but said that there is a chance that the CBE could wait until September\u2019s meeting to ride out the residual effects of July\u2019s subsidy cuts. AbouBakr Emam, head of equity research at Sigma Capital, anticipates a more cautious rate cut due to the inflationary effects of the back to school season and energy price hikes, as well as the current instability in the global markets. The MPC <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/02\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps-in-first-mpc-meeting-in-2019\/\">last cut interest rates in February<\/a>, when the overnight deposit and lending rates were reduced by 100 bps to 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p><b>Inflation figures a major boon for the doves: <\/b>Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate<a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/08\/14\/egypts-headline-inflation-falls-to-four-year-low-in-july-despite-subsidy-cuts\/\">dropped against expectations to 8.7% in July<\/a> from 9.4% in June, its lowest recording in four years, while core inflation fell to 5.9% in July from 6.4% in June. The low readings came despite the government raising fuel prices between 16% and 30% in July and new electricity subsidy cuts coming into effect. \u201cThis shows that prices are under control which gives space for the CBE to resume monetary easing and boost economic growth,\u201d HC\u2019s Sara Saada said.<\/p>\n<p><b>Global conditions might not stand in the way of a cut: <\/b>Shuaa Securities\u2019 Esraa Ahmed said that there would be little risk of capital flight if the CBE lowered rates during the current volatility in the global financial markets. \u201cThere is no pressure from the fear of losing portfolio investors in debt because investors will go the highest yield available rather than stock markets with all that\u2019s happening internationally, the ongoing trade wars and recession fears. This could push investors toward debt in moderate risk EMs,\u201d she said. And the US Federal Reserve\u2019s recent rate cut also reduces the risks of outflows from Egyptian domestic data, Saada said.<\/p>\n<p><b>Not everyone agrees though:<\/b> \u201cForeign investments in Egypt\u2019s debt securities are important so the CBE may be obligated to keep rates high,\u201d Mubasher International\u2019s Head of Research Hisham El-Shebiny said. And Mona Bedeir, senior economist at Prime Research, said that although recent inflation data could enable the CBE to cut rates, recent EM volatility caused by the devaluation of the Yuan and events in Argentina may cause it to hang tight. \u201cThe lingering global risk and renewed fears of the deterioration in risk sentiment in emerging markets might precipitate the CBE to remain patient in the upcoming meeting,\u201d she told us.<\/p>\n<p><b>And there are a number of other reasons why the CBE may hold off on making a cut:<\/b> El-Shebiny said that weak FDI inflows, the risk of a financing gap, and geopolitical risks are all factors that could tempt the MPC away from making a cut this month.<\/p>\n<p><b>Beyond August:<\/b> Last month\u2019s unexpectedly low inflation figures have raised expectations that the CBE will accelerate easing during the final months of the year, with Pharos now predicting that 200-300 bps worth of cuts will be made before the end of the year. This will please businesses, <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/06\/13\/businesses-eager-for-interest-rates-to-return-to-pre-float-levels-to-boost-investment\/\">who have called for<\/a> interest rates to return to pre-floatation levels to encourage investment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SURVEY- CBE could cut key interest rates this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could finally cut benchmark interest rates by between 50-100 bps when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to six out of eight economists polled by Enterprise. Easing inflation, coupled with the US Federal Reserve and several emerging [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":596002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[4769,271,611,72,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-596001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-analysts","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c07f6439-3bae-49d5-870e-8bd7554ddeba","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[595996],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Enterprise Poll: CBE could cut interest rates on Thursday - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enterprise Poll: CBE could cut interest rates on Thursday\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"SURVEY- CBE could cut key interest rates this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could finally cut benchmark interest rates by between 50-100 bps when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to six out of eight economists polled by Enterprise. Easing inflation, coupled with the US Federal Reserve and several emerging [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-08-18T04:00:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Enterprise Poll: CBE could cut interest rates on Thursday\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-08-18T04:00:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/\"},\"wordCount\":598,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"Analysts\",\"Central Bank of Egypt\",\"Enterprise Poll\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/18\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-interest-rates-on-thursday\/\",\"name\":\"Enterprise Poll: CBE could cut interest rates on Thursday - 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This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":596001,"position":1},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the unexpected inflation rate in August, which dropped to the lowest level in six-and-a-half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598209,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/19\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-maintain-rates-despite-drop-in-april-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":596001,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to maintain rates despite drop in April inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE to leave key interest rates on hold this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely leave key interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to all 12 economists polled by Enterprise. Respondents cited the likely impact on inflation of upcoming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596723,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/07\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-key-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":596001,"position":3},"title":"Enterprise poll: CBE to leave key interest rates on hold this Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE to leave key interest rates on hold this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt will leave key interest rates on hold when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to all nine economists polled by Enterprise. Respondents cited the inflationary effects of last weekend\u2019s fuel subsidy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":596001,"position":4},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-rates-by-up-to-100-bps-this-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":596001,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise poll: CBE could cut rates by up to 100 bps this Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE could cut key interest rates this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut its key interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, six out of 10 economists surveyed by Enterprise said. Respondents cited the EGP\u2019s recent appreciation as well as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=596001"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/596001\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/595996"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/596002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=596001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=596001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=596001"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=596001"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=596001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}