{"id":595961,"date":"2019-08-15T04:00:51","date_gmt":"2019-08-15T04:00:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/15\/us-recession-indicator-flashes-red-as-weak-economic-data-triggers-global-stock-sell-off\/"},"modified":"2019-08-15T04:00:51","modified_gmt":"2019-08-15T04:00:51","slug":"us-recession-indicator-flashes-red-as-weak-economic-data-triggers-global-stock-sell-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/15\/us-recession-indicator-flashes-red-as-weak-economic-data-triggers-global-stock-sell-off\/","title":{"rendered":"US recession indicator flashes red as weak economic data triggers global stock sell-off"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> US recession indicator flashes red as weak economic data triggers global stock sell-off:<\/b> Financial markets recoiled yesterday as poor German and Chinese data provided further evidence of a global economic slowdown. US and European equities were slammed while a bond rally in the US pushed yields on 10-year treasuries below two-year rates for the first time since 2007, raising fears of a US recession.<\/p>\n

Germany is on the cusp of a recession:<\/b> The German economy contracted in the second quarter as domestic manufacturers struggled to cope with declining global conditions. Data released<\/a> by the Federal Statistics Bureau yesterday showed that output fell by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter from 0.4% growth in the first quarter of the year. Poor data from the country\u2019s export-dependent industrial and manufacturing sectors had raised fears of an oncoming recession in recent weeks as global trade disputes continued to escalate. Manufacturing PMI fell to seven-year lows<\/a> last month, and industrial output contracted unexpectedly<\/a> by 1.5% in June. \u201c[Yesterday\u2019s] GDP report definitely marks the end of a golden decade for the German economy, ING analyst Carsten Brzeski told Reuters<\/a>. \u201cTrade conflicts, global uncertainty and the struggling automotive sector have finally brought [it]... down on its knee.\u201d<\/p>\n

China industrial output hits 17-year low:<\/b> Industrial growth in China fell to levels not seen since 2002 in July, official data showed yesterday. Figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics<\/a> revealed that industrial growth fell to 4.8% y-o-y in July, down from 6.3% in June<\/a>. Analysts said that the weak data points to falling demand across the broader Chinese economy, and some are now forecasting renewed stimulus measures. \u201cThe economy is going to continue to slow down. At a certain point, policymakers will have to step up stimulus to support infrastructure and property. I think it could happen by the end of this year,\u201d Macquarie Group\u2019s Larry Hu told Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n

US and European equities are in the red:<\/b> Major US stock indices were down 3% at the close of play yesterday: both the Dow and the Nasdaq fell 3%, with the Dow shedding 800 points, and the S&P 500 fell 2.9%. European stocks fared slightly better \u2014 although that\u2019s not exactly saying much: the German Dax lost 2.2%, and both the Euro Stoxx 50 and the French CAC 40 sank 2%. The sell off spread to Asia in the early hours of this morning, with all major indices down at least 1.3% as of 04:00 CLT. \u201cInvestors are increasingly selling first and asking questions later,\u201d Alec Young, managing director for global markets research at FTSE Russell, told Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cThe only thing seemingly capable of reversing the volatility is credible evidence global growth is bottoming out. That seems too much to hope for right now.\u201d<\/p>\n

The bond market is now signalling a US recession:<\/b> The US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007<\/a> yesterday as investors seeking safe haven assets caused the yield on US 10-year treasuries to fall below the two-year rate. The yield on 10-year notes fell to 1.623% early in the day, below the 1.634% rate on two-year bonds, before recovering later on, according to CNBC<\/a>. The rate on 30-year bonds also fell to a record low of 2.02%. The curve between two-year and 10-year bonds has proven to be an accurate predictor of recessions in recent history, becoming inverted before almost every recession over the past 50 years.<\/p>\n

But not this time, says Yellen:<\/b> Former Fed chair Janet Yellen tried to calm market fears yesterday, telling Fox Business Network<\/a> that an inverted yield curve does not guarantee a recession. \u201cHistorically, it has been a pretty good signal of recession, and I think that\u2019s when markets pay attention to it, but I would urge that on this occasion it may be a less good signal,\u201d she said. \u201cThe reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields\u201d<\/p>\n

Global banks are being hit hard:<\/b> MSCI\u2019s total return index of developed market bank stocks plummeted to near-record lows against the wider benchmark yesterday as inverted yield curves in the US and UK raised investor fears that banks will begin restricting credit, Bloomberg reports<\/a>. \u201cBond yields are pricing in Armageddon,\u201d said Roelof Salomons, chief strategist at Kempen Capital Management NV. \u201cThe concern is that lower rates will keep economies and corporates afloat but such policy hurts banks\u2019 profitability.\u201d<\/p>\n

And Trump has predictably weighed in on social media<\/b>, once again aiming fire at US Fed chairman Jay Powell: \u201cOur problem is not with China\u2026 Our problem is with the Fed. Raised too much & too fast. Now too slow to cut\u2026 Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!\u201dhe haphazardly wrote on Twitter<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

US recession indicator flashes red as weak economic data triggers global stock sell-off: Financial markets recoiled yesterday as poor German and Chinese data provided further evidence of a global economic slowdown. US and European equities were slammed while a bond rally in the US pushed yields on 10-year treasuries below two-year rates for the first […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":595962,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[82,102,984,104,72,164,119,481,7196,131,120,121,2380,117],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-595961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-bonds","tag-capital-markets","tag-donald-trump","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-equities","tag-financial-markets","tag-germany","tag-industry","tag-manufacturing","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-speed-round","tag-us","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d41c0174-9cce-4c23-8700-5940df4ba7d0","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/Stock-trader-1600px.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[595956],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nUS recession indicator flashes red as weak economic data triggers global stock sell-off - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/15\/us-recession-indicator-flashes-red-as-weak-economic-data-triggers-global-stock-sell-off\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US recession indicator flashes red as weak economic data triggers global stock sell-off\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US recession indicator flashes red as weak economic data triggers global stock sell-off: Financial markets recoiled yesterday as poor German and Chinese data provided further evidence of a global economic slowdown. 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Only six out\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547568,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/27\/forever-inflation-would-be-worse-than-recession-says-central-banks-bank-value-stocks-are-outperforming-equities-but-both-are-down-ytd\/","url_meta":{"origin":595961,"position":1},"title":"Forever-inflation would be worse than recession, says central banks\u2019 bank + Value stocks are outperforming equities \u2014 but both are down YTD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"What\u2019s worse than a recession? Entrenched inflation, influential banking body warns: The Bank for International Settlements \u2014 which performs banking services for central banks worldwide \u2014 has called for a \u201cdecisive\u201d wave of global rate hikes from central banks to curb inflation in its flagship annual economic report (pdf) published\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598081,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/14\/global-market-turmoil-sends-investors-fleeing-emerging-market-shares-and-currencies\/","url_meta":{"origin":595961,"position":2},"title":"Global market turmoil sends investors fleeing emerging market shares and currencies","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Turmoil in global markets had investors fleeing EM and other so-called \u201crisky\u201d assets yesterday. Shares in developed markets also took it on the chin after China said it would hike tariffs on some US 60 bn worth of US imports. Beijing was reacting to Washington\u2019s decision last week to impose\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578844,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/16\/eu-sanctions-to-redraw-global-diesel-markets-us-still-headed-for-recession-despite-slower-inflation-wsj-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":595961,"position":3},"title":"EU sanctions to redraw global diesel markets + US still headed for recession despite slower inflation -WSJ poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"New European sanctions are about to hit Russian oil products \u2014 but expect major re-routing rather than major re-pricing on diesel: After banning shipments on seaborne Russian crude in December, the EU a will ratchet up the pressure on Moscow from 5 February with a ban on refined Russian fuel\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/254.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572457,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/25\/imf-forecasts-deeper-recession-slower-recovery-as-virus-fears-linger\/","url_meta":{"origin":595961,"position":4},"title":"IMF forecasts deeper recession, slower recovery as virus fears linger","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"YOUR DAILY DOSE OF GLOOM- IMF forecasts deeper global recession, slower recovery as virus fears linger: The global economy will suffer a deeper recession than previously expected as the pandemic continues to intensify in some parts of the world, and businesses and consumers continue to reel from the effects of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/272.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549474,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/19\/the-egx-sell-off-continues\/","url_meta":{"origin":595961,"position":5},"title":"The EGX sell-off continues","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"EGX WATCH: Egyptian shares suffered their biggest single-day loss since early July yesterday amid growing investor concerns about global growth. The benchmark index fell 3.1% during trading yesterday to reach its lowest level in seven weeks, leaving it down more than 18% year-to-date. The broader EGX70 index was harder hit,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "EGX"","block_context":{"text":"EGX","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/egx\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/266.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=595961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/595961\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/595956"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/595962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=595961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=595961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=595961"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=595961"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=595961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}